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Leigh Drogen  

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  • It's The Euro, Stupid [View article]
    I would agree with that statement. In a vacuum I don't believe the Greek fiscal situation is a threat to Apple per se, but nothing operates in a vacuum and a Greek default will play havoc with markets around the world. Will it effect Apple fundamentally, I'm not so certain, when that data shows itself I'll believe it. But will it effect how the market treats Apple as a stock, you bet it will, which is why the odds right now are not in the favor of owning even the best companies.
    Sep 17, 2011. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Euro, Stupid [View article]
    I see it more as having a dogmatic view, not preparation for all difference scenarios. It's very difficult for people to change their economic beliefs, it's better to just have none when it comes to informing your trading decisions.
    Sep 17, 2011. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Euro, Stupid [View article]
    There's some truth in that, and a whole lot of wrong. Not many investment managers can consistently produce alpha with an absolute return strategy. Electronic jockey I think is just false.

    In regards to what this is all about, well, I'd rather make money than be right about some economic theory ;)
    Sep 17, 2011. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Euro, Stupid [View article]
    While you are correct that I have not spent the amount of time necessary in China to understand the infrastructure aspect as well as I should, I do have family members, friends, and other contacts who have. As a trader who takes a pragmatic view on things, I have no reason to be a headline junkie, it doesn't produce alpha. The point I make is not necessarily about how much is being built, it is about what is being built. Primarily, the Chinese are copying a 1970's disaster of a mistake from western urban planning which was the "tower in the park" setup, as well as relying on motor vehicle transportation instead of light rail. They are building the wrong infrastructure, instead of building sustainable mixed use communities tied together by public transportation.

    This isn't just about Ordos, this is about the majority of lower Tier 1 and most Tier 2 cities.
    Sep 17, 2011. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Euro, Stupid [View article]
    Economics is mostly mental masturbation. Ask a trader to explain something and you will get a much better answer 99% of the time, largely because it's our job to make decisions, not pontificate about ridiculous crap.

    Glad you found it informative.
    Sep 14, 2011. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Euro, Stupid [View article]
    As I have said in the past many times, it's not a matter of the fact that China is getting ahead of the curve on building what their society will need in terms of infrastructure over the next 30 years. The problem is what they are building and where they are building it. Ghosts cities of towers in the park in the desert.
    Sep 14, 2011. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    Exactly the wrong view.
    Aug 13, 2011. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    Miners are a serial disappointment, they are good for trades but not for playing the trend in the price of gold.
    Aug 13, 2011. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    I agree, but markets don't always work the way you think they should, supply and demand are weird things, it's a market of often irrational people.
    Aug 13, 2011. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    ummmmm, no, please find me the link, I haven't been anything but bullish on gold since August 2009.
    Aug 11, 2011. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    Agree, but that's what scares me, when everyone "has to own" an asset, it usually doesn't end well.
    Aug 11, 2011. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    Again, yes all the fundamentals line up, I don't think you're gonna find a person on earth right now who thinks it doesn't make sense to be long gold, "how could in not go up in this environment". That's scary to me, that's what takes place in bubbles.
    Aug 11, 2011. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Feeling That the Gold Run May Be Nearing an End [View article]
    I don't write the titles, SA rewrites them when they take the feed from my blog and leighdrogen.com.
    Aug 11, 2011. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon, Facebook and the Mispricing of Disruption Risk [View article]
    Yes agree.
    Aug 8, 2011. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon, Facebook and the Mispricing of Disruption Risk [View article]
    Trade the market you have, not the one you want. You can try to be right, or you can make money, you often can't have both.
    Aug 8, 2011. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
196 Comments
116 Likes