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Linus Wilson

 
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  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    There is no reason for that. I recommend you read the prospectuses before doing any investing. You might also want to seek the services of a qualified financial adviser.
    Oct 6 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    Which is exactly the same as my disclosure and everything I said. Long DTUS allows you to profit by higher futures interest rates for the 2-year T-note. Higher interest rates means the T-note goes down in price. Good luck!
    Oct 6 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    Long DTUS is short bonds, and long interest rates. The disclosure said long DTUS.
    Oct 6 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    It's well known I've been long SPY or VOO all year long. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 6 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    No. 2011 was way too early, and Oxriver Capital was not trading. Look at the unemployment chart in 2012 unemployment was 8.5 percent. The taper tantrum last year also was also too early. There was too far to move on unemployment last year. The Fed upped its interest rate forecasts in each meeting this year. My fund only took the position after the September 2014 dot plot. I was actually interested in going long bonds in the summer, but the data said a short makes much more sense as a hedge and a profit opportunity.
    Oct 6 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Legal Ruling Expedites Endgame [View article]
    HERA was a different bill passed before TARP. The TARP is the EESA bill. Fed used emergency powers to make first loan with warrant with consent of the board. There was no seizure for AIG as there was with FNMA and FMCC.
    Oct 6 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    Those are all well considered points. I think the bond market is hearing what it wants to, not what is being said. As for efficient markets, I recall people saying the U.S. stock market was a model of an efficient market in the late 1990s and early 2000 during the dot com bubble. It is much less risky shorting the bond market today than the stock market in the late 1990s.
    Oct 6 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    The Fed tracks core inflation from wage demands and that is increasing. 5.5% is the official non-inflationary rate of unemployment (NAIRU). They say that to have neutral policy stance they need a fed funds at 3.75%, but they don't want to raise rates a percent at a time. They have to make progress in 2015. The baby boom and structural shifts in the demand for skills means labor force participation cannot hit its past peaks.
    Oct 6 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dot Plot Bubble: How To Profit From The Bond Market Rout [View article]
    Ben Bernanke is worried about rising rates. The Fed says they will hike faster than market predicts, and employment is improving faster than Fed forecasts.
    Oct 6 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Legal Ruling Expedites Endgame [View article]
    AIG was never subject to HERA, it was never in conservatorship, and it was not a government sponsored enterprise (GSE).
    Oct 6 08:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Folly [View article]
    http://cnb.cx/1EgJsbe

    Cramer agrees with my thesis that some of the price action on Wednesday was probably due to hedge funds meeting margin calls and preparing for redemptions because of FNMA and FMCC losses.
    Oct 5 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Folly [View article]
    @ forever5683: I think the lottery ticket analogy is apt. If holders treat the common and preferreds as such then you would not have a great deal of your wealth invested in them. If we believe Mr. Ackman's projections and then look at the market pricing, then there is over a 90 percent chance the common will probably be worthless. If you can't stomach a greater than 90% chance of losing your entire investment, you probably should sell.
    Oct 5 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Folly [View article]
    To see an investor who is going through 4 or 5 of grief over FNMA and FMCC. See the video of David Tepper, attached to the article at

    http://buswk.co/1EgFdw5

    He is a pro and is pretty dispassionate. If you cannot be dispassionate about what is and what will be, not what should be, then your position is probably too large. If you think the billionaires validate your holdings, look at how the holdings of the billionaires' funds change when they have to file for Q4 2014. I think you will see in aggregate that they cut their exposure on net.
    Oct 5 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Folly [View article]
    I think you are going through the five stages of grief (http://bit.ly/v8Wd5N)

    1. Denial
    2. Anger
    3. Bargaining
    4. Depression
    5. Acceptance

    I think most of the comments are coming from people at either 1 or 2. A few are at 3. The first ones who get to 5, in my opinion, will have the best returns. They will sell before the deniers finally realize the shares aren't worth any thing. Sell your losers and move on. If you hold, you might make money from here, but I think the odds are stacked against you.
    Oct 3 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Folly [View article]
    If they go public again, it will be because the Treasury sells its senior preferred shares. The junior claims are worthless as things stand now. The case for a public company with bottomless taxpayer guarantees and a public mission is dubious. It is too bad the public shareholders did not do a better job managing the firms in the years prior to 2008.
    Oct 3 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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193 Comments
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