Leif Peterson

All Eyes on the U.S. Dollar

There is an incredible amount of growing yet unobserved unemployment. The huge losses in equity over the last month has resulted in multi-billion dollar losses in portfolios of many institutions with deep pockets, especially endowments, or gifts. Given this, many have already lost their jobs but don't know it -- jobs tied to existing projects that will come to an end. Without new project starts, the extra staff won't be needed when their projects come to an end. The lack of new projects translates to little employment growth. Little or no growth is *the* problem.

With slowing growth (of employment and revenue-->dividend yield), I wouldn't get too exited about the dollar or the markets right now. You'll need to stay in T-bills for quite while until this is over.