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Leo Kolivakis  

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  • Big Short II: Can Canada's Largest Banks Absorb Increasing Defaults From A Real Estate Crash? [View article]
    @TimmiesRegular: They're cheaper for a reason, dead money at best, or worse still, more pain ahead. IMHO, Canada's crisis is really just beginning.
    Feb 24, 2015. 04:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Short II: Can Canada's Largest Banks Absorb Increasing Defaults From A Real Estate Crash? [View article]
    UGH! Typo...

    You're on the right track Nigel. In December, 2013, I wrote a comment on why it's time to short Canada:

    http://bit.ly/1FRkaCE

    A lot of people were mocking me but my call on the loonie made a lot of money. Back then I didn't recommend shorting Canadian banks because real estate was holding on, but with the plunge in oil and weakening real estate, I think the time has come to do the unthinkable, short Canadian banks.

    In any case, I recommend people stay out of Canadian equities over the next two years and invest solely in the United States and selectively in Europe. Canada is cooked, stick a fork in her!
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • And The Oscar Goes To? [View article]
    Yes, it was on my discussion here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I completely agree with your assessment but the problem is that the way austerity was implemented was bungled up. There were no jobs lost in the Greek public sector, none, zero, zilch!

    Now, given this situation and deflation in Europe, explain to me how more austerity will bolster confidence? It won't. Greece needs to reform but Germans need to take the lead and stimulate growth in the periphery countries. Problem is they don't have the appetite for this, especially not now that they're staring at a recession.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • And The Oscar Goes To? [View article]
    @joliebig: Read my comment carefully, austerity in Greece has disproportionately hurt the private sector. More broadly, however, austerity is a failed policy especially when the eurozone is experiencing debt deflation. The Germans can think otherwise but their policy is failing and their economy will suffer the repercussions too. It's already happening.

    Having said this, I agree with you, years of public debt profligacy have gotten Greece in this mess which is why I find it ludicrous listening to Syriza's leaders claiming they will roll back austerity measures. The ultimate austerity will come if they renege on their debts and go back to the drachma. Then you will see real pain in Greece, which is why Varoufakis blinked first.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Funds' Activity In Q4 2014 [View article]
    @Bubba: There is a lot to absorb but you can lpeek into the portfolios of top funds and see what they bought and sold in Q4. Keep in mind the data is lagged and they often do the opposite of what they claim, which is why I never follow them blindly. Also, some funds have a better track record than others picking stocks and some managers have higher conviction than others and don't churn their portfolio.

    Read the passage: This brings me to a very important point. Your head can explode trying to track the moves of all these hedge fund gurus. David Benoit of the Wall Street Journal reports, The Hedge Funds Whose Stock Picks Are Actually Worth Following.

    Cheers,

    Leo
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Funds' Activity In Q4 2014 [View article]
    I would love to approach Vanguard, Barclay's, S&P or others with a great idea on a real GURU ETF!!
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Time For Games In Europe? [View article]
    @brianklu: The melt up in stocks is already occurring but some sectors will outperform while others will lag. Go to my blog and read my outlook 2015.
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Cusp Of Raising Rates? [View article]
    @user9946931: Very well said:

    "The risks are asymetric - deflation or re-recession are of greater harm than a period of inflation. this should be viewed in those terms. Not the standard inflation crowd crowing for higher rates. Gagging is also a reflux."

    Thanks for sharing.
    Feb 8, 2015. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Cusp Of Raising Rates? [View article]
    @Ken: The truth is January figures might be revised down to reflect steep job losses in the energy sector, which is why economists typically look at 3-month averages to gauge the trend. We shall see if strong employment gains will continue as the U.S. dollar rallies and global weakness becomes more entrenched. Lots of nasty surprises might lurk ahead...
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Chance To Dump Twitter [View article]
    Last chance to cover your shorts on Twitter! You should have tracked what top funds like JAT Capital were doing in Q4:

    http://bit.ly/1D5RYJE

    There will be profit taking but Twitter is headed higher. It's a great company which is mostly about content, not vanity like Facebook. Top funds bought the dip hard and are making off like bandits today.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Exposes The Global Economy's Achilles Heel [View article]
    Chris,

    The problem in Greece isn't the enormous debt, it's serviceable with some adjustments, and austerity has been a dismal failure in Greece and elsewhere mostly because of the asinine way it was implemented. Also, the ECB's move was more of a message to Germany than Greece. I think all of you need to read my latest comment to fully understand what is going on right now:

    http://bit.ly/1D55220

    Best regards,

    Leo Kolivakis

    Publisher of Pension Pulse blog.
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Germany Push Greece Over The Edge? [View article]
    No Viper, it means nothing in Greek culture.
    Feb 5, 2015. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unraveling A Greek Drama [View article]
    Mohamed, I'd love to get your thoughts on whether Germany will push Greece over the edge:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks for sharing your insights.
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Germany Push Greece Over The Edge? [View article]
    @mickey99: I stand corrected, thank you for enlightening me on irrationality in game theory. I completed an MA in Econ at McGill back in '98 but focused a lot more on macroeconomics, less on micro and game theory.
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Germany Push Greece Over The Edge? [View article]
    @Peter Stevens: "This is a bad tactic by the Greeks, and won't be successful absent complete capitulation in Euroland."

    Agreed but austerity is not working either so Greece is dead set to "blow it all up" if it has to because staying in the eurozone and losing another 25% GDP over the next five years is simply not an option. In my opinion, both Syriza and German leaders are displaying some arrogance and playing a very dangerous game. Plenty of blame to go around here.
    Feb 5, 2015. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
89 Comments
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