Larry House

A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy

It may sound easy enough, but don't underestimate the long-term economic problems we face. Other "experts" who manage billions of dollars are predicting growth of 1-3% for the next few years--a good-sized chunk of the 10 years. Beyond that, we may face high inflation. On top of all, we have growing budget deficits. Stocks will have a hard time averaging 7.2% per year with that backdrop. I hope it happens, but I don't expect it.

Animal Spirits Are Eating the Green Shoots

Caution is certainly called for. Large companies in basic businesses that pay some fair dividends can weather the storm. There is no place to hide, so one must decide to hunker down and with what or to just get out of stocks entirely. I am in the former mode. Time will tell if I can weather the hurricane.

10 Notes on the Current Markets

Excellent points and insights as always. I totally agree on Bernanke. It doesn't matter who is in that position going forward; there is no real difference in any of the possible candidates. I too have cooled on TIPS and have sold my position in them. But I am cool on most asset classes right now. Stocks don't look compelling, neither do bonds; I don't see commmodities going on a tear. I probably lean more toward silver right now anything.

Seething Over Liddy's AIG-Goldman Connection

Simon, I have some feelings and thoughts common to yours, but there are greater outrages going on with some of the banks and the government that bother me even more. Liddy and GS are about a 2 on my outrage scale.

AIG Bonuses the Object of Misplaced Outrage

You know Congress can't pass up a photo opportunity; it makes them appear to be doing something.

Why AIG Wasn't Allowed to Fail

Precisely. Thanks for the insight. I have AIG bonds from when it was a robust, going concern (probably rotten on the inside then, but it didn't show--thanks, rating agencies!). AIG has just about sucked the government good will dry as a bone. I think there may be efforts to open old wrecked AIG up and take it apart piece by piece. I may end up holding worthless paper, just like I did with Lehman. I love this country! (I do indeed love my country, but man, we have sure created some gosh awful messes.)

Three Thoughts on Financials

Thanks, David. There is just no end to the messy financial tangles that have to be sorted out. It is very hard to have any confidence in any financial right now.

Time for Investors to Act Against the Depressing Economic Outlook

Some shocking but sound advice.

China Giveth, China Taketh Away

Nothing new here. Just a rehash of current news. Yes, if we only KNOW when the market has reached a bottom and could buy AT THAT POINT, we might make a little money. Now there is an article idea for you--tell us when we are at THAT POINT and should buy!

The Economy, And Why It's Taking So Long to Fix It

Maybe it is just as simple as there is no "fix:" the economy is sick, and the recovery will be long and uncertain.

Valuing Assets: The Clueless Cadre

Going forward--only what a buyer will pay. We are entering a new economic age, and previous values have no bearing on what things will be worth. Everything changes with leveraging out of the picture. My 2003 Ford truck was worth $11K a year ago; now it is worth maybe $7K. Obviously it is depreciating, but the size of the drop is because of the contraction in credit and the growing unwillingness of people to spend cash. Money is worth comparatively more than "things" right now, and it appears that will continue for who knows how long. It is better, in my view, to invest for an income stream now rather than going for growth. Growth is not as valuable now as an income stream--cash. The next decade is going to be a doozy.

AIG Gets the Scarlet Letter

I hold some AIG bonds. The market price has fallen on some to less than 60%. I think they are safe until maturity, but the bond market is betting they aren't.

Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess

We are living in totally unique times. We are going to be tested and tried in ways, I believe, we can't even yet imagine. We have grown fat, weak, and dependent on the government, and I think individuals will have to rise to the occasion and take care of themselves and their families. This is still the land of opportunity, thank God, but we are being refined by fire. We CAN be the better for it, but that is yet to be seen.

Prepare to Sell Monday - Cramer's Mad Money (9/19/08)

I listen to Cramer and read his stuff as one piece of info. He had a video today on TheStreet.com in which he said sell this rally it is "artificial." Then on "Closing Bell" he said everyone is badmouthing the current rescue plan, everyone is calling it "artificial," and we should give it a chance to work. I guess he was talking to himself. I will credit him with this: I was seriously considering taking a position in GE, and I read Cramer saying "buy GE now." I did take that position yesterday. It looks good on paper right now, but it may disappear just as quickly.

Going to Hell in a Handbasket: The Rush To Protect More Stocks

So true. If this current "plan" had been in place two weeks ago, LEH would still be in business. We are a pathetic lot.