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Larry Meyers  

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  • Medallion Financial Corp. Loses Its Largest Institutional Investor [View article]
    Exactly. For all of the hype about how rideshare has exponential growth, there's a question that James curiously hasn't addressed.

    What's taking so long?

    Everyone knows about rideshare. Everyone knows someone who has used it.

    The question is, why aren't these declines already catastrophic? Why instead did the decline abate in the year 2014, when that exponential growth occurred?

    Because Uber can never compete with standing on a street, putting up your hand, and getting into transport in 60 seconds. New Yorkers value their time. They are always in a rush. They don't have time to wait for Uber.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYC Data Proves Taxi Medallion Resilience; Rideshare Effect Negligible [View article]
    You are not my editor. I have multiple projects going on and when I get to it, I get to it.

    Yours are not "calculations". They are numbers slapped against a wall. Get back to me when you've done the real work that you demand that I do.

    I can tell you that even after costs, debt service on a 2.3% annual decline in revenue is hardly going to be a challenge.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corp. Loses Its Largest Institutional Investor [View article]
    Au contraire mon frere, the burden is on you. A 4.1% YOY decline, an aggregate YOY improvement from 6.33% to 2.3%, after a fourfold increase has been in place for some time...why should the trend continue at all? There are those who choose taxis all the time, those who choose Uber all the time, and a percentage who switch based on variables. Those who have chosen one camp have made their stand. That leaves those who switch. Any additional capacity is going to create infighting amongst the Uber drivers as THAT base of revenue gets spread over "unconstrained capacity".

    In the meantime, the taxi hail advantage, which has now been proven resilient, retains people with minimal additional supply.

    And $200K in gross revenue for the avg. medallion owner, which is 10-12x his debt service. No matter how much additional rideshare gets added, it won't be enough to affect debt service.
    Feb 11, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corp. Loses Its Largest Institutional Investor [View article]
    On what basis do you declare the downward 5-month moving average trend will continue? More anonymous sources? A crystal ball?

    Your numbers seem to magically keep increasing. Peak to trough is 7.6%, and 4.1% YOY.

    Again, these declines are already in the face of a fourfold increase in Uber drivers. At this point they are cannibalizing each other, while taxi drivers have 10-12x debt service coverage.
    Feb 11, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corp. Loses Its Largest Institutional Investor [View article]
    No, that's 7.6% peak to trough in a two year period. It's 4.1% YOY using the 5-month average, and 2.3% in the aggregate YOY.

    All this during the year of exponential growth in rideshare, where you claim "every fleet manager" says "15-20% idle shifts" are occurring.

    That level of cash flow decline has no material effect for the average medallion which earns $200,000 per year, which is 10-12x average debt service requirements on a Medallion Financial loan.

    Chicago accounts for 13% and Boston only 4% of Medallion's portfolios. Whatever else may be occurring in those cities, the only thing the company cares about is whether their loans are performing, and there are zero losses thus far.
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Face Obsolescence [View article]
    James, again, you can spin the data any way you see fit. The facts remain the same. UberX drivers increased fourfold to 16,000, to the point where they now outnumber yellow cabs, and yet aggregate revenue was down only 2.3%.

    Even using the 5 month moving average, total revenue is down 7.6% from the peak in spring of 2013 to the end of 2014...the period where rideshare growth showed exponential growth even beyond 4x. If after all that a 7.6% total, and 4.1% YOY, and 2.3% aggregate, is the total impact, your thesis still blows up.

    That kind of decline doesn't impact cash flow in any meaningful way. So what's going to happen next? Another 4x increase to 64K UberX drivers? I think not. At this point, they are cannibalizing each other.

    And all this speaks to the aggregate, not even to the specifics of the company, which underwrites conservatively and has zero losses.

    A medallion owner with $200,000 in gross annual average earnings is going to work that medallion as many hours as he needs to, and has 10-12x gross necessary to meet debt service.

    You want me to go down your list and call? Fine. I will. PM me the numbers and I'll be the first to admit if they confirm it, because that's not even close to the fleets I speak to.
    Feb 10, 2015. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYC Data Proves Taxi Medallion Resilience; Rideshare Effect Negligible [View article]
    I'm just saying I do a lot of analysis on my own and readers should do the same.

    I don't think "Ehow.com" is a terribly good source. It parrots the BLS data which does not include independent contractors, which almost all taxi drivers are.
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Face Obsolescence [View article]
    As expected, your rebuttal fails to address the salient points.

    You spin the data into five month averages, in an attempt to dodge the facts that destroy your thesis.

    Revenue was down 2.3% in 2014 despite "unconstrained new supply", a YOY improvement from the year before.

    You continue to make claims regarding "idle shifts" yet have failed to present a *single quoted source* or *name a single fleet company* that has "15-20% idle shifts and 50% defection to rideshare".

    A 2.3% decline in revenue is hardly evidence of such claims being accurate.

