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Linus Wilson

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  • Stocks More Overvalued Than At 10 Of Last 18 Market Peaks [View article]
    It is not clear what the author defines as a peak or top. If you zoom into those charts you will see thousands of spikes and falls. Why did the author choose only 18 for his analysis? Also it is not clear from day to day if you are at a peak since stocks move up and move down. Just because stocks move down one day does not mean they will not reverse course and move up above the prior high. In short, I fear that this is another example of humans trying to see patterns in randomness.
    Apr 14 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat High-Frequency Traders [View article]
    gelstretch: FLASH BOYS alleges that the exchanges and some brokerages were paid by HFTs so that the HFT could have preferential access to order flow and front run on the orders when the hit other exchanges. That seems like something a jury might find illegal under current statutes if it could be proven. If a trader pays a broker to tell you his customer orders before he makes them, that seems like the broker is conspiring against his customers and profiting from front running. Besides the ethical questions, investing in HFT seems to have huge operational risks right now even if places like Virtu only lose money in 1 in 1000 days.
    Apr 4 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat High-Frequency Traders [View article]
    This is a nice discussion without all the name calling. Small investors have little to worry about HFT in their brokerage accounts. Their brokerage fees are a more costly problem. See or my paper helping smaller traders manage transaction costs at

    I do believe some of the allegations in FLASH BOYS should be investigated since they affect the mutual funds in so many American's retirement portfolios.
    Apr 4 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950 [View article]
    Is that your cover letter? I'm not sure you would be a good fit at the fund.
    Apr 4 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950 [View article]
    Oxriver Capital takes as statistical approach to predict the market several months out. Our investment approach is better explained in our investor presentation. I can send the investor presentation to accredited investors who fill out the 1 minute form at
    Apr 2 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Year Target For The S&P 500 Of 1950 [View article]
    For Oxriver's returns, complete the short form at
    The fund started trading in October 2013.
    Apr 1 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Endangered By Fresh Putin Aggression - Sell SPDR S&P 500 [View article]
    Every day Mr. Kaminis says the same thing. Russia has been doing military actions in the former Soviet Union since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I don't like Russian foreign policy, but since the end of World War II the western powers have had little stomach for direct military confrontation with the Soviet Union or more recently Russia. Crimea unfortunately is more of the same. You can't tell me it was too dangerous to hold U.S. stocks over the last 70 years.
    Mar 28 09:51 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If This Is A Replay Of The Asian Crisis Of 1997-1999, It Could Be Good For Stocks [View article]
    The narrative has been that emerging markets problems are really bad for U.S. stocks. I'm not sure that the U.S. stock returns during the Asian crisis support that narrative.
    Jan 30 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014 [View article]
    A "target" or "best estimate" is the median middle estimate of a forecast. The median is where there is a 50 percent probability that the actual value will be higher or lower. If you here an two analysts forecast that the S&P will close at 2000 by the end of year, there is no way to evaluate if the forecast was accurate unless they specify a range or a standard deviation. One analyst may believe the standard deviation is 1000 points and the other analyst may believe the standard deviation is 10 points. It will be easier to say that the analyst with 10 point standard deviation forecast was wrong because a close of lower than 1980 or higher than 2020 only had a less than 5 percent chance of happening according to the second analyst. The first analyst will only be wrong with 95 percent confidence if the S&P closes above 3000 or below 1000. In other words, a target without a range with some probabilities attached is meaningless. As an aside, the behavioral literature shows most people and experts way too narrow of confidence intervals and are often proved wrong. That is why at Oxriver Capital ( data drives the decision making.
    Jan 3 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014 [View article]
    I can send more information about the fund's quantitative approach to investing to accredited investors who fill out the short form on Oxriver Capital's website at
    Jan 1 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Banking System: Too Bigger To Fail [View article]
    Richard Fisher put together a great speech. Thanks for blogging on it.
    Jan 19 07:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Now Bailing Out The Speculators? [View article]
    It is a puzzle why the administration wants to subsidize landlords. This cannot be a popular program, except upon the special interest it intends to subsidize.
    Feb 1 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDIC Nominee Needs To Prove Himself As An Opponent Of Too Big To Fail [View article]
    at thegoodoledays
    If the FDIC is such a great institution, which is opposed to TBTF, then why is it hiding the names of the recipients of and the details of bailout loan guarantees. It is covering up losses from those bailout loan guarantees. When an organization starts hiding losses, then the organization finds itself in Adelphia and Enron territory. Unfortunately, it is taxpayers who have to pick up the pieces of the FDIC.
    Nov 17 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Can-Kicking Bank Bailout [View article]
    BNP Paribas was bailed out by the US during the financial crisis through several Federal Reserve lending programs. For example, the Fed purchased $3.3 billion of BNP's commercial paper in 2008 and 2009 when the private sector balked at rolling it. See page 29 of

    It is a near certainty that large European banks will be bailed out again by the Federal Reserve because they have been allowed to hold insufficient capital to withstand the current crisis and a potential Greek default.
    Sep 16 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: 'The Greatest Trade Ever' [View article]
    The ABACUS suit was old news to anyone who read Zuckerman's book. Unfortunately, for Zuckerman his book was upstaged by the Micheal Lewis' account with a similar cast of characters.
    Dec 30 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment