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Linus Wilson

 
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  • 0% Rates And QE Forever?
    Mon, Oct. 20 DTUL, DTUS, IEF 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Bond yields fell to levels last week implying that we will have 0% rates for a long time.
    • Macro data suggests that an early 2015 rate hike is likely.
    • Fed's unemployment target could be hit in February 2015 if present trends continue.
    • Dollar has not risen enough to meaningfully impact inflation.
  • Earnings Vs. Ebola
    Wed, Oct. 15 IEF, TLT, VOO 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Market close to 10% correction.
    • Overblown fear is driving this correction.
    • Fat earnings and low multiples can beat back investors' fears about things like Ebola.
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout
    Mon, Oct. 6 DTUS, DTYS, PST 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The bond market is fighting the Fed, and the Fed will win next year.
    • Ben Bernanke said last week that he is trying to lock in a fixed rate on his mortgage. He seems worried about higher interest rates. You should be too.
    • The dot plot puts median forecast for the Fed funds rate was 1.375% to end 2015, and 2.875% to end 2016, and 3.75% to end 2017.
    • Shorting the 2-year T-note is the best way to profit from rising short-term rates.
    • 2-year T-note could easily rise over 100 basis points in the next year based on the dot plot.
  • Frannie Folly
    Fri, Oct. 3 FNMA 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Big hedge funds take a hit on the losing Frannie trade.
    • Some of the price action in the stock market could have been caused by indiscriminate selling to meet investor redemptions.
    • Buffett was buying in the market rout.
  • To CalPERS: Go Small And Go Young Or Get Out
    Fri, Sep. 19 SPY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • CalPERS is dumping its hedge funds holdings.
    • Pensions funds and endowments have been picking the wrong hedge funds for years.
    • Smaller and newer hedge funds significantly outperform the big established hedge funds, but most institutional investors won't invest in emerging hedge funds.
  • Will Tepper Tantrum Sink The Bond Bubble?
    Fri, Sep. 5 DTYS, SPY, TBF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Billionaire announces short on bonds.
    • Euro-dollar carry trade supports U.S. bonds.
    • Short bonds and long stocks exposes Appaloosa to risks if economy stumbles.
  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk
    Fri, Aug. 22 DIA, VOO, SPY 181 Comments

    Summary

    • Dr. Shiller deserved the Nobel Prize.
    • Shiller's CAPE ratio appears to have little predictive power and is usually bearish.
    • CAPE ratio and other "predictive" measures of stock prices will be victims of their own success.
  • Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950
    Tue, Apr. 1 SPY 25 Comments

    Summary

    • There is a very low chance of a correction in Q2.
    • There is a one in three chance that the market closes above 2000.
    • The problems with Russian aggression are not new and are unlikely to affect the stock market.
  • If This Is A Replay Of The Asian Crisis Of 1997-1999, It Could Be Good For Stocks
    Thu, Jan. 30 DIA, IVV, VOO 4 Comments
  • S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014
    Dec. 31, 2013 SPY 12 Comments
  • Bernanke And Fed Rewrite History One Lecture And One Editor At A Time
    Mar. 26, 2012 C, DB, GS 4 Comments
  • FDIC Nominee Needs To Prove Himself As An Opponent Of Too Big To Fail
    Nov. 17, 2011 KBE, BAC, C 11 Comments
  • 14 Banks That Have Bigger Federal Debt Guarantees Than Solyndra
    Oct. 3, 2011 C, JPM, BAC 1 Comment
  • Fed Bailout Of Wall Street And Foreign Banks Dwarfed TARP
    Aug. 25, 2011 UBS, BAC, MS 1 Comment
  • JPMorgan Should Still Be on the Hook for Madoff/Levy Scheme
    Mar. 1, 2011 JPM Comment!
  • Lessons From Treasury's Citigroup Share Dump
    Dec. 28, 2010 C, AIG 4 Comments
  • Declining Volumes Slow U.S. Treasury's Exit of Citigroup
    Sep. 27, 2010 XLF, C, BAC 6 Comments
  • TARP Deadbeat Bank List Tops 120 in August
    Sep. 15, 2010 XLF, ABCW, AIG 4 Comments
  • Government Is the Market for Preferred Stock
    Aug. 8, 2010 XLF, GMA, GJM 7 Comments
  • Treasury Unlikely to Complete Citigroup Share Sale on Time
    Jul. 25, 2010 XLF, MS, C 37 Comments
  • Can TARP Jr. Get 60 Votes in the Senate?
    Jul. 23, 2010 XLF, SPY, KBE 3 Comments
  • Goldman Sachs Settlement Proves the SEC Cares More about Politics Than Protecting Investors
    Jul. 19, 2010 GS, RBS, C 7 Comments
  • Is Geithner to Blame for Citi's Decline and Rally?
    Jul. 14, 2010 C, SPY, BAC 11 Comments
  • The Credit Card Bailout
    Jul. 4, 2010 C, AXP, BAC 16 Comments
  • Summer Doldrums and Earnings Slow the U.S. Treasury's Citigroup Share Sales
    Jul. 2, 2010 C, XLF, SPY 2 Comments
  • U.S. Treasury Halts Citigroup Share Sale Ahead of Earnings
    Jul. 1, 2010 C, GS, WFC 12 Comments
  • TARP Deadbeats List Climbs as Congress Votes on Expansion Bill
    Jun. 16, 2010 XLF, KBE, SPY 6 Comments
  • Predicting the Next Big Banks to Exit TARP
    Jun. 6, 2010 BAC, C, JPM 9 Comments
  • Blackout Periods Slow Citigroup Share Sale
    Jun. 2, 2010 MS, C, XLF 4 Comments
  • The Black Swan Hits the Citigroup Share Sale
    May. 24, 2010 C, BAC, MS 36 Comments
  • TARP Jr. Endorsed by House Committee
    May. 20, 2010 XLF, KBE, BOCH 3 Comments
  • Another 'Healthy' TARP Bank Seized
    May. 16, 2010 FMER, MBHI, CIT 8 Comments