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Lior Cohen  

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  • What Is Next For GLD?
    Nov. 21, 2014 GLD 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The minutes of the FOMC meeting didn’t surprise the markets.
    • GLD is still expected to follow the direction of U.S. dollar.
    • The demand for gold isn’t rising – what does it mean for GLD?
  • Is The Oil Market Loosening?
    Nov. 19, 2014 USO, OIL 2 Comments

    Summary

    • OPEC production slightly declined despite higher Libyan output.
    • Saudi Arabia’s oil production contracted in the past month.
    • Lower liquids fuels consumption in the U.S. is keeping down oil prices.
  • What Could Hold Back Valero Energy?
    Nov. 19, 2014 VLO 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Valero Energy showed higher-than-expected earnings in the third quarter.
    • Higher volumes contributed to the company’s gain in revenue.
    • Lower margins on sour and sweet oils could weigh in on the company’s profit margin.
  • Pan American Silver Didn't Meet Expectations In The Third Quarter
    Nov. 18, 2014 PAAS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Pan American Silver’s LPS for the third quarter came short of market expectations.
    • The company’s drop in revenue was due to lower production and falling precious metals prices.
    • Pan American Silver recorded unfavorable NRV adjustment on inventories of $15.4 million.
  • The Seesaw Motion In UNG Continues
    Nov. 17, 2014 UNG 11 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. natural gas consumption picked up in the residential and commercial sectors.
    • The Contango in the future markets is reducing the roll decay in UNG.
    • The expectations for warmer weather conditions in the East could curb down UNG.
  • Is SLV Expected To Keep Going Up?
    Nov. 16, 2014 SLV 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The changes in U.S. inflation will keep impacting the direction of SLV.
    • The FOMC's upcoming minutes release could shed some light on its next move.
    • The progress in U.S. treasuries yields show another angle about the progress of silver.
  • Is GLD Able To Turn It Around?
    Nov. 14, 2014 GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of GLD bounced back in the past few days.
    • The U.S. dollar is still expected to rally and pressure down GLD.
    • The FOMC policy is expected to turn more hawkish on progress in the labor market and stable inflation.
  • 5 Takeaways From Silver Wheaton's Third Quarter Earnings Report
    Nov. 14, 2014 SLW 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Wheaton didn’t reach its quarterly goals at 20 cents a share.
    • The recent impairment provision should serve as a reminder of the risks the company faces besides falling silver prices.
    • The company’s attributed production declined by 7% but its volume sold rose by 12%.
  • 3 Notes On Silver Wheaton's Upcoming Earnings Report
    Nov. 11, 2014 SLW 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The reaction of Silver Wheaton’s investors to the earnings report isn’t likely to last long.
    • The fall in silver prices could raise the risk related to Silver Wheaton’s partners.
    • The company’s profitability is likely to remain stable but not for long.
  • Will SLV Head Up Anytime Soon?
    Nov. 11, 2014 SLV 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent Non-farm payroll didn’t reach expectations and coincided with the recovery of SLV.
    • The labor market is still doing well to keep pressuring down SLV.
    • The demand for SLV hasn’t diminished despite the weakness in the silver market.
  • Cold Weather Projections Drive UNG Higher
    Nov. 10, 2014 UNG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of UNG jumped again last week.
    • The expectations for cold weather conditions in the East keep driving UNG higher.
    • The injection to storage was well above the normal pace.
  • How Low Can GLD Go?
    Nov. 6, 2014 GLD 24 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of GLD has resumed its downward trend, and is reaching a new low.
    • The progress of the U.S. economy, including the labor market, could keep dragging GLD down.
    • The recovery in long-term treasuries coincided with the fall of GLD, but didn't seem to play a significant role in its downfall.
  • Is Saudi Arabia Dragging Oil To A New Low?
    Nov. 6, 2014 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The fall in U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia has a limited impact on oil prices.
    • The spread between Brent and WTI could keep contracting.
    • Expected lower demand for oil is keeping oil prices low.
  • 3 Takeaways From Chesapeake Energy's Third Quarter Earnings
    Nov. 6, 2014 CHK 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Chesapeake’s production reached its guidance for the third quarter.
    • The company revised up its annual production.
    • The company’s unrealized gains from its oil contracts drove its revenue higher.
  • What To Take From Goldcorp's Earnings Report?
    Nov. 5, 2014 GG 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp’s output slightly increased despite the lower-than-expected production at El Sauzal.
    • Higher all-in sustaining cost slashed its profitability.
    • The company will have to show a sharp rise in production to reach its annual production guidance.
  • 5 Takeaways From Yamana Gold's Earnings Report
    Nov. 5, 2014 AUY 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Yamana releases its third quarter results on October 30th.
    • Yamana decided to slash its dividend payment.
    • The company’s output, net earnings and revenue fell short of expectations.
  • Barrick Gold Recorded Higher Than Expected Earnings Per Share
    Nov. 4, 2014 ABX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick Gold’s revenue for the third quarter rose by 7% sequentially. The adjusted EPS reached $0.19 per share – higher than expected.
    • The company’s revised its outlook for gold and copper production.
    • The current weakness in the gold market has crowded out the impact of the earnings report.
  • Arch Coal Continues To Rally Despite Quarterly Losses
    Nov. 4, 2014 ACI 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Arch Coal’s stock recovered by 16% in the past month.
    • The company’s recent earnings report showed a lower than anticipated EPS.
    • The coal market could heat up in the last quarter of the year.
  • The Recovery Of The United States Natural Gas ETF Continues
    Nov. 3, 2014 UNG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The fall in demand for natural gas didn’t curb down the recovery of UNG.
    • At the natural gas storage is likely to remain lower than normal.
    • The weather outlook for November suggests UNG's rally could slow down.
  • SLV Reaching A New Low
    Nov. 3, 2014 SLV 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent FOMC statement dragged down the price of SLV.
    • Bank of Japan’s decision to expand its asset purchase program pulled up the U.S. dollar against the yen, which also coincided with the decline of SLV.
    • SLV could see further losses if the U.S. economy keeps recovering.
  • Has Silver Wheaton Underperformed Bullion Producers?
    Oct. 31, 2014 SLW 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Wheaton’s stock hasn’t done much worse than Barrick Gold and Goldcorp during the time gold and silver tumbled down.
    • The company’s slow growth in operations this year isn’t far off the slow growth in Pan American Silver.
    • Silver Wheaton has outperformed Goldcorp when we control for the changes in gold and silver.
  • Will Oil Fall Below $80?
    Oct. 30, 2014 USO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price target to $75.
    • The lower demand for oil could keep oil prices at the low $80’s.
    • If oil prices keep falling down, OPEC could slash its quota in December.
  • The FOMC Ends QE3 - GLD Resumes Its Descent
    Oct. 30, 2014 GLD 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The FOMC concluded its meeting and decided to end QE3.
    • The FOMC is turning more hawkish.
    • GLD is likely to suffer in the short term from this turn of events until the timing of the Fed's next rate hike becomes clearer.
  • A Preview To Newmont's Earnings Report
    Oct. 29, 2014 NEM 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Newmont’s output is likely to fall.
    • Lower price of gold could reduce its profitability.
    • Higher all in sustaining cost could also narrow its profit margin.
  • Has Caterpillar Done So Well In The Past Quarter?
    Oct. 29, 2014 CAT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Caterpillar released its third quarter earnings report.
    • The economic slowdown in China could bring back down its revenue in 2015.
    • Lower oil prices and a potential slowdown in U.S. housing market could also impede the progress of Caterpillar.
  • Is Freeport-McMoRan On Its Road To Recovery?
    Oct. 29, 2014 FCX 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan released its third quarter.
    • The company’s revenue fell mostly due to lower production and lower copper, oil and gold prices.
    • What are some of the challenges the company will face?
  • Is SLV A Better Buying Opportunity Over GLD?
    Oct. 27, 2014 SLV 32 Comments

