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  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    yeah, just so you know if you are a hedge fund with several billion dollars under management and you own stocks like AET, the management of those companies listen to you. Likewise, when you donate money to a political party or candidate, they also tend to do things for you. I guess these concepts are hard for you to grasp.
    Andrew
    Oct 2, 2012. 11:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Results Of Rheumatology Physician Survey Show Strong Uptake Of Acthar [View article]
    There will be inherent selection biases in these surveys (i.e. a greater proportion of rheums who use Acthar respond to the survey). Nevertheless, they are helpful in giving a temperature read.

    I paid for this survey. LifeSci Advisors serves a growing number of life sciences companies, but Questcor is not one of them. I don't work for institutional investors, either. I like QCOR and own the stock so I conduct these surveys for my own benefit and don't have any agenda other than educating people and expressing my belief that this stock is undervalued.
    Mar 7, 2013. 06:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Results Of Our Physician Survey Suggest Increased Sales For Acthar Gel [View article]
    I think the point is that Acthar is already very difficult to get. The patients that need it are really in terrible shape and have failed all else. There are documented cases where Acthar works in theres patients and the physicians are saying that. If that is the case, then I believe insurers will continue to pay for the drug although they will put up roadblocks like prior authorization. Despite these barriers, physicians and patients who need the drug should get access. I think some of this is just posturing by the HMOs. Ultimately, vial numbers and sales will indicate reality. At this valuation, however, investors are expecting close to the worst.
    Oct 8, 2012. 12:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Physician Survey Supports Prescription Data: Expecting 1Q Fusilev Growth [View article]
    I believe the March WK data comes out soon. I will certainly let you know.

    Regarding the threat of generic leucovorin, I think people don't realize generic leucovorin is not an AB rated substitutable generic for levoleucovorin. These are two different products, with two different dosages. Hence, pharmacies can't just swap about a generic leucovorin for Fusilev. Fusilev is being reimbursed. Very very few physicians have had problems getting reimbursed. Even if the generic comes back, why would physicians switch back? They make more money with Fusilev (ASP+6%). Sure, some public hospitals that are cost sensitive may switch back, but that is roughly 20% of the market. The private practices and patients with private health insurance, or the majority of the market, will remain with Fusilev - that's my bet.
    Apr 17, 2012. 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax: Getting The Facts Straight [View article]
    Pretty silly to be long this stock. The Brenner Group is conducting a wind-down of operations, which includes negotiating the liabilities. This may take 12 months to conduct, but this is standard protocol.
    Aug 29, 2013. 09:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Expected To Take A Hit [View article]
    This is one of the most ill-informed articles I have read in a long time on Seeking Alpha. You state, "Kynamro has not displayed any potential serious damage to the liver." Have you even looked at the drug's label???? Here is the link to it in case you can't find it:
    http://www.kynamro.com~/media/Files/Kynamro/...
    Notice the black box warning for hepatotoxicity. You may be the one person on the planet who is interested in these stocks and the HoFH market that can't identify this important feature of the label.
    Furthermore, every analyst that I've seen who has done a comparison of Juxtapid and Kynamro, has concluded that that Juxtapid is the superior product on efficacy, safety, and tolerability. I do, however, see ill-informed speculators, such as yourself, who are backing Kynamro for some inexplicable reason. The overall superiority was even evident in the FDA panel that was held prior to approval of both products. I'm 99% sure you were not paying attention to the panel or you have no ability to interpret drug data. In addition, we have conducted a survey of lipidologists that showed Juxtapid was preferred 2:1 over Kynamro (http://bit.ly/nEORWJ). At the very minimum, you should make an attempt to get the facts straight.
    Feb 2, 2013. 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    Have you reviewed the companies 8-K? If so, you'd have a pretty good idea of how many vials they sell in that indication, where it is the standard of care.
    Oct 2, 2012. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    My point is this stock price is baking in a near worst-case scenario. What is so amazing is that the impact of Aetna and the investigation is completely unknown in terms of impact on sales and earnings, and yet the stock price is reflecting total doom. Again, what happens if the impact is minimal? What happens if other HMOs do not follow suit? The upside/downside is completely asymmetric at these levels.
    Oct 2, 2012. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]
    Unfortunately, the first couple of months of a drug launch are quite predictive of how a drug does. There is a common misconception that launches can get better over time. There are, of course, slow and steady launches, like some hospital products (i.e. OPTR), but this is dialysis where the center or chain makes the purchase. I'm not sure why you even need sales reps. This launch is just a Feraheme 2.0. Because Amgen has been a source of financial gain for the dialysis providers for a couple of decades, I think it will be very hard for AFFY/Takeda to come in an take share by offering a little bit of a discount. The supply agreements with Fresenius and DaVita are an indication. My view is that if the any dialysis providers, including the small ones, are going to make a switch, they would do it now and that would be reflected in sales. Centers would have to change their EPO protocol, which is not that easy to do overnight and I'm not sure they are going to do it just to make a few bucks for a couple of years and assume the risk associated with a new product. I'm sure that AFFY will say that they don't have Q-code and that the centers need to trial the product first before sales come in. I've seen that movie play out and it doesn't end well. Keep in mind that AFFY also has a big pharma partner that will weigh in on decisions. If there is not a compelling medical need for a product or a big price discount, it doesn't sell. That's a good rule of thumb. My two cents.....
    Jun 20, 2012. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aegerion's Lomitapide - FDA Approval, Strong Launch, Stock Price Increase Anticipated [View article]
    My survey was NOT renumerated and it was not bogus.
    Oct 24, 2012. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    Absolutely an overhang. IF there is any wrong doing, then I expect a fine. I'm not sure how you can have off-label promotion when the have 19 indications on the label. I have not heard of any credible thesis around wrongdoing.
    Oct 2, 2012. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: What's Really Changed? [View article]
    can you explain your valuation? When I remove all non-IS sales I get to ~$10. I don't think that is even realistic, so in my model downside is only a few bucks at most on another Aetna headline.
    Oct 2, 2012. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor Poised To Rally To $80 On Continued Sales Growth [View article]
    Yes, my call was exactly the wrong call (at least as of today). I've never seen anything like this. What is difficult for me to comprehend is that the impact of the recent revelations is still a matter of speculation and that we are evaluating a company and management team that has historically delivered for investors and yet are not getting any benefit of the doubt.
    Sep 27, 2012. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Physician Survey Results On Lomitapide And Mipomersen Support Our Thesis [View article]
    That is not the conclusion. The conclusion is docs prefer lomitapide over mipo. A QD oral is better than an weekly SC injection. Efficacy and tolerability are both better for lomitapide - hence the physician preference. Its not a stretch by any means.
    Jul 2, 2012. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Physician Survey Results On Lomitapide And Mipomersen Support Our Thesis [View article]
    I'm long AEGR because of the data and the physician preference. Not the other way around.
    Jul 2, 2012. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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