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Lior Cohen  

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  • Is The Brent-WTI Spread About To Widen?
    Thu, Mar. 26 MPC, VLO 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The spread between Brent and WTI contracted in the past several weeks.
    • This spread could start to widen as the U.S. oil market keeps loosening up.
    • The main companies to benefit from the wider spread are oil refineries.
    • The annual average spread between Brent and WTI is still expected to be $7 -- slightly higher than last year.
  • Does Caterpillar Have A Silver Lining?
    Thu, Mar. 26 CAT 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Caterpillar is expected to face several challenges this year including low oil and iron ore prices, lower growth in China’s economy.
    • The company is expected to see a 10% fall in revenue.
    • Despite these perils the company faces, market conditions could improve in the second half of the year, which could benefit its stock.
  • Chesapeake Energy Cuts Capex, Rigs, And Production Guidance
    Wed, Mar. 25 CHK Comment!

    Summary

    • Chesapeake’s production guidance was revised down.
    • The company also cut its capital expenditure.
    • Following these changes, the company still expects to reach cash flow neutral by the end of the year.
  • Is The Recovery Of UNG Underway?
    Mon, Mar. 23 UNG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Natural gas rigs have fallen, albeit production remained relatively stable.
    • The weather is expected to be colder than normal in the Northeast, which could drive back up the demand for natural gas.
    • Next week, the storage could start to pick up again.
  • Will Apple, Russia And India Bring Back Up GLD?
    Mon, Mar. 23 GLD 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent FOMC release brought back up the price of GLD.
    • The demand for gold in India is expected to rise this year.
    • Apple’s new watch could also contribute to the higher demand for gold – but not by much.
    • Central banks keep stocking up on gold.
  • Is USO About To Turn Things Around?
    Fri, Mar. 20 USO 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of USO has dropped during March.
    • OPEC has experienced a modest drop in production, but it doesn't seem inclined to cut its quota anytime soon.
    • U.S. oil production is still expected to remain high in the coming months.
  • Low Gold Prices Continue To Hold Back Yamana Gold
    Fri, Mar. 20 AUY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Yamana Gold bought the Canadian Malartic project last year.
    • The company’s investment in the Canadian Malartic project may not yield a positive return if gold remains at its current level.
    • If gold doesn’t pick up, Yamana may not see a positive ROI on this investment.
  • The FOMC Keeps SLV Alive
    Thu, Mar. 19 SLV 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent FOMC meeting was more hawkish this time.
    • The federal fund rate is expected to rise at a slower pace than previously estimated.
    • This news could keep SLV from falling further down.
  • Higher Spreads Could Fuel Valero Energy's Stock
    Wed, Mar. 18 VLO 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The wider spread between Brent and WTI could keep driving up Valero Energy’s earnings.
    • Ethanol prices are still low and could impede the growth in Valero Energy’s earnings.
    • The company plans lower throughput in the first quarter and will cut back on the capex allocated toward growing its operations.
  • What Is Keeping Vale Down?
    Wed, Mar. 18 VALE 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The ongoing low copper and nickel prices could keep down Vale’s earnings.
    • The company plans to increase its iron ore operations in the coming year, despite the low iron ore prices.
    • Vale sold part of its gold by-product from its Salobo mine to Silver Wheaton - this could partly finance its capex and ease the rise in its debt burden.
  • Arch Coal Continues To Lose Ground
    Tue, Mar. 17 ACI 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Arch Coal’s stock tumbled down by 30% in the past month.
    • The company expects to cut down its operations this year.
    • The low coal prices are partly driven by low natural gas prices.
    • The company’s 2015 committed coal prices are well below the levels recorded last year, which could further reduce its profits.
  • Will The Next FOMC Meeting Bring Down GLD?
    Mon, Mar. 16 GLD 18 Comments

    Summary

    • This week, the FOMC meeting will convene.
    • The meeting may provide additional information about the next rate hike and show any revisions to the FOMC’s economic outlook.
    • The recovery of the U.S. dollar is likely to further pressure down the price of GLD.
  • The High Volatility Of UNG Continues
    Mon, Mar. 16 UNG 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The withdrawal from storage reached 198 Bcf – slightly higher than expected.
    • Despite the drop in rig count, natural gas production is still expected to remain higher than last year.
    • The natural gas storage is projected to pick up in the coming weeks.
  • Anadarko Petroleum Reduces Rig Count And Capex
    Sun, Mar. 15 APC Comment!

