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Larry Meyers

 
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  • Imax Has a Collapse in Its Future [View article]
    You are totally off base. IMAX can never become an industry viewing standard. It's a simple matter of real estate. Walk into your local multiplex that has a true IMAX screen. Note how large it is. You think theatre owners are going to tear down their regular screens to fit in a smaller number of true IMAX screens?
    Jun 9 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imax Has a Collapse in Its Future [View article]
    I think the author of that article has pointed out that IMAX is outrageously overvalued.
    Jun 9 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imax Has a Collapse in Its Future [View article]
    Dave, you are missing a fundamental truth. The number of potential movie screens is finite. The number of potential IMAX screens is even smaller. If you are an exhibitor, you don't just decide one day to make an IMAX screen. You have to make a capital expenditure to retrofit a theatre to maybe make fake IMAX. To actually create a true IMAX theatre, you'd have to make an enormous expenditure to handle the additional real estate to fit the theatre in your existing complex. That means giving up at least one of your screens, maybe more and losing the revenue from those screens. Not going to happen.

    That leaves constructing a true IMAX theatre, which an existing exhibitor can't do, because of the expense and a limitation on the real estate where his theatre is. So the only new true IMAX theatres that can be built are ones in brand new movie complexes. That is only happening internationally, and even then, you're talking one new theatre per complex.

    There is a definitive maximum for number of screens and a fair amount of the revenue for those screens has already been booked as backlog.

    That means IMAX's ongoing revenue will have to come from rev-share. There will always be blockbusters to see in IMAX, but you need a steady stream of IMAX films for a sustainable business. Audiences are already balking at the higher ticket prices for IMAX. Overall movie admission volume is down. This is a gimmick to boost revenue.

    Finally, let me add that it is impossible for any author to have a long or short position in every stock they write about. We are contributors to this stie, not mutual fund managers.
    Jun 9 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imax Has a Collapse in Its Future [View article]
    An excellent point, Ranjit. Free cash flow is ultimately how a company like this needs to be judged. You can have all the screens in the world, but if you aren't generating cash....
    Jun 9 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Citron's Hit Job on World Acceptance Part 3 [View instapost]
    1) "I think the default rate is bogus". This says it all. You don't seem to have heard of Sarbanes-Oxley, that funny little SEC requirement that says you are criminally liable if you misrepresent information in SEC filings.
    2) You're the one making the claim. Look into the 10-K.
    3) You are really showing a lot of ignorance. It's really very simple. Look at the states in which WRLD operates. Go read the state statutes regarding consumer loans. Then you will be educated and learn they are operating within every state statute. Yes, there is the possibility of the CFPB restricting their business in some way, but the Dodd-Frank law specifically prohibits the agency from setting rates. Please educate yourself!
    4) You are wrong. Again. Go read ALL my other pieces. The way it works is that a customer takes out a loan, they pay for a few months, then refinance. Principal is NOT added!!! All that happens is the principal balance they currently have is refinanced over a longer period.
    5) Wrong. Again. Principal is not increased.
    6) Are you kidding? The average loan is increasing because overall volume is increasing, and for larger initial balances.
    7) I am not your accountant. Go read the 10-K's of payday lenders and WRLD and educate yourself.
    8) When you can point to something illegal in the process of drawing down a credit line to repurchase stock, which itself may or may not raise the stock price itself, and then insiders sell out, then report it to the SEC. Not to me.

    You've had your chance, and I'm not impressed. You need to learn a lot more, my friend.
    Feb 26 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Citron's Hit Job on World Acceptance Part 3 [View instapost]
    Joe:
    You are wrong on every count. You do not appear to understand, or have read, the SEC fililngs of WRLD or payday lender.

    1) You note more than 73% of customers refi loans.. why would they do this other than being incapable of paying?

    Who says they are incapable? They MIGHT be. Rather, they merely want to extend the loan. If all were incapable, then the default rate would be higher than 16%,

    2) You say if the customers found terms unattractive they would just move on -- they can't -- they dont have access to credible institutions and are in debt over their heads

    False. This is a standard misunderstanding of the customer. You presume, incorrectly, that they are in debt over their heads. They simply have poor credit.