    There is ZERO evidence of rideshare causing any material disruption. You repeatedly quote David Beier, who was running for office and would say anything to get the taxi union endorsement. You repeatedly quote Freidman, who owes back taxes to the city and would cry poor to get out of his pickle.

    These are the best examples of your thesis playing out?

    Your claim of adjusted double-digit declines has nothing behind it. Where are the numbers? The data? The calculations? The sourcing? Shouting something from the rooftops to gin up a crowd isn't proof of much.

    You don't seem to want to understand that no matter how bad business gets, a driver will not walk away. There is no scenario under which negative cash flow exists, except in a short seller's fantasy.

    Again I point to the 2.3% decline despite exponential growth in rideshare.

    You want to talk per medallion basis?

    Signature Bank. Zero losses.
    Medallion Financial. Zero losses.

    7 NYC foreclosures. Prove that these were the result of rideshare.

    If these arguments are truly the best you can offer to support your short thesis, any objective analysis would advise that you are dead wrong.

    I look forward to collecting my dividend from you this week.
    Feb 10, 2015. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYC Data Proves Taxi Medallion Resilience; Rideshare Effect Negligible [View article]
    No, they do not. Where do you get your data?

    A single medallion earns $200,000 per year gross.

    I've done a lot of work on this issue. How about you provide your breakdown of expenses and see if you can ballpark it, and post again?
    Feb 10, 2015. 08:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Face Obsolescence [View article]
    James, you appear to have no comment regarding the TLC's data showing a mere 2.3% decline in average daily farebox for 2014.

    http://exm.nr/1vhGHzL

    This would appear to destroy your thesis that "unconstrained new supply" would destroy the company.

    What is your reaction to this data?

    Also, we've been arguing for some time over just how much cab drivers make in NYC. Now we know that it is almost $200,000, which represents ten times what the average driver's debt service is.

    What is your reaction to this data?
    Feb 10, 2015. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYC Data Proves Taxi Medallion Resilience; Rideshare Effect Negligible [View article]
    I highly recommend you submit a FOIL request yourself to the TLC, who is required to respond in a very reasonable time period, so that you may source the data directly.
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    Readers should be alerted to the fact that data obtained by a FOIL request shows that Hickman's short thesis is wrong. I discuss all the FOIL details here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The major data points are as follows:

    2014 YOY revenue decline on avg. daily farebox is only 2.3%. Moreover, the decline is less than the 6.33% for 2013.

    So despite 2014's exponential rideshare growth, in which NYC UberX drivers increased fourfold, from 4K to 16K, the total revenue impact was.....2.3%

    2.3%.

    A Sandler O'Neill Partners analyst says this will have no impact on driver ability to pay loans. He also stress tests the industry by projecting a maximum of $23 million in losses ACROSS THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY, IF the average LTV was 75% (TAXI's is 50%), and medallion prices fell another 20% (if), and if falling medallion prices triggered defaults (they won't, as owner-drivers will not walk away from their livelihood).

    And the big news: average gross taxi medallion revenue is $200,000 per year. That's 10-12x average debt service cost on Medallion's loans. And considering most medallions are leased by owners for half a day, those lease fees alone cover all debt service.

    The short thesis has collapsed.
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corp. Loses Its Largest Institutional Investor [View article]
    Ain't a scoreboard, Dude. Everything you've written from day one has been totally debunked by the TLC data. Your short thesis is in tatters.

    Let me help by quoting a few facts.

    TLC reports 2014 YOY revenue decline on avg. daily firebox is only 2.3%. Moreover, the decline is less than the 6.33% for 2013.

    So despite your and Uber's claims of 2014's exponential growth, in which NYC UberX drivers increased fourfold, to the point where they outnumber yellow cabs, the total revenue impact was.....2.3%

    2.3%.

    And for all your claims that foreclosures would cause massive write downs, the Sandler analyst did the math and projects $23 million in losses ACROSS THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY if the average LTV was 75% (TAXI's is 50%), and medallion prices fell another 20% (if), and if falling medallion prices triggered defaults (they won't, previously discussed).

    The final nail in the coffin is that average gross taxi medallion revenue is now clear: Almost $200,000 per year. That's 10-12x average debt service cost on Medallion's loans. And considering most medallions are leased by owners for half a day, those lease fees alone cover all debt service.

    Your stool has no more legs. The thesis has officially collapsed. I suggest you cover your short position while you can.
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYC Data Proves Taxi Medallion Resilience; Rideshare Effect Negligible [View article]
    Nope. Fixed rate loans.
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYC Data Proves Taxi Medallion Resilience; Rideshare Effect Negligible [View article]
    Extrapolating the TLC data reveals that the average medallion earned $196,507. This is far in excess of Medallion Financial's average annual interest paid by drivers, which is around $20,000.

    As most drivers lease their medallions for the 12 hours each day they usually are not driving, even if leased at half the market rate of $60, over 365 days, that alone would pay for the interest.
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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