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  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    My point is this stock price is baking in a near worst-case scenario. What is so amazing is that the impact of Aetna and the investigation is completely unknown in terms of impact on sales and earnings, and yet the stock price is reflecting total doom. Again, what happens if the impact is minimal? What happens if other HMOs do not follow suit? The upside/downside is completely asymmetric at these levels.
    Oct 2 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    Absolutely an overhang. IF there is any wrong doing, then I expect a fine. I'm not sure how you can have off-label promotion when the have 19 indications on the label. I have not heard of any credible thesis around wrongdoing.
    Oct 2 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    can you explain your valuation? When I remove all non-IS sales I get to ~$10. I don't think that is even realistic, so in my model downside is only a few bucks at most on another Aetna headline.
    Oct 2 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor Poised To Rally To $80 On Continued Sales Growth [View article]
    Yes, my call was exactly the wrong call (at least as of today). I've never seen anything like this. What is difficult for me to comprehend is that the impact of the recent revelations is still a matter of speculation and that we are evaluating a company and management team that has historically delivered for investors and yet are not getting any benefit of the doubt.
    Sep 27 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor Poised To Rally To $80 On Continued Sales Growth [View article]
    I don't think there will be a material change. The Aetna coverage decision is ambiguous and looks like many other coverage policies that do cover Acthar.
    Sep 19 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rockwell Medical Overvalued Based On Significant Risk [View article]
    Perhaps you're confused or it was unclear in the article...

    "This also assumes that RMTI first gains FDA approval to market Calcitriol - the company has recently noted that they are currently in the process of getting their manufacturing facility approved"

    Rockwell acquired Calcitriol along with an APPROVED ANDA... no need for FDA approval... they are simple checking off on manufacturing stability, which is standard
    Sep 14 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor Poised To Rally To $80 On Continued Sales Growth [View article]
    Wow!! During August 2012, Questcor shipped a total of 2,190 vials of Acthar (this is versus 1,650 in July and prior record high of 1,800 in June). NS and DM/PM look great. I think we see $80 sooner than later.....
    Sep 7 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena, Orexigen And Vivus: Obesity Sector Overview - Part 2 [View article]
    Some valid criticism, others not. Tough to predict how this space will unfold. I'm going to wait until the launches and then start some physician surveys. Until then, I'm on the sidelines.
    Aug 21 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Physician Survey Results On Lomitapide And Mipomersen Support Our Thesis [View article]
    I have not talked to any cardiologists, but my gut feeling is these incredibly severe patients are seeing a relatively small number of experts (lipidologists). I expect the company to need a very small sales force and for them to have a very attractive P&L, much like Alexion. Awareness of the product is already high and the company has stated that they are identifying candidates for therapy now. My expectation is the stock runs into a panel/PDUFA and if approved goes up 2-3x from where it is now.
    Jul 2 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]
    I think you should expect utter failure. Sales are stuck at ~$1MM per month. I hope the so-called upward sales trend the CEO is referring to exists because I think the debt holders will hold him to the fire if he is misleading them.
    Jul 2 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]
    I think you should expect utter failure. Sales are stuck at ~$1MM per month. I hope the so-called upward sales trend the CEO is referring to exists because I think the debt holders will hold him to the fire if he is misleading them.
    Andrew
    Jul 2 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]
    Do you have access to a bloomberg machine? My suggestion is to sell your SVNT before it goes any lower.
    Jul 2 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Physician Survey Results On Lomitapide And Mipomersen Support Our Thesis [View article]
    That is not the conclusion. The conclusion is docs prefer lomitapide over mipo. A QD oral is better than an weekly SC injection. Efficacy and tolerability are both better for lomitapide - hence the physician preference. Its not a stretch by any means.
    Jul 2 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Physician Survey Results On Lomitapide And Mipomersen Support Our Thesis [View article]
    I'm long AEGR because of the data and the physician preference. Not the other way around.
    Jul 2 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Physician Survey Results On Lomitapide And Mipomersen Support Our Thesis [View article]
    Who says?
    Jul 2 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
69 Comments
42 Likes