The Real Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
Are you sure he has been banned? That would be pretty right wing.
I find the opinions here, whether I agree or disagree with them, a valuable source of insights completely different from mainstream. As long as a contributor does not post harmful or direct attacks, I think they should be allowed to continue.
As a keen follower of both equities and return only investments, I can say that Dividends connect share prices to the actual performance of a business.
With funds and various strategies, I really enjoy simply taking the volatility out of the investment and laughing at people worrying about daily movements.
Early in my career, I used to shun dividend payers as they did not offer a 'deep discount'. Nowadays, I love them, when the market is going down, you still get paid.
Several Chinese firms (like Sino-forest) reported impressive earnings but paid little dividends. I always like to think about that phrase from the Jerry McGuire movie. "Show me the Money", but instead of impressive quarterly results, I prefer "show me the cash" in the form of a nice dividend pay cheque.
Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks [View article]
Interesting model on the pricing. I do like the commentary on the weather projection models, which at this point have a habit of swinging from cold to hot and back to cold. The 14 day forecast is more volatile and I would give less weight to it.
Pengrowth Energy Goes All In On Lindbergh [View article]
Yes, it's very tempting. Naturally there's a fear that we might not know some news coming out, like a dividend cut. But you have to be greedy when others are fearful.
Is It Finally Time To Short U.S. Treasury Bonds? [View article]
Hi, I'm looking to short treasuries as a proxy to hedging interest rates, (e.g for my real estate investments, car etc) especially a 30 year treasury. Do you have any comments on whether the 3x ETF short treasuries are a low cost way to achieve this?
Pengrowth Energy Goes All In On Lindbergh [View article]
Thank you very much.
I was doing research on this company and have decided to add an even bigger position after you're research. Indeed, the thermal oil looks interesting and the monthly dividend is excellent. May we all get rich on PGH!
I return to see we have caught a few bears in the bear traps. Let's see a couple of points.
1. You are absolutely correct dnpvd51. We do know where the most prospective wells are. I have personally worked on economic evaluation for Bakken and Barnett for clients from historic well data and seismic (there is such a thing). Shale is not like conventional, there are main veins and side areas. You'll see the main acreage taken up first before the side areas. I refer to the graphs on individual state production and that production is actually decreasing for Texas and Louisiana.
2. The whole purpose of this article is to explain the price vs production and why production does not seem to be decrease. From the graphs I show that there is a 'play to play' shift that is causing big spikes in production and while early plays like Barnett are slowly decreasing in production, the latest play Marcellus is compensating for the drop. The speculative nature of play to play makes it seem that at least in the short run, production is not inversely related to price (see graph 1).
If play to play did not exist, we would not see production drops in Texas and Louisiana.
Think about that...
3. Yes, I admit Gigem77 that I was a little lazy to pull out the Marcellus chart and instead used a proxy. But the formatting was the same and I wanted to make an easy comparison. There was one with a stacked production with colors but it was harder to look at. Anyone looking at Play to Play would easily identify Marcellus as mainly 'the other states'.
4. Thanks Marpy. You are correct. CHK has been cash flow negative for 11 years in a row. If they didn't flip acreage to other firms, they'll be underwater now.
5. Finally the point by Fracjob on Marcellus continuing to increase in production.
The point made here is the behavior of plays where production spike for 2 years and then start to roll down. I brought up this view using examples of Texas(Barnett), Louisiana (Haynesville Play) to show a re-occurring pattern. I summarized that soon Marcellus will show the same pattern and we will see production drop.
6. You are correct on Ugaz. Get the pops and get out. But it would be unfair just to single out Ugaz. The problem is that the roll cost of NG is high. (try buying tanks and storing it at home). So there are not many instruments that give you long term exposure to NG without roll cost.
On the flip side, since it's expensive to store, NG is open to price spikes and rapid movement.
U.S. Natural Gas: 3-to-6 Month Forecast [View article]
Unfortunately, this month is all about winter and natural gas consumption. It was a very disappointing heat wave to come in especially the key 2 weeks in January.
I don't really care about supply as the increase is marginal at 0.5% and flat when you factor in drops in imports and LNG. If production drops this quarter due to any reasons ( drill rigs, oil price down, NGL's down) all the better. The drop will still be rather slow.
Demand less all the noise from the weather is up due to prices just being lower. But we can escape bad luck with another warm winter leaving a glut. At this point, we have to hope for a cold front from Canada to sweep in. We might see low $4mmbtu if that is the case.
Avoid Paying Taxes The Warren Buffett Way [View article]
The problem with tax is that it's always viewed as the Government taking what is rightfully yours. Most rich people I know have no problem shelling millions on stupid stuff but hate to pay tax. On the other hand, the government needs to fund itself.
U.S. Natural Gas: 3-to-6 Month Forecast [View article]
You're right dnpvd51.
1. I'm quite happy with supply. While production in the US is up 0.6%, total supply to the system is down 0.5% as imports from Canada has dropped.
2. Demand so far has been fairly poor due to early heat in Dec. But I'll like to see last weeks demand to gauge how much increase in consumption just due to lower prices. Winter 2012-13 looks colder than last year. So we should see a nice trend upwards. I'm looking to move out of futures into longer instruments, no doubt NG will be up in the long run 1-3 years.
Based On Today's Trading Behavior, Natural Gas Could Be Headed Toward A Bear Market [View article]
Well this is the main event. Last year saw the 4th hottest winter in 50 years. If you study the storage numbers, you'll see that most storage gets drained out during this next few weeks. I have to admit that owning NG now is really tough especially pricing with the weather. Not helping is a lot of technical traders playing the short trends. I'm still fairly confident that aside for the late winter we see some decent consumption.
