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Lior Cohen  

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  • Natural Gas Market Heats Up, UNG Rallies
    Mon, Mar. 9 UNG 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG has rallied in recent week.
    • Despite the rise in withdrawals from storage, the demand for natural gas is coming down.
    • The natural gas storage is expected to remain lower than the 5-year average in the coming weeks.
  • Will Silver Wheaton's Latest Deal With Vale Turn A Positive Return?
    Mon, Mar. 9 SLW 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Will Silver Wheaton's latest deal with Vale turn a profit?
    • This deal will further expand Silver Wheaton's revenue from gold.
    • The company's profit from this deal relies on the price of gold.
  • What Is Keeping Freeport-McMoRan Down?
    Thu, Mar. 5 FCX 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan’s stock is still mostly driven by copper prices.
    • The company will reduce its oil and gas operations this year.
    • Lower cash flow could weigh on the company’s ability in reducing its debt.
  • The U.S. Oil Market Remains Loose - What Does It Mean For USO?
    Wed, Mar. 4 USO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of USO has slightly picked up in recent weeks.
    • U.S. oil producers are cutting down rigs and capex, but production is still expected to rise.
    • The U.S. oil market remains loose with oil production and imports exceeding the demand for oil.
  • 5 Notes On Chesapeake Energy's Q4 Earnings
    Tue, Mar. 3 CHK Comment!

    Summary

    • Chesapeake’s production reaches its guidance for the fourth quarter.
    • The company expects to produce less this year than in 2014.
    • The company’s unrealized gains from its oil and gas contracts drove higher its revenue.
  • Natural Gas Storage Sharply Falls, And So Does UNG
    Tue, Mar. 3 UNG 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's withdrawal from storage was higher than the 5-year average, albeit it came short of market expectations.
    • The price of UNG seems to mostly react to the deviation from market expectations in storage change.
    • The high demand, mostly driven by colder-than-normal weather, and falling production could start to push the price of UNG back up.
  • Low Demand For Gold Didn't Help GLD
    Tue, Mar. 3 GLD 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent testimony of the FOMC Chair contributed to the modest rally of GLD.
    • The demand for gold has declined in the past year.
    • Gold mining has gone up in recent years. But as gold producers cut down capex, the growth in gold mining could start to come down.
  • Here's What To Expect From Devon Energy
    Thu, Feb. 26 DVN 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Devon Energy rallied in recent weeks.
    • Devon Energy is still expected to increase its oil production despite low oil prices.
    • The company's hedging strategy has significantly reduced its risk related to commodity prices.
  • What Are Some Of The Challenges And Opportunities Barrick Gold Faces?
    Thu, Feb. 26 ABX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick Gold plans to sell two of its assets to reduce its debt burden.
    • Barrick Gold’s outlook for 2015 shows a modest rise in production that could change once the company sells some of its assets.
    • Copper production is projected to come down this year; this turn of events may further reduce its profitability.
  • Is USO About To Pick Up Again?
    Wed, Feb. 25 USO 6 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. oil rigs continue to come down, even though oil production hasn't fallen.
    • Total global oil production has come down in the past month.
    • Despite the recovery in the price of USO, it continues to underperform WTI.
  • What Chesapeake Energy Needs To Do
    Wed, Feb. 25 CHK 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Chesapeake Energy is likely to adjust to the low oil and gas prices by cutting its number of rigs.
    • The company operates in the Eagle Ford Shale and Haynesville Shale, both of which continue to see a rise in production.
    • If oil and gas prices remain at their current low levels, the Eagle Ford Shale and Haynesville Shale might not have a sizable return.
  • What Is Next For Royal Gold?
    Tue, Feb. 24 RGLD 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Royal Gold have outperformed gold as they rallied by 11.5% this year, to date.
    • The weakness in copper and nickel prices are also adversely affecting its profit margin.
    • The company is likely to show a rise in attributed production this year.
  • Cold Weather Drove Up UNG - What's Next?
    Tue, Feb. 24 UNG 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG have risen by 10% since the beginning of the month.
    • The colder-than-normal weather is pushing up the price of UNG.
    • The storage is projected to be 7% higher than the 5-year average by the end of the extraction season.
  • Will Yellen Move The Price Of SLV?
    Mon, Feb. 23 SLV 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of SLV fell down in the past week.
    • Will Yellen's testimony move the price of SLV?
    • The rally in the U.S. treasury yields coincided with the drop in silver prices.
  • CONSOL Energy Starting To Pick Up Again
    Fri, Feb. 20 CNX 1 Comment

    Summary

    • CONSOL Energy’s stock fell by 15% in the past six months.
    • The company remains on track to expand its natural gas operations.
    • The coal market is still expected to cool down in the near term, which only makes it more sensible for the company to shift toward natural gas.
  • Will The FOMC Bring Back Up GLD?
    Thu, Feb. 19 GLD 22 Comments