    3) The New Mexico case and similar ones are material because if a ruling says the rates violate state law, WRLD would potentially be out of yet another state (now only in 11) to do business

    False. The rates do not violate the state rate laws WRLD operates in. If they did, WRLD would not be operating in them.

    4) You claim they dont loan pyramid but it certainly looks that way... they have an ever growing loan book with 3/4 of the customers being the same

    This has been addressed already. Read again.

    5) You say the revenue is real because its cold hard cash that goes into the bank.. not true... customer leaves with some cash and a higher IOU ... WRLD recognized fees in higher IOU as income... they actually dont take in cash, rather give more of it out and grow the loan book

    False again. WRLD recognizes fees as income when they actually receive income. They recognize any kind of IOU as an asset on the balance sheet called a "receivable".

    6) You continually refer to 14-16% default numbers -- those are just the number of loans that have not been flipped... other near delinquent borrowers are rolled into a new bigger debt piece and dont show up in default numbers

    False again. It is the percentage of principal that has been defaulted. Again, if you read the piece and the SEC filings, you'll see that the loans are refinanced with a SMALLER principal than the original loan, not LARGER.

    7) The default rates should be much higher, evidenced by the numbers you provided ... if payday lenders, who have more security and collateral have low 20% default rates, it logically follows that unsecured WRLD loans should have higher default rates, not significantly lower ones

    False again. Payday lenders have defaults as a percentage of principal of about 6%. And payday lenders do not even have collateral. They are unsecured loans.

    8) Doesnt it seem weird to you that the company continues to buy stock, not from free cash flow, but rather by tapping ever increasing revolvers?

    If the return on their investment from the stock buybacks exceeds the rate of interest, then why is that a bad idea? And given the current stock price, they are seeing well in excess of 50% returns on their buybacks.

    You have a lot to learn, my friend. But I'm happy to educate.
    Feb 18 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    Your thoughts are well-received, Where_Art_Thou. Thanks for posting.
    Feb 1 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    Where_Art_Thou: Yes, I am aware of the secular bull arguments, which is why precious metals is part of my diversified portfolio. I reiterate this is purely a technical trade.
    Jan 31 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    Any technical trader knows that attempting to catch the exact top or exact bottom is a fool's game. You wait for confirmation of a top or bottom, then move in for the trade.
    Jan 28 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    To Papil -- your analysis is thoughtful. I have a diversified portfolio which has precious metals exposure as part of a diversified commodity basket. I turbocharge my portfolio with opportunistic trades like this one. This way I do not have to concern myself with macro fundamental issues. The only reason I included fundamental analysis at all was a requirement by SA to do so.
    Jan 26 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    Bluesilver, yes, you are correct. There is no flashing neon sign. Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. The winds are blowing for a correction, and the signs point to a steep one. Hence my article. That's why I have a trailing stop in place.
    Jan 26 10:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    What I've seen thus far from the comments are a lot of insults, but little substantive argumentation. As they say, sticks and stones and all that, but rather than blather on about how smart you are, why not share some insights? That way you can educate other readers on your perspectives and not come off as a troll.

    I reiterate: I see a technical, parabolic top. I've opened a half position with a 7% trailing stop, with plans to double my short if silver breaches the 200 day MA. This is a trade, not a long-term position. It offsets a diversified long position that account for 5.5% of a diversified portfolio.

    You have 3 choices in your reply:
    1) Educate us all with your knowledge of the fundamentals
    2) Agree or disagree with the technical analysis
    3) Be a SeekingAlpha Buffoon by telling us how smart you are while insulting the author.

    Which do you want to choose?
    Jan 26 07:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short Silver? [View article]
    Hey, one man's opinion. I'm going by the technicals. It isn't a long term hold, it's a trade. I see a parabolic top, followed by a correction at a minimum. 7% trailing stop.
    Jan 26 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payday Lenders in Danger from Financial Reform Bill [View article]
    Rhino, payday loan customers ARE banked. You can't get a loan without a bank account.

    Otherwise, I agree 100%.
    May 4 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payday Lenders in Danger from Financial Reform Bill [View article]
    Rhino, there is no such thing as an "ethical" or "unethical" business model. Somewhere along the chain of manufacturing or distribution, some element of every single business could be considered "unethical".

    Furthermore, how can you say that offering credit to someone when nobody else will isn't ethical?
    May 3 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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435 Comments
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