Leif Peterson

Time for Dollar Bears to Go Long Commodity Currencies

what happens when the dollar bubble bursts? Where do you want to be?

Gold ETFs: What Went Wrong With Conventional Wisdom?

It's the gold carry trade, which keeps the price of gold down.

Here, multiple tonnes of gold are loaned daily by central banks which artificially show up as supply via bullion banks via the London bullion market -- while on the same day other central banks have paperwork showing that they own the gold that's listed for sale (simultaneously). This is not transparent - and IMF is supposed to be going public the end of the year. Getting this trickery out in the public is part of the $2000/oz that goldbugs are hedging on.

All Eyes on the U.S. Dollar

There is an incredible amount of growing yet unobserved unemployment. The huge losses in equity over the last month has resulted in multi-billion dollar losses in portfolios of many institutions with deep pockets, especially endowments, or gifts. Given this, many have already lost their jobs but don't know it -- jobs tied to existing projects that will come to an end. Without new project starts, the extra staff won't be needed when their projects come to an end. The lack of new projects translates to little employment growth. Little or no growth is *the* problem.

With slowing growth (of employment and revenue-->dividend yield), I wouldn't get too exited about the dollar or the markets right now. You'll need to stay in T-bills for quite while until this is over.