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Lionel Yeo

 
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  • NatGas Could Spike Much Higher If Cold Pattern Holds [View article]
    Don't make yourselves crazy trading on weather news. It's a complete waste of time.

    First, there's a lot of technical trading going on. nothing to do with the weather. it could be cold and then drop due to expectations or the reverse.

    3.65 to $5 is nothing on NG. What you want to be focusing on is the medium trend. Which is the storage vs an average or slightly cold weather. We know we're below trend on storage. We know that weather has opened up cold or reasonable. Likely hood of average or better is about 70%. We know that NG at lower prices increase heating demand.

    The elephant in the room is weather production drops due to drop in crude oil. That I don't know. It's possible that everyone throws the towel if oil remains <$80. It doesn't really matter.
    Nov 24, 2014. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Could Spike Much Higher If Cold Pattern Holds [View article]
    Hi James,

    I've concluded a study on NG about 1 year ago. I'm a Oil and Gas Commercial Consultant btw.

    You're current, low prices increase demand. We have a large number of chemical players setup shop in the US and an increased LNG projects coming up. However, the lead times are quite spread out 2015 - 2020. There's no doubt prices will head by to their long term averages of $7.50 but it will take some time for demand to increase and supply to drop.
    Nov 21, 2014. 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Could Spike Much Higher If Cold Pattern Holds [View article]
    Don't bother with the equity. If you want to play winter, just buy UNG or Boil but hold only 2-3 months.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Could Spike Much Higher If Cold Pattern Holds [View article]
    I think ng is looking good.

    1) we're below 5 year storage numbers.

    2) pricing isn't aggressive, so if winter is cold expect a certain amount of demand creation just due to lower prices.

    3) I'm interested to see what happens with the drop in oil prices whether this cuts associated gas.

    4) Hopefully for good numbers
    Nov 21, 2014. 07:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Four 'Cures' On Their Way To Help The Oil Price [View article]
    1) Market pricing does not always follow real demand and supply immediately. As with my 5. Why jun this year is due to a combination of factors causing the market to break.

    2) Yes this is known as flipping. Similar to the mortgage bubble in 2009, where the underlining cashflows did not make sense but they were able to cash out. However, it is now impossible to flip at these prices. CHK has been caught doing this in NG.

    3) Shales have been receiving high capital funding due to the 'buzz' factor. Their breakeven pricing is higher than all the onshore conventional.
    Nov 19, 2014. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Four 'Cures' On Their Way To Help The Oil Price [View article]
    1. The drop in oil prices is largerly to do with the shale oil production.
    2. it is responsible for 4.5m barrel increase of bopd in the last 4 years.
    3. Most shale companies are not making money and are cash flow negative after allowing for capex.
    4. $75 oil is disastrous for them.
    5. Opec has also contributed to the problem with a few member states adding production and Libya coming strongly back. We need about 500k barrels out of hte market to stablize at $80.
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Energy targets 2015-19 production CAGR of ~13% [View news story]
    it's been a very scary ride down. had to call my broker and put more $ to keep my positions. didn't expect multiple pressure points across the whole energy sector.

    The good news about this is that low oil prices is going to stop the shale boom from getting out of hand. We did the numbers and the US guys have to be producing over $85 wti to even smell a profit. It's all air there. But crunching down oil prices this should reduce their insane drilling.

    PWE has projected this on $87.5 CAD a barrel. The CAD has moved down so their costing isn't so bad. So they should be able to weather 6 months of low prices. In addition, they'll take the opportunity to do some refurbish work on their wells.

    I'm hoping more rational drilling in the next 36 months and more stable pricing towards $85-$95. That's what it takes Russia and Ven to make money and the shale guys need about $95+. Opec should come in with a mile production cut of 200k - 500k barrels.

    Great thing about shale is that the decline rates are so rapid that without new capex on wells they can take out 1-2m barrels easily.

    I feel it'll be
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jump On GDX To Ride The Moon Shot In Gold [View article]
    There's no certain bet in any investment. However, the risk reward ratio showed a wedge formation and a large swing in either direction. The odds were towards the upside, but things can still go wrong.

    Gold has been taken down by the strong dollar, while the markets react to the money printing. However, what's interesting is gold moving towards $1200 against trend.
    Nov 17, 2014. 07:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Preparing For $10,000 Gold? [View article]
    Top notch subject header! Even I couldn't resist clicking on it!
    Nov 17, 2014. 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    really scary stuff in the market going on. Selling across the whole board. i started adding to my PGH position as I love those monthly paychecks coming in. Like PWE as well, but sometimes the comments here can scare me a bit, so when i'm feeling nervous I stand next to the post box and wait for my dividend cheque.
    Oct 11, 2014. 01:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: How Far Are We In This Correction? [View article]
    Gotta say, not really much new insights on this one. Basically most of the things we already know.

    "leverage plays a major factor." --- a... duh.....

    "small cap with exploration more affected." ---- a... yeah.
    Oct 11, 2014. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I meant 6.8 cents.
    Oct 8, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I meant i got in at 6.8 cents sold out at 20.

    Not averaging down due to the wide sell down. If I had more dry powder I would but I got in a bit early.
    Oct 8, 2014. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I own most of the natural gas stocks discussed here. My approach is to gather about 20 of them and filter out half.
    I like exco because Wilbur and Watsa are in the stock at +$8. So I got in around 5.50. This one is tougher ride.

    But I have to thank Wilbur when I did bank of ireland. He got it at 10cents, I got in a 6.8 sold out at 20cents.
    Oct 6, 2014. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    It is a ponzi scheme if the underlining business does not recover your cost of capital. That means you are only returning 99 cents for every 1 dollar you collect.

    Things like FB twitter and whatsapp are valued at billions, yet there's a lack of cash flow to support these valuations.

    Looking across at PWE's 2013 Q2 numbers, I'm surprised to see their realized price at $83. Most likely due to the spread between WTI and actual and USD/CAD.

    With improved metrics it will depend on the wti spread, usd/cad and operating performances.
    Oct 5, 2014. 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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