    Summary

    • The minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released.
    • The minutes could indicate that the FOMC members have concerns that could postpone the next rate, which could bring back up GLD.
    • The uncertainty in Europe around the Greek debt problem could play in favor of GLD.
  • Is First Solar's Outlook That Promising?
    Thu, Feb. 19 FSLR 25 Comments

    Summary

    • The company recently struck a deal with Apple.
    • Despite this good news, the company’s situation hasn’t improved much with ongoing low natural gas prices.
    • The company will have to further improve its solar panel efficiency to remain competitive in the long run.
  • What Is Next For Yamana Gold?
    Thu, Feb. 19 AUY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Yamana Gold hasn’t done well in the stock market in recent weeks.
    • The company still expects to increase its gold production this year.
    • But the company also plans to cut down its copper and silver output, which could reduce its profitability.
  • Do The Changes In Supply For Silver Impact SLV?
    Mon, Feb. 16 SLV 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of SLV remained flat in the past several weeks.
    • Let's examine the changes in the supply for silver and its relation to SLV.
    • The recent news from Greece could also play in favor of SLV.
  • Is UNG On Its Road To Recovery?
    Mon, Feb. 16 UNG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG rallied in recent weeks.
    • The colder-than-normal weather could further push up the demand for natural gas.
    • The storage is still expected to be higher than normal by the end of March.
  • Valero Energy Continues To Benefit From Current Market Conditions
    Sun, Feb. 15 VLO 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite the drop in the spread between Brent and WTi, Valero Energy expanded its profit margins.
    • Valero Energy plans to invest less in 2015 and 2016.
    • Low ethanol prices could weigh on the company’s earnings.
  • Chesapeake Energy Doesn't Just Suffer From Low Oil Prices
    Thu, Feb. 12 CHK 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Chesapeake Energy's production still comes from natural gas; low natural gas prices are likely to cut its profits.
    • The company could strive to further increase its oil production in certain regions, such as Eagle Ford.
    • The big question that remains is what the company's direction is for 2015.
  • The U.S. Economy Recovers - GLD Comes Down
    Wed, Feb. 11 GLD 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The non-farm payroll brought down GLD.
    • Rising long-term treasury yields are keeping down GLD.
    • It's still uncertain where the demand for gold in China and India is heading.
  • Do Oil Rig Counts Matter?
    Wed, Feb. 11 USO 14 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. oil rigs have dropped in recent weeks.
    • This was one of the reasons for the recent rally in oil prices.
    • Do oil rigs provide a good indication for the changes in U.S. oil production?
  • Higher Rates And Improved U.S. Labor Market Hold Back SLV
    Mon, Feb. 9 SLV 10 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of SLV declined by 9% since its high a few weeks back.
    • The recent Non-farm payroll passed expectations and coincided with the decline of SLV.
    • The markets have revised up their expectations for a rate hike in mid-2015.
  • The Weakness In The Natural Gas Market Persists
    Mon, Feb. 9 UNG 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG kept coming down last week.
    • The low extraction from storage is related to the warmer-than-normal weather.
    • The recent rally in oil didn't bring UNG back up.
  • Is FirstEnergy's Rally Driven By Low U.S. Treasury Yields?
    Sat, Feb. 7 FE 5 Comments

    Summary

    • FirstEnergy’s stock added nearly 30% in the past six months.
    • Have low U.S. treasury yields increased the demand for FirstEnergy?
    • What are the other factors that could also drive up shares of FirstEnergy?
  • 3 Takeaways From Anadarko Petroleum's Earnings Report
    Thu, Feb. 5 APC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Anadarko Petroleum showed EPS of $0.37 per share in the fourth quarter.
    • Despite the drop in revenue and earnings, the company reached its quarterly goals on production and showed higher yield for the quarter compared to the previous year.
    • The company still faces several risks worth exploring.
  • Silver Wheaton Outshines Silver
    Thu, Feb. 5 SLW 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Wheaton has outperformed silver in the past three months.
    • The company has also done better than its peers.
    • What it keeping the company performing better than its peers and silver?
  • Oil Could Start To Pick Up In The Second Half Of 2015
    Tue, Feb. 3 OIL, USO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Global oil production is expected to grow slower than previously estimated.
    • US oil stockpiles are only slightly elevated for the period.
    • Does the Hotelling model explain something about the current low oil prices?
    • OPEC could moderately reduce its output in the second half of the year.
  • Between The U.S. Economic Recovery And Global Slowdown There Is GLD
    Mon, Feb. 2 GLD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The FOMC is still likely to raise rates in the coming months, but the global economic slowdown could still keep up GLD.
    • I reexamine the relation between GLD and the U.S. dollar.
    • The upcoming non-farm payroll report could bring GLD further down.
  • Cold Weather Isn't Enough To Turn UNG Around
    Fri, Jan. 30 UNG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Colder-than-normal weather in parts of the U.S. wasn't enough to bring back up UNG.
    • This week's extraction from storage was lower than the 5-year average.
    • EIA still estimates this year's natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors will decline.
    • Next week's EIA report is expected to show another lower-than-normal extraction from storage.