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Laurence Lavelle

 
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  • AFC Travel Report: Mongolia [View instapost]
    Well stated! :-)
    Aug 16 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Agreed.
    Aug 15 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Vectors Vietnam - An Attractive ETF With Significant Potential Upside [View article]
    Agreed on the Vietnam thesis but better value and lower long term volatility to be had with Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (OTCPK:VCVOF).

    This is a long term buy and hold as it is illiquid and currently trades below NAV.
    NAV is $3.40 and it trades @$2.59

    For fund details see: http://bit.ly/Tjoq5m
    Aug 15 02:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    SA replies not working right.
    My 1st reply was to RbarPNW.
    2nd reply was to MSE.Investor.
    3rd one to Asia Frontier Capital.
    Aug 14 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    SA "Reply" not linking to correct post.

    This response was to RbarPNW.
    Aug 14 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Which company?

    Hopefully new MSE CEO makes these events few and far between with more timely paperwork done :-)

    As far as I know there is a rule in place starting with 2013 dividends that they must be paid by end of following year.

    RMC, HRM, ADL all paid on time.
    APU, BNG, TTL, BDS, GOV, MMX, TCK, SUL, ULN still need to pay their dividends.
    Aug 14 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Agreed. And I would add that any delays in dividend payouts apply to both local and foreign investors.
    Aug 14 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Local stock markets are a hedge for local inflation. Inflation runs high in most emerging and frontier markets. Small to large from Mongolia to South Africa and India.

    On the other hand official rates of inflation are unrealistically low and flat out false in several Western economies, e.g., USA.

    The biggest long term risk I see are the low yields in the 10yr Gov. bonds in Japan (0.5%), Germany (1.0%), USA (2.4%) and corporate junk bonds.

    I always want to know currency and inflation adjusted market performance as it is a better representation of real growth.

    When it comes to MSE dividends everyone gets the same payout date when it occurs on time or delayed.

    My experience at BDS in service, trading, execution, dividends, etc., has been excellent and very fair (when I've known that I'm trading against a local client).
    Aug 14 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    BD Securities, known as BDS, is doing its much awaited equity offering. While the BDS offering is seeing strong demand, which I hear is already over 70% subscribed before their road show has started, what I want to comment on is their 105 page prospectus.

    For anyone wanting an overview of the Mongolian economy it is excellent. Nearly all prospectus are dull whereas this 105 page thesis with clear graphs, plots, etc., is full of data not found elsewhere. Pages 1-38 cover BDS from % investor by nationality to MSE trading data. It is page 39 onwards that is a must read for those interested in Mongolia.

    There is no online link as the prospectus cannot be made public. However email Dagii (dagiijanchiv@bdsec.mn), mention my article and recommended reading, and he'll likely email you a personal copy.
    Aug 13 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Latest excellent read from Nick Cousyn now online, "MSE Stealth Bull Market Intact and Accelerating"

    http://bit.ly/1uNbHZ7

    "The MSE Top 20 is a market cap weighted index, with State controlled companies comprising 18.2% of the total market cap. In an effort to
    give investors a better sense of how well privately controlled local shares have performed, we aggregated a list of the MSE’s 20 largest companies excluding SOE’s. For the purposes of this note, we will refer to the MSE’s 20 largest privately controlled companies as the BDS Top 20. The constituents of the BDS Top 20 have collectively increased in value nearly 800% since 2010 ..."

    "... the 20 largest private companies experienced their own bear market
    in March 2011, declining ~22%, but went on to register new highs only 6 months hence and have since gone on to appreciate ~260%."

    This another very clear and informative 8 page research note from Nick.

    My comments are:
    MSE stocks give excellent dividends which none of the price performance plots and numbers include.

    One example is TTL. For 7 months of 2013 the large cap and fairly liquid TTL traded below 4000 MNT and with its 2013 dividend of 766 MNT gives a yield above 19%.

    Would have been informative to know total of all dividends 2010-2013 for the BDS Top 20.

    None of the returns or plots are US dollar and inflation adjusted which unlike the dividends would detract from the outstanding performance of the BDS Top 20.

    Aug 13 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    RbarPNW, Below are two samples within the last 24hrs.

    "During the visit, the President Ts.Elbegdorj and the Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held official talks, concurring with a necessity to focus the bilateral economic cooperation on not only the markets of the two countries, but also the markets of the neighbour countries and regional nations in conjunction with reaching a principal agreement to establish the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)."

