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Lior Cohen  

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  • GLD Benefits From Uncertainty Around The Fed's Next Move [View article]
    thanks for the correction.
    May 27, 2015. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Benefits From Uncertainty Around The Fed's Next Move [View article]
    The seesaw doesn't help GLD. But once it becomes clearer for the market that a rate hike is underway, GLD is likely to come down.
    May 27, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Valero Energy? [View article]
    From what can see, it seems that it's not only for tax purposes but also for taking on debt and enabling VLO to get more liquidity from its MLP. The drop in revenue is due to low oil prices -- prices go down so both the revenue and costs fall, but the margins are the important part.
    May 8, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UNG Bounces Back - Will It Keep Going Higher? [View article]
    As you said, the plunge in NG prices started back in 2011 and reached the low point in 2012.
    I recently wrote an article on NG and you can see there the price of NG and storage levels from 2010 to date.
    http://bit.ly/1IWBS8q

    Lior
    May 8, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Valero Energy? [View article]
    Thanks jacksalmon , and when it comes to oil there are a lot of unknown unknowns on top of the known unknowns, which make this market so uncertain...
    May 7, 2015. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Valero Energy? [View article]
    Saries: Thank you for your kind words. Lior
    May 7, 2015. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Valero Energy? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I should clear up: I think VLO is a good company and would consider it a "hold". I think it will perform well over the long term, but in the short term it could see lower earnings, which may drive down its price. So assuming oil prices rise, margins narrow and ethanol prices remain low, VLO's stock could decline in the near term.
    But as the next commenter said it's an educated guess.
    May 6, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will USO's Recent Recovery Continue? [View article]
    Hi FlJeepCJ786, yes I will. The latest should come out by Monday. Lior
    Apr 25, 2015. 04:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will USO's Recent Recovery Continue? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    The statements don't contradict each other when you consider the time frame. As I pointed out, over the short run -- no problem, but over longer periods of time, USO will under-perform WTI and could even do much worse (depends how long one holds on to it)...
    You can see here below the analysis I did on this issue
    http://bit.ly/1GT6IfC

    and you can see in the first chart how USO practically didn't do anything for someone who held on to it between Dec 2008 and Dec 2010 -- back when WTI soared.

    The contango could also have an adverse impact on the performance of UWTI as you can see from the fund's own prospectus http://bit.ly/1yXApg1
    pg 27
    Lior

    Apr 23, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Freeport-McMoRan Perform Well In Q1? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. That's a fair point about the correlations. I did examine the moving correlations (30 months) for oil and copper and in fact the correlation of oil picked up (it's around 0.75 for the past 30 months, while copper is "only" 0.32).And as you pointed out, correlations do vary over time. I could do some more fine tuning as you suggested which may provide a better representation, but it won't lead to a much different conclusion about the strong correlation of oil/copper with FCX.
    Lior
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Goldcorp Reach Its Production Goals? [View article]
    It does seem to be the case, that's why I also pointed out GG didn't reach its goals last year.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Goldcorp Reach Its Production Goals? [View article]
    Thanks Angelo. IMHO USD is likely to keep heading up especially if and when the FOMC starts raising rates. If so, gold could actually suffer from a stronger USD.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Gains From Weak Labor Market [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I think the word causation is actually used way too often. I tend to be careful in my language and use the term correlation instead (although I too sometime suggest a cause and effect relation). It's hard to deny a correlation -- a causation is a different story. Not for nothing even when you use a regression and use the usd/yen and NFP shift from expectations to explain the variance of gold percent change, both variables remain significant (10% alpha) and R sqr of 0.4. This isn't an air tight conclusion but not a bad direction to get a better grasp of the market's reaction.
    Apr 6, 2015. 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton's Road Ahead [View article]
    You can see here one more detailed explanation
    http://nyti.ms/yX0UYJ
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Caterpillar Have A Silver Lining? [View article]
    Yup, it could take a long while for this CAT to revive -- definitely not a short term play. But keep in mind that market expectations and all that jazz could drive this stock higher if we were to see commodities prices rally.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
232 Comments
70 Likes