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Linus Wilson  

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  • S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014 [View article]
    I can send more information about the fund's quantitative approach to investing to accredited investors who fill out the short form on Oxriver Capital's website at http://bit.ly/19IphVj
    Jan 1, 2014. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Banking System: Too Bigger To Fail [View article]
    Richard Fisher put together a great speech. Thanks for blogging on it.
    Jan 19, 2013. 07:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Now Bailing Out The Speculators? [View article]
    It is a puzzle why the administration wants to subsidize landlords. This cannot be a popular program, except upon the special interest it intends to subsidize.
    Feb 1, 2012. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDIC Nominee Needs To Prove Himself As An Opponent Of Too Big To Fail [View article]
    at thegoodoledays
    If the FDIC is such a great institution, which is opposed to TBTF, then why is it hiding the names of the recipients of and the details of bailout loan guarantees. It is covering up losses from those bailout loan guarantees. When an organization starts hiding losses, then the organization finds itself in Adelphia and Enron territory. Unfortunately, it is taxpayers who have to pick up the pieces of the FDIC.
    Nov 17, 2011. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Can-Kicking Bank Bailout [View article]
    BNP Paribas was bailed out by the US during the financial crisis through several Federal Reserve lending programs. For example, the Fed purchased $3.3 billion of BNP's commercial paper in 2008 and 2009 when the private sector balked at rolling it. See page 29 of ssrn.com/abstract=1911454

    It is a near certainty that large European banks will be bailed out again by the Federal Reserve because they have been allowed to hold insufficient capital to withstand the current crisis and a potential Greek default.
    Sep 16, 2011. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: 'The Greatest Trade Ever' [View article]
    The ABACUS suit was old news to anyone who read Zuckerman's book. Unfortunately, for Zuckerman his book was upstaged by the Micheal Lewis' account with a similar cast of characters.
    Dec 30, 2010. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Has Good Reason to Be Thankful for TARP [View article]
    Dr. Baker, Warren Buffett only invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs. See my paper "The Goldman Sachs Warrants" at ssrn.com/abstract=1400995
    Nov 17, 2010. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Treasury Stand to Lose on Citibank Shares if It Delays Selling? [View article]
    No. See my letter to the editor in the FT on October 5.
    Oct 7, 2010. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bair: Banks Must Prepare for Higher Rates [View article]
    1. If the market suddenly believes the government is borrowing too much, austerity is the only answer.
    2. If the FDIC and Fed are telling banks to hedge against higher rates, markets should listen. The FDIC has private communications with the Fed, and the Fed more than any other market participant controls short-run interest rates.
    Oct 7, 2010. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the Banks That Have Not Repaid Their TARP Funds [View article]
    My joint research discusses the factors that are associated with early TARP repayment ssrn.com/abstract=1619689
    Oct 1, 2010. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining Volumes Slow U.S. Treasury's Exit of Citigroup [View article]
    I know the folks in the U.S. Treasury press office aren't bothered by facts or figures. Nevertheless, let me give you a few. There are 57 trading days from Sept. 1, to Dec. 14, excluding blackouts. (7.7 B - 3.5 B)/(57 trading days) = 74 million shares per day. The most the UST has averaged was 66 million shares per day. They have averaged 47.5 million per day. The numbers don't make a December 14, exit credible.

    Actually it is much worse than that. Suppose you are right and the UST completes its third 1.5 billion sale by September 30. Then there are only 57 trading days - 21 trading days in September = 36 days until Dec. 14 excluding blackout periods. With the remaining .6B shares sold. The UST has to sell (7.7 B - 3.5 B - .6B)/36 = 114 million shares per day to exit by December 14. They won't risk selling 114 million shares per day in the market for 36 trading days!
    Sep 27, 2010. 07:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Politics of the Small Business Lending Bill [View article]
    My research at ssrn.com/abstract=1527270 shows that the $30b SBLF is a $6.6 billion to $13.0 billion subsidy to small banks.
    Sep 1, 2010. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Is the Market for Preferred Stock [View article]
    The TARP preferred exchange does not affect the 79.9 percent common equity stake from the Fed loan. See page 88 of SIGTARP report at www.sigtarp.gov/report...
    Aug 9, 2010. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Is the Market for Preferred Stock [View article]
    Taxpayers got a 79.9 percent common stock stake in AIG as part of the initial Fed loan.
    Aug 9, 2010. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Is the Market for Preferred Stock [View article]
    Good point! It should say "from September 2008 to the present..."
    Aug 8, 2010. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
207 Comments
189 Likes