Yellen Leads The Most Dovish Fed In History
- The Yellen Fed is shirking the inflation portion of the dual mandate to an unprecedented degree.
- Even the failed Burns and Miller Feds which presided over the stagflation of the 1970s set Fed funds rates above core inflation.
- The Yellen Fed has held the Fed funds rate at 1.7% BELOW, core inflation.
- Even PBS says Yellen has moved to far to the left.
- New study ranks last 7 Federal Reserves since 1958.
Dudley, Goldman Sachs And The 1937 Myth
- Ex Goldman Sachs chief economist and New York Fed President, Bill Dudley, has said he is afraid of a replay of 1937.
- Today is nothing like 1937.
- The Fed is in danger of inflating another bubble as it did in 2003 with lax supervision and super low rates.
Forget About Democrats And Republicans, It's The Doves And Hawks That Move Markets
- The inflation hawks were in the majority last week at the end of QE3.
- The median Fed voter will be more dovish in 2015.
- Still Fed funds rate will most likely rise to 1.125% by December 31, 2015.
0% Rates And QE Forever?
- Bond yields fell to levels last week implying that we will have 0% rates for a long time.
- Macro data suggests that an early 2015 rate hike is likely.
- Fed's unemployment target could be hit in February 2015 if present trends continue.
- Dollar has not risen enough to meaningfully impact inflation.
Earnings Vs. Ebola
- Market close to 10% correction.
- Overblown fear is driving this correction.
- Fat earnings and low multiples can beat back investors' fears about things like Ebola.
The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout
- The bond market is fighting the Fed, and the Fed will win next year.
- Ben Bernanke said last week that he is trying to lock in a fixed rate on his mortgage. He seems worried about higher interest rates. You should be too.
- The dot plot puts median forecast for the Fed funds rate was 1.375% to end 2015, and 2.875% to end 2016, and 3.75% to end 2017.
- Shorting the 2-year T-note is the best way to profit from rising short-term rates.
- 2-year T-note could easily rise over 100 basis points in the next year based on the dot plot.
- Big hedge funds take a hit on the losing Frannie trade.
- Some of the price action in the stock market could have been caused by indiscriminate selling to meet investor redemptions.
- Buffett was buying in the market rout.
To CalPERS: Go Small And Go Young Or Get Out
- CalPERS is dumping its hedge funds holdings.
- Pensions funds and endowments have been picking the wrong hedge funds for years.
- Smaller and newer hedge funds significantly outperform the big established hedge funds, but most institutional investors won't invest in emerging hedge funds.
Will Tepper Tantrum Sink The Bond Bubble?
- Billionaire announces short on bonds.
- Euro-dollar carry trade supports U.S. bonds.
- Short bonds and long stocks exposes Appaloosa to risks if economy stumbles.
Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk
- Dr. Shiller deserved the Nobel Prize.
- Shiller's CAPE ratio appears to have little predictive power and is usually bearish.
- CAPE ratio and other "predictive" measures of stock prices will be victims of their own success.
Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950
- There is a very low chance of a correction in Q2.
- There is a one in three chance that the market closes above 2000.
- The problems with Russian aggression are not new and are unlikely to affect the stock market.
- If This Is A Replay Of The Asian Crisis Of 1997-1999, It Could Be Good For Stocks
- S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014
- Bernanke And Fed Rewrite History One Lecture And One Editor At A Time
- FDIC Nominee Needs To Prove Himself As An Opponent Of Too Big To Fail
- 14 Banks That Have Bigger Federal Debt Guarantees Than Solyndra
- Fed Bailout Of Wall Street And Foreign Banks Dwarfed TARP
- JPMorgan Should Still Be on the Hook for Madoff/Levy Scheme
- Lessons From Treasury's Citigroup Share Dump
- Declining Volumes Slow U.S. Treasury's Exit of Citigroup
- TARP Deadbeat Bank List Tops 120 in August
- Government Is the Market for Preferred Stock
- Treasury Unlikely to Complete Citigroup Share Sale on Time
- Can TARP Jr. Get 60 Votes in the Senate?
- Goldman Sachs Settlement Proves the SEC Cares More about Politics Than Protecting Investors
- Is Geithner to Blame for Citi's Decline and Rally?
- The Credit Card Bailout
- Summer Doldrums and Earnings Slow the U.S. Treasury's Citigroup Share Sales
- U.S. Treasury Halts Citigroup Share Sale Ahead of Earnings
- TARP Deadbeats List Climbs as Congress Votes on Expansion Bill
- Predicting the Next Big Banks to Exit TARP
- Blackout Periods Slow Citigroup Share Sale