Larry MacDonald

With Backwardation, Higher Gas Prices This Summer

I second that. A timely, worthwhile piece.

Oil's Contango - Will the Music Stop?

good article

Gaping Hole in the Deflation Argument

With an output gap = 7% of GDP and not expected to be closed until 2015 (Congressional Budget Office estimate) and capacity utilitization at historic lows, there shouldn't be any inflationary pressures for some time.

FOMC Statement: Skeptical This Will Work

OK, lowering the price of money may not have much of an impact but what about raising the quantity of money?

Is Berkshire a Long Run Buy?

Fitch cuts certain Berkshire Hathaway ratings
The Associated Press March 13, 2009

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s triple-A issuer default rating and senior unsecured debt ratings by one notch, saying a top rating isn't appropriate for financial-oriented holding companies in the current volatile market.

The agency also said its ratings continue to reflect Fitch's long-standing concerns that Berkshire's fortunes are intimately tied to Chairman Warren Buffett and his investment expertise.

www.businessweek.com/a...

The Family Foresight Thought Experiment

Great post.... Benjamin Franklin did something like this over a 2 century period. His estate set up two funds to lend money to help apprentices start their own businesses at 5% over 10 years. Costs kept low by having volunteer administrators. Worked out well -- is the lesson to skip indirect channels -- e.g. financial markets?
fintrend.com/ftf/Artic...

Real Estate [REIT] ETFs

Should you add Cohen & Steers Global Realty Majors ETF (GRI) to the section entitled Broad International REIT Index ETFs? Also, it might help to have the date of the last update in the various sections of the ETF Selector so we know how current it is and don't make the mistake of assuming the lists are full representations of what's available.

Another Housing Bubble to Short

Larry MacDonald is an economist who has been writing about financial markets since 1995. A noncommittal statement would leave the author leeway to wiggle out of his or her advice. Don’t see how that applies here. If in a year or two from now Spanish stocks are higher in absolute terms (for aggressive risk accounts) or relative to US stocks (for less aggressive accounts), we will clearly be able to say he was wrong.

Another Housing Bubble to Short

To see how pairs trading can lower risk and increase the odds of a profit (albeit smaller), see the following links:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
“The pairs trade helps to hedge sector- and market-risk.”

www.valuestockreports....
“By using ETFs to construct pairs trades, a portion of specific risk can be hedged and the odds of profit can likely be increased.”

VIX Call Options As Put Options

ikkyu: See my Aug 20 post entitled "At Least Interest Rates Hikes Are Slowing Down" wherein the appendix has a note about selling the put options at breakeven. It was a bad trade to begin with but I was lucky enough to get out before the collapse.

VIX Call Options As Put Options

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