    Summary

    • The demand for SLV didn’t move much despite the weakness in the silver market.
    • SLV has under-performed GLD in the past few weeks.
    • Does this ratio suggest SLV offers a better opportunity than GLD?
    • The FOMC's meeting this week could impact the direction of SLV.
  • Has The Weakness In The Oil Market Fueled The Decline Of UNG?
    Oct. 27, 2014 UNG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Falling oil prices didn’t seem to impact the direction of UNG.
    • The current winter outlook suggests UNG isn’t likely to pick up.
    • High injection pace could further close the gap in the storage from normal levels.
  • Valero Energy Could Impress Its Investors
    Oct. 26, 2014 VLO 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Valero Energy will release its third quarter report on November 4th.
    • The drop in the Brent-WTI spread is likely to bring down its profitability.
    • Lower corn prices could increase Valero’s earnings from ethanol.
  • The Oil Market Continues To Loosen
    Oct. 24, 2014 USO, OIL, UCO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil slightly declined in the past week.
    • The looser U.S. oil market is keeping down oil prices.
    • China’s GDP grew by 7.3% in the past quarter – this won’t be enough to pressure up oil prices.
  • Do The Short Sellers Of Deere Have It Right?
    Oct. 23, 2014 DE 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Deere hasn’t done well in the stock market following the revised downward outlook and analysts’ lower ratings.
    • Low commodities prices and slowdown in Brazil will curb its growth.
    • The short interest in the stock has risen during September. Do the short sellers have it right?
  • The Fed Could Bring The SPDR Gold Trust ETF Back Up
    Oct. 22, 2014 GLD 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The FOMC will convene again next week for its penultimate meeting of the year.
    • James Bullard's recent interview opened the door for QE3 to remain alive.
    • GLD could benefit over the short term if the FOMC keeps QE3.