The Real Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
I find the opinions here, whether I agree or disagree with them, a valuable source of insights completely different from mainstream. As long as a contributor does not post harmful or direct attacks, I think they should be allowed to continue.
Pengrowth Energy Goes All In On Lindbergh [View article]
Why Are REIT Dividends Like Everlasting Gobstoppers? [View article]
1) They must pay out 90% of free cashflow. They do not account for depreciation.
2) Management gets paid fees based on AUM. They have an incentive to buy assets at higher prices.
3) They're greedy when other's are greedy. Fearful when other's are fearful.
19 Things I Like About Dividends [View article]
As a keen follower of both equities and return only investments, I can say that Dividends connect share prices to the actual performance of a business.
With funds and various strategies, I really enjoy simply taking the volatility out of the investment and laughing at people worrying about daily movements.
Early in my career, I used to shun dividend payers as they did not offer a 'deep discount'. Nowadays, I love them, when the market is going down, you still get paid.
Several Chinese firms (like Sino-forest) reported impressive earnings but paid little dividends. I always like to think about that phrase from the Jerry McGuire movie. "Show me the Money", but instead of impressive quarterly results, I prefer "show me the cash" in the form of a nice dividend pay cheque.
Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks [View article]
Is It Finally Time To Short U.S. Treasury Bonds? [View article]
But the good news is that you'll never wake up 1 day and find that you owe more than you put in.
Pengrowth Energy Goes All In On Lindbergh [View article]
Is It Finally Time To Short U.S. Treasury Bonds? [View article]
I'm looking to short treasuries as a proxy to hedging interest rates, (e.g for my real estate investments, car etc) especially a 30 year treasury. Do you have any comments on whether the 3x ETF short treasuries are a low cost way to achieve this?
Pengrowth Energy Goes All In On Lindbergh [View article]
I was doing research on this company and have decided to add an even bigger position after you're research. Indeed, the thermal oil looks interesting and the monthly dividend is excellent. May we all get rich on PGH!
Natural Gas Is All About Marcellus [View article]
1. You are absolutely correct dnpvd51. We do know where the most prospective wells are. I have personally worked on economic evaluation for Bakken and Barnett for clients from historic well data and seismic (there is such a thing). Shale is not like conventional, there are main veins and side areas. You'll see the main acreage taken up first before the side areas. I refer to the graphs on individual state production and that production is actually decreasing for Texas and Louisiana.
2. The whole purpose of this article is to explain the price vs production and why production does not seem to be decrease. From the graphs I show that there is a 'play to play' shift that is causing big spikes in production and while early plays like Barnett are slowly decreasing in production, the latest play Marcellus is compensating for the drop. The speculative nature of play to play makes it seem that at least in the short run, production is not inversely related to price (see graph 1).
If play to play did not exist, we would not see production drops in Texas and Louisiana.
Think about that...
3. Yes, I admit Gigem77 that I was a little lazy to pull out the Marcellus chart and instead used a proxy. But the formatting was the same and I wanted to make an easy comparison. There was one with a stacked production with colors but it was harder to look at.
Anyone looking at Play to Play would easily identify Marcellus as mainly 'the other states'.
4. Thanks Marpy. You are correct. CHK has been cash flow negative for 11 years in a row. If they didn't flip acreage to other firms, they'll be underwater now.
5. Finally the point by Fracjob on Marcellus continuing to increase in production.
The point made here is the behavior of plays where production spike for 2 years and then start to roll down. I brought up this view using examples of Texas(Barnett), Louisiana (Haynesville Play) to show a re-occurring pattern. I summarized that soon Marcellus will show the same pattern and we will see production drop.
6. You are correct on Ugaz. Get the pops and get out.
But it would be unfair just to single out Ugaz. The problem is that the roll cost of NG is high. (try buying tanks and storing it at home). So there are not many instruments that give you long term exposure to NG without roll cost.
On the flip side, since it's expensive to store, NG is open to price spikes and rapid movement.
U.S. Natural Gas: 3-to-6 Month Forecast [View article]
I don't really care about supply as the increase is marginal at 0.5% and flat when you factor in drops in imports and LNG. If production drops this quarter due to any reasons ( drill rigs, oil price down, NGL's down) all the better. The drop will still be rather slow.
Demand less all the noise from the weather is up due to prices just being lower. But we can escape bad luck with another warm winter leaving a glut. At this point, we have to hope for a cold front from Canada to sweep in. We might see low $4mmbtu if that is the case.
Avoid Paying Taxes The Warren Buffett Way [View article]
U.S. Natural Gas: 3-to-6 Month Forecast [View article]
1. I'm quite happy with supply. While production in the US is up 0.6%, total supply to the system is down 0.5% as imports from Canada has dropped.
2. Demand so far has been fairly poor due to early heat in Dec. But I'll like to see last weeks demand to gauge how much increase in consumption just due to lower prices. Winter 2012-13 looks colder than last year. So we should see a nice trend upwards. I'm looking to move out of futures into longer instruments, no doubt NG will be up in the long run 1-3 years.
Based On Today's Trading Behavior, Natural Gas Could Be Headed Toward A Bear Market [View article]
Australian Real Estate About To Go 'Down Under' [View article]
I think nothing proves a point like making money.
If you are comfortable on FX positions, short AUD/USD is a better combo to hold for medium terms 6mths.