Leonard the Monkey

Four Oil Giants to Keep an Eye on - Barron's

XOM is at least 20% overvalued and trades at a significant premium to it's peers.

That is taking into consideration their top notch balance sheet.

Estimates are for a 40% decrease in earnings this year to 5.51

Given a 10 pe and $6 in cash = $61

They will also have billions in write downs on projects such as the oil sands, the Chavez seizure and other investments in projects that are no longer feasible.

The Short Case for JPMorgan

The loss numbers you give are good conservative estimates. One thing you may want to consider as JPM has been pushed back down to almost it's lows is that the govt. already gave them 25 billion and with TARP 2 coming immediately they will most likely get another 25 billion which they will have for as much time as they need before they pay it back.

This should give them enough time to ride out the storm and eat up other banks businesses along the way as JPM will be considered the strongest bank in the country.

Also by far most of the mortgage losses still stem from CA and FL and the worst area's there have begun stabilizing.

Disclosure: I did short JPM at $35 but I am now long.

Friday's Jobs Report: Monkey Numbers

Hi John,

I wish the real view showcased all of these things. It bothers me that most people don't see or understand these other labor reports that are not widely disseminated.

Not that I'm all about spreading doom and gloom and all that, just want to really understand the situation as best possible.

Leonard

Short Treasuries? Never A Better Time

To dtv999 - yea I don't like investments that are "obvious" because they make so much sense either.

I prefer investing in only things that make no sense what so ever or are much more "ifffy"

Freddie/Fannie Plans In Motion; Why Are They Being Underplayed?

These two are still widely held by non-lottery player's and the government isn't going to come in buying up the common at a premium. They are simply going to shore up confidence until things get better leaving the true owners of the company with a future.

Since when did everyone stop believing in US Socialism?

Spoken by a lotto ticket holder.

What's So Special About RadioShack? - Barron's

RSH is one of my favorite retail shorts here with a stop just above 20 it's an easy trade setup.

I have no complaints about my local RSH's but I don't see how they can fend off the competition with their current operations.

David Einhorn: The Irony of It All

Amazing how much heat you have to take when you point out something that is bad about a company.

People who pump up stocks for good reasons as well as those who put down companies for good reasons are performing an important service.

It's the lazy, less intelligent people who have poorly researched analysis that investors should criticize.

I have found David's work to be well thought out.

Transocean: Drilling For Profits

Thanks ace22 and User 151634.

Looks like we all agree on this one! Unless oil falls off a cliff and stays there I think the dips have to be bought.

Oil Will Peak at $150-200 - Barron's Interview

Oil is starting to remind me of the housing bubble. It will eventually boil down to how much does it cost to get the oil to the market. With the newer harder to get supply the price will go up, all the way to about $60 per barrel. If the world would just drill more and invest more in the necessary infrastructure there is no reason oil can't move at least 20% down from here.

The world needs to permanently change it's habits of wasting huge amounts of oil to a more conservative stance lowering world demand, aided by alternative fuel sources to a level where supply and demand meet. Currently we are in balance but the perception that we won't be in a couple years is the driving force behind this oil rally. Eventually I fully believe we will be in balance but the million dollar question is will it happen soon enough to avoid a supply demand imbalance that sends oil to $200+.

I can't believe were still not drilling more on land and offshore, alternatives need more time to catch up and it will take a couple of years before we see a drop of oil from many of the best prospects we have. Why are we waiting? Maybe we want to force everyone into an electric car in 2010 first.

Microhoo Part Deux: Is Jerry Selling Out His Employees?

I'm going to miss the adult chat rooms with women who like animals.

Oh wait, after the announced partnership with GOOG, MSFT will go away.

Chatrooms saved! ... but supported by GOOG ads.

Microsoft in Perfect Position to Undercut Previous Yahoo Offer

Your calculations may not be so relevant but your position on the stock is, even if I don't agree with your reasoning.

The upside in YHOO is capped at $33 and MSFT would be fools to pay that now with the position they are in. Did you see how the board reacted to MSFT's dropped bid? It wasn't just them either the employees were the same way. The cultures of these two companies won't mix. Just ask some of the Yahoos.

Icahn and the rest of them are making a killing and a lot of publicity for themselves while they get even richer as once they are finished pumping they dump their shares into the hype they created.

The risk/reward is very in favor of shorting the shares at the current price near $28. I see 3 up and 8 down.

In full disclosure I have started a short position in YHOO and will be adding to it over $28 if it makes it there.

The Long Case for DynCorp

Yet you own LLL, lol.

These guys do good work and if you look at how much it costs the government to do it own their own DCP offers a discount. There use will continue to increase as they are very well run. Any company with 14,000 employees in highly dangerous places will have some problems here or there. They do better then most.

Immersion Corporation: Turning a Corner

Correction to above story....

The continuing revenue from Sony as a result of the litigation was incorrectly stated as being 1.875M per qtr for 3 years and .750M per qtr for 10 years.

It is actually 1.875M per qtr for 3 years that will be recognized as .750M per qtr for 10 years. They will record a total of 29.9M as revenue and 2.3M as interest income.

Eye on NYSE-Euronext: The World's Stock Exchange

Thank you,

The eps growth rates I used were analyst estimates on average over the next 5 years not including the cost saving synergies as they are not factored into the current eps numbers. You make a good point that with the synergies factored in the EPS growth is very impressive. However if you believe as some analysts do that they will not be able to continue growing their bottom line by more then 18% then the stock range is about 50 to 75 with the synergies factored in for this year.

What makes this story so interesting is that there is so much uncertainty surrounding how NYX will continue to maintain a high growth rate going forward. There are also questions about how long it will take for the cost saving synergies to really take hold.

I don't think your doing anything wrong. If you believe in the story and the successful expansion of NYX then the stock is undervalued.