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0% Rates And QE Forever?
- Bond yields fell to levels last week implying that we will have 0% rates for a long time.
- Macro data suggests that an early 2015 rate hike is likely.
- Fed's unemployment target could be hit in February 2015 if present trends continue.
- Dollar has not risen enough to meaningfully impact inflation.
Earnings Vs. Ebola
- Market close to 10% correction.
- Overblown fear is driving this correction.
- Fat earnings and low multiples can beat back investors' fears about things like Ebola.
The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout
- The bond market is fighting the Fed, and the Fed will win next year.
- Ben Bernanke said last week that he is trying to lock in a fixed rate on his mortgage. He seems worried about higher interest rates. You should be too.
- The dot plot puts median forecast for the Fed funds rate was 1.375% to end 2015, and 2.875% to end 2016, and 3.75% to end 2017.
- Shorting the 2-year T-note is the best way to profit from rising short-term rates.
- 2-year T-note could easily rise over 100 basis points in the next year based on the dot plot.
- Big hedge funds take a hit on the losing Frannie trade.
- Some of the price action in the stock market could have been caused by indiscriminate selling to meet investor redemptions.
- Buffett was buying in the market rout.
To CalPERS: Go Small And Go Young Or Get Out
- CalPERS is dumping its hedge funds holdings.
- Pensions funds and endowments have been picking the wrong hedge funds for years.
- Smaller and newer hedge funds significantly outperform the big established hedge funds, but most institutional investors won't invest in emerging hedge funds.
Will Tepper Tantrum Sink The Bond Bubble?
- Billionaire announces short on bonds.
- Euro-dollar carry trade supports U.S. bonds.
- Short bonds and long stocks exposes Appaloosa to risks if economy stumbles.
Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk
- Dr. Shiller deserved the Nobel Prize.
- Shiller's CAPE ratio appears to have little predictive power and is usually bearish.
- CAPE ratio and other "predictive" measures of stock prices will be victims of their own success.
Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950
- There is a very low chance of a correction in Q2.
- There is a one in three chance that the market closes above 2000.
- The problems with Russian aggression are not new and are unlikely to affect the stock market.
- If This Is A Replay Of The Asian Crisis Of 1997-1999, It Could Be Good For Stocks
- S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014
- Bernanke And Fed Rewrite History One Lecture And One Editor At A Time
- FDIC Nominee Needs To Prove Himself As An Opponent Of Too Big To Fail
- 14 Banks That Have Bigger Federal Debt Guarantees Than Solyndra
- Fed Bailout Of Wall Street And Foreign Banks Dwarfed TARP
- JPMorgan Should Still Be on the Hook for Madoff/Levy Scheme
- Lessons From Treasury's Citigroup Share Dump
- Declining Volumes Slow U.S. Treasury's Exit of Citigroup
- TARP Deadbeat Bank List Tops 120 in August
- Government Is the Market for Preferred Stock
- Treasury Unlikely to Complete Citigroup Share Sale on Time
- Can TARP Jr. Get 60 Votes in the Senate?
- Goldman Sachs Settlement Proves the SEC Cares More about Politics Than Protecting Investors
- Is Geithner to Blame for Citi's Decline and Rally?
- The Credit Card Bailout
- Summer Doldrums and Earnings Slow the U.S. Treasury's Citigroup Share Sales
- U.S. Treasury Halts Citigroup Share Sale Ahead of Earnings
- TARP Deadbeats List Climbs as Congress Votes on Expansion Bill
- Predicting the Next Big Banks to Exit TARP
- Blackout Periods Slow Citigroup Share Sale
- The Black Swan Hits the Citigroup Share Sale
- TARP Jr. Endorsed by House Committee
- Another 'Healthy' TARP Bank Seized