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Larry Meyers

 
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  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    First, thanks for your insightful and intelligent comment.

    So, does the TREND for box office go higher as the number of IMAX screens increase? I'd say it's possible, and maybe even likely, but not guaranteed. Thus, revenue remains unpredictable. How can you put a growth estimate if revenue is unpredictable?

    Your argument about technology making for better action movies is incorrect. A good story, well told, with good characters is what makes a good movie. Technology only serves the story. As a 20 year Hollywood veteran, this has been proven out time and again.

    China will not make expensive blockbuster films. They are too cheap to do so. You assume something which also has not yet come to pass, and probably won't. Your argument is based on a product that does not exist.

    Margins: Here are JV margins from 2013 back to 2007:
    JV margins
    69% 65% 57% 76% 61% -54% 58%

    They're all over the place. And this is during a period of increasing screens.

    It's entirely possible that the performance of the short (or long) position will be entirely disconnected from whatever actually happens to the business. As we've seen with stocks like Netflix, the market can be totally irrational. I always set stops with shorts, so we'll have to wait and see.
    Oct 21 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    Global box office: $248 million
    IMAX box office: $58 million, according to you. Okay, I'll take that number.

    IMAX revenue from box office = 20% of $58MM = $11.6 million

    Hardly what I call a game-changer.
    Oct 21 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    What in my comment makes me a nasty person? Because you called the article "silly", and I referred to your reply as the same? Or because I provided factual and reasoned rebuttal to your weak argument?
    Oct 21 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    You are the one who has yet to respond to a single point from the article written.

    Because you can't.
    Oct 21 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    And if you really want to play this silly game, let's.

    10/6/11: "I would short above $20 if it gets back above there"
    10/28: $20.36.
    11/23: $17.61
    So if you shorted, you would have made money. And it went over $20 again, and again fell back to mid-17's. So you had a second chance.

    I never said, "Short and hold forever". Every investor knows that once you initiate a trade, you exit the trade when you feel it's right to do so.

    This is the kind of foolishness that distracts from the issue.

    Namely, still waiting for you to actually rebut the points in the thesis.

    Which you can't.
    Oct 21 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    Hey, don't get me wrong. I love watching films in IMAX. I just don't think the company has any real growth prospects to drive earnings.
    Oct 21 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    Your numbers are dead wrong regarding Gravity. You are taking 20% of TOTAL box office. IMAX gets 20% of revenues from box office of films ONLY SHOWN IN ITS THEATRES. Thus, the company's take is much smaller -- namely, 20% of the amount you claim, and actually even less.

    If the "allure of 3D" is so great, tell me, why is 3D film viewership in the 12-25 range down 20% YOY, down 8% in 24-39?
    Oct 21 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    Actually, your reply is silly, because none of your statements address the arguments.

    With regards to installs, my point is there is LITTLE TO NO GROWTH IN REVENUE, and therefore will not drive growth. Investors pay for growth, not stagnation.

    Whether or not Wanda is happy with IMAX now is irrelevant. The question is whether they will be when leases renew.

    Yes, any growing company will mature. But my point is that between now and maturation, there is little to no growth in install revenue.

    Your point about GRAVITY plays right into the points I made -- that IMAX only takes 20% of the revenue from IMAX theatres. Gravity's total cume is $284MM global. The US has 15,000 Digital 3D screens, of which IMAX owns 270 of them, or less than 2%. Asia Pacific also has 15,000 of which IMAX has 4%. But let's be generous and give IMAX 10% of total global box office. 10% of $284MM is $28.4 million. IMAX gets 20% of that = $5.68 million in total revenue.

    Wow. That's amazing. Boy, you can expect the stock to go to $70 on that. So, thanks for proving my point, that it would take a lot more than GRAVITY to make any meaningful difference in the top or bottom line.

    IMAX may get to choose which movies is wishes to show but DOES NOT have any control over the movies themselves. Choosing a bad peach from among 35 bad peaches is not an advantage.

    You could go on and on. Please do. Nothing you've written is actually a viable argument.
    Oct 21 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    If you believe in the company you are running, you hold your shares. Why would he sell so much in 2009 -- years before he'd even considered leaving?
    Oct 21 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    You will also please note, contrikaos, that my articles supported the short case but specifically suggested NOT to short until certain criteria were reached.

    Funny how you spend a lot of time yammering rather than address the specific points of my article.

    I don't need to make you look foolish. You do it all by yourself by not arguing the thesis.
    Oct 21 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    Actually, I wrote my articles two years ago.

    And since that time, IMAX stock has never revisited the price it was before my first bearish article.

    So, in point of fact, had they shorted IMAX two years ago, they would have made money.

    Your apology is pending, I presume?
    Oct 21 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    IMAX has said absolutely nothing regarding Africa. Furthermore, you ignore my thesis -- that no matter how many screen IMAX has, revenue will always been unreliable and unpredictable.
    Oct 21 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EZCorp: 27% Trading Upside, 100% Long-Term Upside [View article]
    I disagree. The gold model is now gone. Revenue and earnings were substantially influenced by gold at the time, but the core consumer lending business was always there. It's now being expanded into several new arenas, noted in the article.
    Oct 15 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Gravity Caught Up To Imax Corporation? [View article]
    And just how much revenue will GRAVITY add to IMAX revenue?
    Oct 10 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EZCorp: 27% Trading Upside, 100% Long-Term Upside [View article]
    That's because Cohen delivers value to the company. It's the price of owning the stock.
    Oct 8 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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