    "His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, currently on a visit to Mongolia, paid a visit to Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj at the Presidential Palace in the capital Ulan Bator."

    But the bottom line is exports and FDI need to increase for MNT to strengthen.
    Aug 8 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Agreed. But would add that MNT looks to weaken further before improving. A negative for those already invested in Mongolia but a positive for those converting USD, EUR, etc., to MNT.

    SNG project with China is making very fast progress which is the complete opposite of OT 2nd phase.

    There appear to be multiple positive catalysts on the 2014 horizon. Expect LSE/MSE news, Emir of Kuwait just visited UB, Putin to visit early September, etc.

    Japan is also active in Mongolia on several recent fronts and is in desperate need to reduce its energy costs with long term contracts.

    'Bad news' resulting in negative trade balance is well known and showing up in weak FDI and MNT.

    Based on multiple data points I'd expect mining licenses resolved 1st then OT 2nd phase, both in 2014.

    OT production and sales doing well which will help trade balance. Commodities have been in a weak cycle, especially coal which is Mongolia's biggest export. When these turn I'd expect so will MNT.
    Aug 8 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Mongolia Growth Group June 2014 Monthly Letter

    http://bit.ly/V1VClN

    Highlights:

    "In June 2014, MGG’s core commercial property portfolio* experienced a same-store rental increase of 32.3% relative to June 2013 on properties owned 12 months or longer, as measured in local currency (Mongolian Togrog). Total billed revenue for June 2014 was 242.2 million Mongolian Togrog, as compared to 214.8 million Mongolian Togrog in June of 2013 or a 12.7% increase.** The occupancy rate for the core portfolio in June of 2014 was 94.7% including an occupancy rate of 94.0% for core retail properties and an occupancy rate of 95.2% for core office properties."

    "-During 2013, we began renovations on one of our store-fronts with a view to modernize it and increase its size, to increase future earnings potential. We have completed all work on that property and in June leased it to a well-respected tenant at market rates.
    -We renewed a lease on Peace Avenue for the highest retail rent per meter (Mongolian Togrog terms) in the history of our company.
    -The medical tenant mentioned in the press release on July 3rd, has now fully moved into the newly renovated facility and begun paying rent at market rates, leading to zero vacancy in the newly renovated facility."

    "In keeping with our precedent from prior major renovations, we have created a video to document the progress of our renovation of the medical facility mentioned above. You can watch it at the following link http://bit.ly/V1VBOx "
    Aug 7 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    Good earnings from HBOil.

    "HBOil JSC, (MSE:HBO) announced first half 2014 revenues of 242M MNT which were 210% higher than full year 2013, or 410% higher on an annualized basis. HBO’s first half profits were 221M MNT, vs. a loss of 93M MNT in full year 2013. First half profits of 221M MNT represent a 540% increase in profits vs. full year 2012, or 1080% on an annualized basis. Bloomberg highlighted HBO as the best performing A-Board stock, increasing 76% YTD."
    Aug 7 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets, With A Focus On Mongolia [View article]
    China's president Xi Jinping’s official visit to Mongolia is August 18th.

    Russia's president Vladimir Putin's official visit to Mongolia is August 21st.

    Japan should use their many Yen to build SNG plant in Mongolia and lock in favorable supply prices for decades.

    http://bit.ly/1lsF4Kk
    July 22, 2014

    "The official visit of the President of Mongolia begun yesterday in Tokyo when the President landed in the country of sunrise with large number of private and state owned enterprise representatives including directors of Erdenes MGL, Erdenes TT and Erdenes OT.

    He addressed the Japanese government and businesses inviting them to Mongolia and to confirm that country is open for business for Japanese. Also, the President emphasized that Japan always helped Mongolia in critical times in history, in this regard, he thanked the People of Japan. He openly confirmed that Mongolian government will support Japan’s participation in Tavan Tolgoi coking coal mine project.

    Mongolia, solely dependent on export of raw materials plans to build refineries, power plants, windfarms and smelters that would create added value goods. For that, it needs advanced technologies that Japan could help invest and assist.

    Mongolia will sign a Economic Cooperation Agreement with Japan during this visit, and the signing parties are the President of Mongolia and the Prime Minister of Japan.

    Mr. President also stated that PRC’s President Xi Jinping’s official visit is August, 18th and President of Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will visit the country 3 days after on 21st."
    Jul 22 09:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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