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Larry Meyers

 
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  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    It's standard statistical analysis that does a successful job of debunking Uber's "study".
    Jan 25, 2015. 04:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    "Uber declined to respond to questions about why it did not include operating costs and fees in its examination of wages for the report."

    Really? REALLY? Gosh, what a surprise? Why do think that is? Because when those are added in, the deal is revealed to be far worse for drivers than claimed.

    I mean, how much more transparent does this need to be for you?
    Jan 24, 2015. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industry Vet: Rideshare Threat To Taxi Medallions 'Vastly Overstated' [View article]
    And a few more thorns in the side of the shorts:

    http://exm.nr/1D3Jl0l

    http://exm.nr/1D3Jl0n
    Jan 24, 2015. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Furthermore, HuffPo points out how totally unreliable this sample is because of the standard deviation. For these "Highly credentialed researchers", they are being disingenuous and/or outright sloppy. That leads us right back to bias because they work for the company!


    "Another question is how realistic the figures are on a month-to-month basis. Krueger told The Huffington Post that the study does examine how drivers' hourly wages vary from month to month, and concluded they were "fairly steady across months.” However, the standard deviation in the study is 19 percent -- that means that assuming a normal distribution, 68 percent of drivers saw earnings swing somewhere between positive and negative 19 percent month to month. The rest of the drivers saw their earnings change even more dramatically."
    Jan 24, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Uber has demonstrated on multiple occasions that it has weak ethics and morals. It is a private company attempting to jack up its valuation. Pay anyone enough and they don't give a crap about their reputation.

    It is PR spin to write up an article that mixes UberX and black car together to find an alleged gross revenue; to use a statistically insignificant and non-diversified sample of 601 people (and only a 11% response rate) as conclusive in any way; to omit true cost of rideshare.

    I have seen dozens of "studies" like this, coming from those who hate consumer lending. The methodology is the same -- obfuscation, omission, non-representative sample, press release -- voila! And I've discredited those studies year after year because it is so easy to do so. This one is no different. The HuffPo article did an excellent job on just one element of it.
    Jan 24, 2015. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    What does TAXI's weighted average LTV have to do with it?

    You have opened a short position on TAXI. Inferring it has a 75% LTV is disingenuous, and part of the scare tactics that include using anonymous sources.

    "Also, you have repeated multiple times that TAXI's LTV is 50%. Where did you get that figure?"

    Actually, it's less. 405.

    http://bit.ly/1D3scEa
    Jan 24, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Anonymous sources are not only of no value, they are of negative value. It simply allows one to make assertions that cannot be verified. Quoted sources, which is what a real journalist uses, offer credibility to a story. "Anonymous sources", especially if they come from someone who has no track record as a journalist, and a stated bias, are to be dismissed by thoughtful readers for obvious reasons.

    Anonymous sources, when used by an experienced journalist such as myself, with 1200 published articles, are only used in limited circumstances.

    You may use anonymous sources on background, to offer a broad scope of a particular issue to educate the journalist.

    But please, keep using them. It further undermines the short thesis.

    I'm happy to educate you on journalistic ethics. If you have any other questions, you are welcome to PM me or ask publicly.
    Jan 24, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    "Uber drivers enjoy higher capacity utilization than taxi drivers in non-peak hours "

    Source? NONE.

    It's all theory! There is NO EVIDENCE that says that any given Uber driver gets more utilization. And again, Uber drivers MAKE LESS MONEY. Every single non-Uber resource confirms this.
    Jan 24, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Along with the usual unsupported assertions:

    "We have noted that lease fees have recently been reduced below TLC caps for the first time in years (perhaps ever) as fleet managers try to retain and lure back lost drivers." Source? NONE.

    "Medallion interest and principal payments are substantial for most owner-drivers" -- "Substantial" is a relative term. It may be to you, but not to the driver, who obviously finds value or he would not be paying it.

    'Assuming a 75% LTV" -- Medallion Financial's is 50%.
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Inthe HuffPo article, revenue is indeed challenged. Not to mention it was done by definitively impeachable sources, because they are UBER EMPLOYEES. That's why it only discussed GROSS wages, because as soon as cost enters the story, the story blows up, as does the short thesis.

    The alleged revenue includes both UberX and UberBlack. UberX is by Uber's own claim, cheaper than taxis. By definition, then, taxi drivers make more. UberBlack data skews the revenue higher, and UberBlack is NOT competition for taxis, but is for livery.

    "On close reading, however, none of the data provided by the authors of the paper -- Uber Head of Research Jonathan Hall and Princeton economist Alan Krueger, working “under contract” with Uber -- support such claims."

    All other cost issues listed have already been debunked in earlier threads. Repeating them doesn't make them true.
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Gordon, first of all, the paper was a sampling of only 601 drivers. That's a minuscule sample and not scientifically significant. Second, the survey only generated 11% response rate. While we don't know why the rate was so low, it is possible it's because drivers were embarrassed to say how little they made.

    As for the study itself, it has already been challenged and its conclusions dismissed.

    http://huff.to/1zEiFFF

    Furthermore, the study does not address what I have focused on and which you and James repeatedly have failed to address:

    "The problem is that these are all gross pay numbers, but the two sets of drivers pay out costs in different ways. Taxi drivers tend to pay leasing companies to use cabs maintained by medallion companies, and also pay for gas, while Uber drivers are responsible directly for paying and maintaining everything they need to keep their car on the road. Simply comparing the gross pay of each set of drivers doesn’t tell you which set takes home more pay: You also need to know the costs of each set of drivers. And this paper doesn’t address costs at all…"

    Next.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Are you kidding? It's everywhere, including my own article.

    UBER DRIVERS MAKE LESS and Uber tries to hide that fact.

    http://huff.to/1zEiFFF

    And every entry on a search "How much does an uber driver make?"

    http://bit.ly/1zEiGJB

    What you and James refuse to acknowledge is that your ENTIRE THESIS falls apart because rideshare drivers make less and have higher costs. You don't even understand the economics of the sector.
    Jan 23, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can't Go Long Uber By Shorting Medallion Financial [View article]
    From your first article:

    "Near term write-down of ~$0.62/share expected to reflect current market Chicago medallions."

    "near term" = imminent.

    Don't try and walk back your statements. Q4 is a referendum on your thesis.

    Now, shall we talk about the false statement you made?
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can't Go Long Uber By Shorting Medallion Financial [View article]
    James, you've made it very clear that a "$0.62 write down is imminent". It's a nice try to walk back your statement, but Q4 is indeed a referendum on your entire thesis.
    Jan 23, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can't Go Long Uber By Shorting Medallion Financial [View article]
    And when Q4 earnings come out, we will see who is right.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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