Leonard the Monkey

The Short Case for JPMorgan

The loss numbers you give are good conservative estimates. One thing you may want to consider as JPM has been pushed back down to almost it's lows is that the govt. already gave them 25 billion and with TARP 2 coming immediately they will most likely get another 25 billion which they will have for as much time as they need before they pay it back.

This should give them enough time to ride out the storm and eat up other banks businesses along the way as JPM will be considered the strongest bank in the country.

Also by far most of the mortgage losses still stem from CA and FL and the worst area's there have begun stabilizing.

Disclosure: I did short JPM at $35 but I am now long.