    Summary

    • Anadarko Petroleum fell by 10% in the past month.
    • The company plans to cut down its capex and rig count this year.
    • Despite the sharp fall in rig count, production will only slightly decline.
  • Will Pan American Silver Rebound Anytime Soon?
    Fri, Mar. 13 PAAS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Pan American Silver won’t increase its output this year.
    • The company expects to reduce its AISC to $16.
    • If silver prices were to remain at their current low level, it won’t bode well for the company’s outlook.
  • Does Goldcorp Measure Up To Its Peers?
    Fri, Mar. 13 GG 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp plans to expand its gold operations by 20%.
    • Even though the company plans to cut down its AISC, it will remain higher than its peers.
    • Falling gold prices could reduce its profit margins this year.
  • Is It Time To Consider Buying Deere Again?
    Wed, Mar. 11 DE 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Low crop prices are likely to keep Deere’s stock low.
    • The share of U.S. business from total sales could pick up again mainly in the construction segment.
    • Potential rise in interest rates in the U.S. could bring down Deere’s stock.
  • Is Cheniere Energy Still A Worthy Investment?
    Tue, Mar. 10 LNG 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Cheniere Energy's valuation is still reasonable considering its projected earnings once all its terminals become fully operational.
    • The weakness in the natural gas market didn't seem to slow down the progress of Cheniere Energy's stock.
    • There are still some risks and uncertainties that will keep weighing on the company's valuation.
  • The Labor Market Improves - SLV Comes Down
    Mon, Mar. 9 SLV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The latest non-farm payroll brought down SLV, as it surpassed market expectations.
    • The price of SLV declined again in the past week.
    • The physical demand for silver has picked up in recent weeks.
  • Natural Gas Market Heats Up, UNG Rallies
    Mon, Mar. 9 UNG 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG has rallied in recent week.
    • Despite the rise in withdrawals from storage, the demand for natural gas is coming down.
    • The natural gas storage is expected to remain lower than the 5-year average in the coming weeks.
  • Will Silver Wheaton's Latest Deal With Vale Turn A Positive Return?
    Mon, Mar. 9 SLW 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Will Silver Wheaton's latest deal with Vale turn a profit?
    • This deal will further expand Silver Wheaton's revenue from gold.
    • The company's profit from this deal relies on the price of gold.
  • What Is Keeping Freeport-McMoRan Down?
    Thu, Mar. 5 FCX 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan’s stock is still mostly driven by copper prices.
    • The company will reduce its oil and gas operations this year.
    • Lower cash flow could weigh on the company’s ability in reducing its debt.
  • The U.S. Oil Market Remains Loose - What Does It Mean For USO?
    Wed, Mar. 4 USO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of USO has slightly picked up in recent weeks.
    • U.S. oil producers are cutting down rigs and capex, but production is still expected to rise.
    • The U.S. oil market remains loose with oil production and imports exceeding the demand for oil.
  • 5 Notes On Chesapeake Energy's Q4 Earnings
    Tue, Mar. 3 CHK Comment!

    Summary

    • Chesapeake’s production reaches its guidance for the fourth quarter.
    • The company expects to produce less this year than in 2014.
    • The company’s unrealized gains from its oil and gas contracts drove higher its revenue.
  • Natural Gas Storage Sharply Falls, And So Does UNG
    Tue, Mar. 3 UNG 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's withdrawal from storage was higher than the 5-year average, albeit it came short of market expectations.
    • The price of UNG seems to mostly react to the deviation from market expectations in storage change.
    • The high demand, mostly driven by colder-than-normal weather, and falling production could start to push the price of UNG back up.
  • Low Demand For Gold Didn't Help GLD
    Tue, Mar. 3 GLD 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent testimony of the FOMC Chair contributed to the modest rally of GLD.
    • The demand for gold has declined in the past year.
    • Gold mining has gone up in recent years. But as gold producers cut down capex, the growth in gold mining could start to come down.
  • Here's What To Expect From Devon Energy
    Thu, Feb. 26 DVN 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Devon Energy rallied in recent weeks.
    • Devon Energy is still expected to increase its oil production despite low oil prices.
    • The company's hedging strategy has significantly reduced its risk related to commodity prices.
  • What Are Some Of The Challenges And Opportunities Barrick Gold Faces?
    Thu, Feb. 26 ABX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick Gold plans to sell two of its assets to reduce its debt burden.
    • Barrick Gold’s outlook for 2015 shows a modest rise in production that could change once the company sells some of its assets.
    • Copper production is projected to come down this year; this turn of events may further reduce its profitability.
  • Is USO About To Pick Up Again?
    Wed, Feb. 25 USO 6 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. oil rigs continue to come down, even though oil production hasn't fallen.
    • Total global oil production has come down in the past month.
    • Despite the recovery in the price of USO, it continues to underperform WTI.
  • What Chesapeake Energy Needs To Do
    Wed, Feb. 25 CHK 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Chesapeake Energy is likely to adjust to the low oil and gas prices by cutting its number of rigs.
    • The company operates in the Eagle Ford Shale and Haynesville Shale, both of which continue to see a rise in production.
    • If oil and gas prices remain at their current low levels, the Eagle Ford Shale and Haynesville Shale might not have a sizable return.
  • What Is Next For Royal Gold?
    Tue, Feb. 24 RGLD 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Royal Gold have outperformed gold as they rallied by 11.5% this year, to date.
    • The weakness in copper and nickel prices are also adversely affecting its profit margin.
    • The company is likely to show a rise in attributed production this year.
  • Cold Weather Drove Up UNG - What's Next?
    Tue, Feb. 24 UNG 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG have risen by 10% since the beginning of the month.
    • The colder-than-normal weather is pushing up the price of UNG.
    • The storage is projected to be 7% higher than the 5-year average by the end of the extraction season.