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Lionel Yeo

 
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  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    really scary stuff in the market going on. Selling across the whole board. i started adding to my PGH position as I love those monthly paychecks coming in. Like PWE as well, but sometimes the comments here can scare me a bit, so when i'm feeling nervous I stand next to the post box and wait for my dividend cheque.
    Oct 11 01:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: How Far Are We In This Correction? [View article]
    Gotta say, not really much new insights on this one. Basically most of the things we already know.

    "leverage plays a major factor." --- a... duh.....

    "small cap with exploration more affected." ---- a... yeah.
    Oct 11 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I meant 6.8 cents.
    Oct 8 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I meant i got in at 6.8 cents sold out at 20.

    Not averaging down due to the wide sell down. If I had more dry powder I would but I got in a bit early.
    Oct 8 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I own most of the natural gas stocks discussed here. My approach is to gather about 20 of them and filter out half.
    I like exco because Wilbur and Watsa are in the stock at +$8. So I got in around 5.50. This one is tougher ride.

    But I have to thank Wilbur when I did bank of ireland. He got it at 10cents, I got in a 6.8 sold out at 20cents.
    Oct 6 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    It is a ponzi scheme if the underlining business does not recover your cost of capital. That means you are only returning 99 cents for every 1 dollar you collect.

    Things like FB twitter and whatsapp are valued at billions, yet there's a lack of cash flow to support these valuations.

    Looking across at PWE's 2013 Q2 numbers, I'm surprised to see their realized price at $83. Most likely due to the spread between WTI and actual and USD/CAD.

    With improved metrics it will depend on the wti spread, usd/cad and operating performances.
    Oct 5 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    Average prices last year were in the 80s and the year before was close to 70s.
    The stock price is lower than those periods.

    I don't see oil crashing as I have maintained that OPEC regulates the market. I can also tell you that shale oil costs are very high. ` $45/bbl. This is not factoring much steeper decline curves we're seeing.

    If you want to talk about Opex less Div and Capex. I suggest you look south across at some of the big names in the shale. Continental and Pioneer resources.

    Cont has - 1.2B in cashflow while Pionneer has - 700m. Both pay next to no dividends. The whole shale story is a ponze scheme where the returns don't cover the capex. I struggle to find an O&G producers that has positive cashflow after capex and diviends.
    Oct 5 11:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I'm not worried about nat gas. The chart shows a long term growth of about 25-50 cents a year. With so many NG companies doing badly it's only a matter of time before either demand increases or supply decreases or both. i find it hard to believe we have free energy forever.
    Oct 5 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    this latest oil sell off has really been quite extreme. The crude and NG only sold off a few percentage but the equity has been seriously hit. No reason behind it. I suppose the feel is long term price erosion. NG is still around $4 higher than the $2 in Oct 2012. Several companies have hedges in place.

    I expect NG to continue its 10% raise YOY to about 4.80.
    Oct 3 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    298 x 4 = 1,192m. that's why...
    Sep 30 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    Must we keep going about this point like you guys don't understand income and expense.

    First. So what if they liquidate the company and give me all the returns in dividends. I'll happily take $14 in dividends.

    Second, what's the problem of earning $298m and paying out $69m in dividends, $54m of that in cash?
    Sep 30 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    Back to real business. Dividend back. 'Accounting Scandal' much muted. Good luck with the lawyers trying to prove the accounting was intentional and explaining the drop in the share price vs the market. Blow out quarter and fundamentals on the way. This is one of those stocks you buy low and hold for 10 years.

    The real de-risk will be when they sell $1B of assets and reduce the debt down to $1.5 plus or 1.5X operating cash flow. I'll be comfortable around that level.
    Sep 29 10:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    There was a triangle pattern on gold as I wrote in my last piece. If gold holds 1200 it should put up a base. I see the pattern as more of USD strength than gold weakness. Pretty long support around 1200 running a few years.
    Sep 29 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Canadian Oil And Gas Stocks With Improving Fundamentals [View article]
    Yes, very amazing to me. We've got oil at 92+ NG around $4.00. The energy stocks are trading as thou tomorrow we don't need energy. Just extreme. I'm just sitting tight.
    Sep 22 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jump On GDX To Ride The Moon Shot In Gold [View article]
    i have another definition.

    An investors is someone who invests based on the intrinsic value of a stock.

    A trader is someone who invests based on the demand of a stock.
    Sep 22 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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