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Laura Starks

 
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  • Trinity Industries: Still Room To Grow For Cyclical Investors [View article]
    I don't know without research. Sounds like a good topic for another SA article, though perhaps other commenters reading have some insight.
    Jan 21 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still Room To Grow For Cyclical Investors [View article]
    Yeah! Good q. Maybe the steelmakers who are currently getting the benefit of low natural gas prices...
    Jan 20 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still Room To Grow For Cyclical Investors [View article]
    Rail is available now and allows flexible dispatch to a range of markets, a great advantage given the sudden growth of US oil production. However, pipeline transport is many times safer per barrel of oil transported and costs a half to a third as much. Both factors are compelling IF the capacity is available AND in the direction it's needed. That's why pipelines replaced so much original rail transport of oil decades ago.
    Jan 19 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still Room To Grow For Cyclical Investors [View article]
    TRN interests me from an energy perspective because the change has been so extraordinary. I didn't research additional freight car demand for this piece; it sounds like gravy.
    Jan 19 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still Room To Grow For Cyclical Investors [View article]
    Those Midwestern refiners. They're sitting pretty.
    Jan 18 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still Room To Grow For Cyclical Investors [View article]
    I think Canadian producers have been taking hits already; maybe rail will be an option for them. The possibility of export through Valdez intrigues me, and initial discussions with critical stakeholders--First Nations and Alaska tribes--have taken place.
    Jan 18 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    dgrant589 and g8trgr8t,
    Yes, the IEA projection of the US as the #1 producer by 2020 is all over the news, including the WSJ. I think the shale boom is tremendous, but I think the IEA is making the same mistake a lot of people and organizations do, which is to include fuel ethanol and natural gas liquids (both reported as part of "liquids") in the comparison to crude, or black oil. SA & Russia are not including these volumes. US NGLS are 2.3 MMBPD; US fuel ethanol is 860,000 BPD, so the "real" US baseline crude oil is 6.33 MMBPD. Roughly double it in 7 years? I don't see us surpassing Saudi Arabia with its so-much-cheaper-to-pro... oil. As to Russia--just a pure hypothetical--what if all its chilly northern land was as oil-rich as North Dakota?
    BTW, this is taking nothing away from the tremendous work being done by oil and gas producers in the Bakken, the Marcellus, the Eagle Ford, the Niobrara, the Permian, the Mississippi Lime, the Haynesville etc. The oil, gas, and NGL production increases are game-changers for US energy, consumers, the economy, and our international security/global political position.
    Nov 13 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    blueice,
    I think it depends on the time period one is looking at, because Mexico and Saudi Arabia are quite close as US import sources. What I have is that for the full-year 2011 average the US imported 1,186,000 barrels per day (BPD) from Saudi Arabia and 1,100,000 BPD from Mexico. It could have changed recently or over a different time period.
    Nov 12 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    gators, thx for the compliment. I, too, would have thought the lack of pipelines would be an impediment to Bakken production, but the railroads know their markets and have jumped right in. (BNSF-Buffett, hmm.) Interestingly, in the late 1800s and early 1900s, before there were pipelines, railroads carried the oil, so they have always been an alternative, albeit a more expensive one. Indeed, pipelines were built to carry oil to compete with railroads. And you can't beat a pipeline for transporting natural gas.
    Yes, I agree, and the article says so up front, that KOG is a bet on Bakken oil prices and the company's ability to continue to lower costs, so any potential KOG investor would need to be comfortable with his/her assumptions about those factors.
    Overall, more oil production will lower the price of oil, no matter where it comes from, whether Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Permian, Iraq, Russia, or Saudi Arabia. So the question is how those levers are pushed, and then especially the other side of the equation; what's happening to oil demand. I don't do oil price projections--invariably I'm wrong--but I would refer you to the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook and its other publications, and to the futures prices of crude on the NYMEX for thoughts on future oil prices.

    Circling back to your question of pipelines vs. railroads, the location of the Bakken, (like the Marcellus in Pennsylvania for natural gas), creates some interesting options for marketing. So does the fact that the railroad lines are already built. (bird in the hand). The big kahuna for refining is always the US Gulf Coast, but I am all for the option of backing out PADD I (East Coast) high-cost imported crude by supplying those refineries with North Dakota crude. West Coast markets would be interesting--probably more of an environmental tangle to ship crude overland there no matter what form of oil transport--but feedstock Alaskan oil production is declining. Not that it's a given that it will ultimately be profitable for USWC refineries to continue to operate; it's a high-cost environment.
    Nov 12 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    Technically it's not the same type of crude, but more generally, all new US production helps reduce imports since oil supply/use is a global "pool." Our leading import supplier is Canada. SA is second. More US production is beneficial to balance of trade and to security.
    Nov 12 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    p_salerno1,
    I hear your concerns. KOG is definitely a play on the oil price and unconventional oil production requiring lots of capital. You'll note I condition my article on an investor's belief about a) the oil price trajectory and b) whether KOG can continue to reduce its costs. They have done so, and seem to have plans in place to continue reducing costs.
    One observation I find fascinating is that the Bakken oil price is closer to WTI ($0-$10/bbl) than one would expect given the takeaway cost. But, North Dakota provides growing production and large volumes, and in the long run, access to multiple markets. Then it depends on your relative view of KOG in the universe of Bakken companies.
    Nov 10 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    dgrant589,
    That oil goes to US refineries making US gasoline that gets largely sold in the US--to your gas tank. We export very little, if any oil. The Prudhoe Bay oil, which is now less in volume than the North Dakota oil due to lack of Alaska drilling, goes to refineries in the state of Washington and California. It isn't exported.
    Nov 10 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    Blueice beat me to it. Think of the hockey stick blade on the ground, with the shaft pointing up and to the right. The angle is a steep one--big "rise over run."
    Nov 9 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    As the Range Resources CEO said a few years ago, water handling--especially disposal/recycle--is important for the industry. I think the trend will be towards more recycling/reuse.
    Nov 9 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak: A Solid Bakken-Focused Oil Company [View article]
    Good thought. Takeaway capacity remains key.
    Nov 9 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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