Tom Rogue

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

What you say is not only false but very dangerous. Today nobody argues against Peak Oil (only the date) besides Exxon Mobil and the Saudi Aramco (both known for their great scientific objectivity…). You can deny it, but reality speaks by itself.

Listen to what Matthew Simmons says, he knows the energy market in the US as no one else. Why? His company, Simmons&Company (largest energy investment bank in the world) finances most energy projects in the USA. That’s why he advised Bush on energy in his 2000 electoral campaign. So if there is a problem in the energy market he knows about it.

You say there’s plenty of oil, yes there is but no longer the cheap and easy one. In addition, new projects take about 10 years to be developed (and are often not even profitable). Peak Oil is not the end of oil, but the end of cheap and abundant oil. Tell me how the economy and growth will continue once you take off the cheap energy that created the system? Unlike global warming we won’t have to wait 30 years to see it, only 3 or 5 years; I hope Peak Oil is wrong, but the consequences could be devastating. Denying the problem as you do, will only make things worst.

“When the cabin crew admits to anxiety, it is time to panic. The International Energy Agency has always brushed off claims that oil will soon dry up, adopting the tone of a nonchalant air steward guiding jittery travellers through turbulence. This morning, however, the organisation's chief economist, Fatih Birol, tells the Guardian that he expects global production will stop growing in around 2020. It is a remarkable turnaround for the IEA, which only three years ago was insisting that there was no fundamental reason why oil should not continue to grease the cogs of the global economy.” (www.guardian.co.uk/com...)

LB



On Dec 16 07:58 AM petersterling wrote:

> What a load of rubbish. All we have to do is switch to making flexi-fuel
> cars, able to run on CNG-gasoline and the problem is solved for 200
> years. America has discovered 120 years supply of natural gas in
> shales etc., recently. My company alone could provide 10% of America's
> natural gas needs from offshore North Carolina and the Bering Sea
> Deeps resources.
>
> America has 400 years supply of oil in shales in Colorado-Utah-Wyoming,
> which can be retorted into oil for $30 per barrel anytime we want.
>
>
> Peak oil is totally, completely wrong. There's tons of oil and gas
> available at the right price, which is probably $75 per barrel or
> more. At today's oil price the oil companies won't bother opening
> any new fields because there's no profit in it. Once the price goes
> back up we will be turning the tap on big time and there will be
> plenty for everyone...

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

Your comment is interesting. I am a student currently doing research to write my degree’s dissertation (How Peak Oil will affect International Relations) and so I have been able to interview several of the best known energy experts, pessimists and optimists. Most but not all of the pessimists have plans to live in a post-Peak Oil world, such as moving to isolated sustainable farms. They are not uneducated crazy people who believe in UFOs or other weird conspiracy theories… They are former oil companies’ executives (at Total, Amoco, BP), top geologists, and there’s even one former French Environment Minister. I don’t judge that but the problem, Peak Oil, is very serious.

Another example I can give: last summer (1 August 2008) I interviewed IEA’s former Director (long-term planning, LTO Office) a French geophysicist who used to be Director of Economic Studies at Total (one of the 6 “supermajors”), he currently works as an advisor for the French Government. At the end of the hour long interview I asked him if he was rather pessimistic. He answered me very seriously: “I think we are at the end of mankind; the only ones who will survive will be extremely educated and mobile people”, before telling me how economic growth was dependent on cheap energy. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but when we look at the facts and current developments there are no reasons to be optimistic.

While human ingenuity often surprises us, history is here to remind us that several civilisations did not escape an undesired fall; as mentioned by the historian Dr. Joseph Tainter, throughout history, the first of eleven recurrent reasons in the explanation of societal collapses, is “the depletion or cessation of a vital resource or resources on which the society depends” (The Collapse of Complex Societies, p.42). What we need is a Manhattan Project to develop alternative energies, but time is running out fast.





On Dec 15 02:18 PM Gold Barron wrote:

> So are you guys saying that when peak oil hits there will be mass
> anarchy in the streets and everybody will be poor?
>
> I agree that the supply of oil will decline in coming years, but
> hopefully new technology will make up the difference. I am positive
> everything will be okay.
>
> It seems you guys talking about peak oil are almost talking about
> "Mad Max" or "Road Warrior" like outcomes in the future that I find
> very very hard to envision. You may not be describing it as I just
> did, but you are certainly implying complete anarchy. If you believe
> what you are saying, I recommend you purchase a fortress somewhere
> in Alaska stocked with plenty of food, supplies, and weapons, because
> our gold and silver wont be any good when there are raging starving
> lunatics running through the streets killing everybody and burning
> everything down.
>
> For the past 3 months the level of paranoia is increasing amongst
> the people posting on these comment sections. The same sort of people
> that believe in Aliens and Bigfoot. You know? You can see them at
> your local gun shows or flea markets. Paranoid, weak, uneducated
> cowards.
>
>