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Lawrence Williams  

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  • Has Gold Mine Cost Cutting Gone As Far As It Can Go? [View article]
    On AISC I used these figures because they do give some kind of direct comparisons, but free cash flow might be a better measure but this isn't consistent in the way it is reported, if at all. Some of the major miners also show an All in Costs (as opposed to AISC) figure which is more rigorous and suggests the real cost of producing gold is $100 or so higher than the AISC figure which puts perhaps 50% or more of the gold mining sector in negative territory at the current gold price. When I was editor of mineweb.com a few years back we called consistently for mining companies to use a free cash flow figure in their reporting taking all capital expenditures into account as well as all the other costs involved in operating a modern day gold mining company, and the big gold miners were then adamantly against this (except Gold Fields which did indeed report something of this nature) - One of the majors even withdrew its advertising from the site as a result of our campaign. However most have since now come round to at least reporting overall costs more accurately, and perhaps more consistently, than they used to which is an improvement on the old patterns and gives us a better idea of where costs are actually heading.
    May 20, 2015. 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Gold Mine Cost Cutting Gone As Far As It Can Go? [View article]
    James, Newmont guidance for 2015 IS higher than the Q1 2015 figure which is what was stated in the article. AISC guidance for the year is $960–$1,020 per ounce. In 1Q15, AISC was $849 per ounce. It has been successful in cutting its AISC over the past two years but what the article was trying to point out is that looking ahead the company is anticipating that the low levels of Q1 AISC are unlikely to be achievable going forwards.
    May 19, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1,000 Tons, 1,200 Tons Or 1,750 Tons?: How High Are China's Real Gold Imports? [View article]
    exk: It is difficult to adjust silver production rate as there are very few primary silver mines. Most is produced as a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper and gold and is thus largely dependent on the state of the markets for these.
    It would indeed be good for the market if control can be wrested from the bullion banks and the other short sellers and a fair market can be developed just based on supply and demand for physical metal.
    Nov 24, 2013. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Long Game: How Big Are China's Real Gold Reserves? [View article]
    The position noted by The Recusant above very much reflects my own view on the likely Chinese way forward. The country has already signaled something of a break from the dollar and this is just an extension of this, ideally China would like to reach a stage where its manufacturing output is mostly consumed internally as its urbanization program extends and its middle class grows wealthier, much like the growth of the USA in the last two centuries. Then exports become less and less significant - although will remain important. But like Japan in the past the reputation for shoddy goods is already diminishing rapidly and the country will be able to export based on quality rather than primarily on price.
    Nov 24, 2013. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 1,000 Tons, 1,200 Tons Or 1,750 Tons?: How High Are China's Real Gold Imports? [View article]
    Some interesting comments - thanks. etk's comments certainly lend support to the suggested import data expounded in the article. 6151621: One hesitates to come up with any actionable ideas as, to my mind, the gold price pattern totally defies logic given the huge flows to the East. I know this is usually put down to everyone's favorite bete noir, JP Morgan, et al driving prices down through enormous paper sales and if this is indeed the case one just doesn't know when it will stop. Sooner or later there will be a very sharp turnaround in the gold price, but when is anyone's guess (although perhaps JP Morgan knows and they aren't telling!)
    Nov 22, 2013. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Long Game: How Big Are China's Real Gold Reserves? [View article]
    haiguike: I actually agree with you in principle - China is unlikely to want to destabilize the dollar while it holds enormous amounts of dollar related paper in its reserves - but things change in politics and if things turn really sour between China and the U.S. at some time in the future - as they may, for example if China decides to try to re-annex Taiwan by force - it could have an economic weapon it could use. I don't necessarily think it likely, but is not outside the bounds of possibility.
    Nov 16, 2013. 05:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Long Game: How Big Are China's Real Gold Reserves? [View article]
    exk: I personally think your criticism of the WGC is unjustified. The WGC, or rather GFMS which does its statistical work - deals in actual data available, not in surmise which a commentator can do. There is no simple way of assessing actual intake and GFMS does the best job it can given the published data..
    Nov 16, 2013. 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Side Of Goldman Sachs Is Right About Gold? [View article]
    I drew much the same conclusion re. the Indian and Chinese data in a recent article on Mineweb.com so I do concur with the views expressed on Asian demand and its effective cornering of global gold output. However what the article doesn't seem to cover is the timing of the GS purchases in Q2. Followers of the market will recall Currie told investors to sell gold short in April and two days later gold prices dropped like a stone (around $150). Coincidence? Maybe. But if GS then decided to buy its GLD holding after the drop it will have done very nicely thank you in the subsequent recovery - but then more algorithmic sales kept the gold price yoyoing - It looks like someone, or a group of financiers with big pockets, is playing the market to line their pockets - so could it be that both sides of Goldman are right?
    Oct 20, 2013. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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