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Lior Cohen

 
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  • The Volatility In The UNG Continues [View article]
    Thanks, much appreciated Mark
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volatility In The UNG Continues [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words and comment.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The iShares Silver Trust ETF About To Change Course? [View article]
    As I said in the past, I don't think it will be a good idea for the Fed to do so. But this is currently what it seems like where we are heading towards.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The iShares Silver Trust ETF About To Change Course? [View article]
    Thanks Stevlg.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volatility In The UNG Continues [View article]
    Always a good point -- agreed. Thanks. That's why I think that weather forecasts should always be taken with more than pinch of salt.
    Dec 16, 2014. 05:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    thanks! much appreciated.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    I used a linear correlation (r of pearson) of the daily percent changes between the two data sets over the past month.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.

    I think at this point we have reached a dialogue of the deaf -- simply because you are into TA and I'm not a big fan of it.

    I will only point out that using MA is a way to smooth the day to day noise -- you are right about that. But it doesn't show all -- including the impact of outliers on prices. My method isn't something I concocted at home, it's a known method to examine the stability of results in statistics. If you take out outliers and come to a different result, this could suggest the conclusion isn't so stable. It's not about the price of $1,150 -- its about examining our conclusions, which were: gold is recovering -- but I think gold's rally was shaky.
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    That's why charts could be a bit deceiving, and so I also look at the daily percent changes -- I suggest you do a simple experiment: take the outliers out (those daily percent changes that are 2 times std positive or negative percent changes) and see if you remain close to the same level the price is now. I did so for Nov-Dec and got the price of gold close to $1,150. Not a plunge from current level but still proves my earlier comment.
    Dec 14, 2014. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    First, they didn't specify when will they raise rates -- you are right about that. But if you look at the September meeting for instance, http://1.usa.gov/1z5K5Ck

    you can see that:
    1. The FOMC members' median federal funds target rate was revised up by 25 basis points compared to the June projections to reach 1.375% by the end of 2015. This suggests, once the FOMC starts raising its cash rate next year, it will be done every meeting or every other meeting.
    2. a total of 14 members think that 2015 will be high time to raise rates.
    So based on the above they suggest there will be a rate hike next year-- since they didn't provide a clear answer this projection might not come true. For now, this is what the market expects.

    Finally, if you look at the bonds markets they price in a rate hike somewhere around mid-2015. Will the market be right? It has gone wrong in the past.
    For now, the FOMC, as you said, didn't provide a clear guidance as to when and in what pace it will start raising rates.
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    I do hope you are right Doug, because I think it won't be a good idea to raise rates next year.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    We can all take a random point in time to make our point (e.g. since Oct 24th to Dec 5th gold fell by 3.3%). I only pointed out that GLD had a modest recovery in the past few days -- that is a fact. Do you wish to say that GLD had a rally earlier -- fine. But the gold market is weak and prices are around $1,200 and were only a few months ago around $1,300. Oil tumbled down and gold didn't in the same manner -- yes, I didn't say otherwise. Only that they have had a strong linear correlation in recent weeks (between the daily percent change and not the trend of course). Does correlation automatically mean causation? -- of course not. I thought this strong relation is something worth pointing out and could suggest the fall in oil prices may not play in favor for bullion.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    Retired Colonel,

    Europe and Japan don't consider raising rates; if anything the ECB plans to keep rates low and perhaps even make additional steps to expand its balance sheet. As for the U.S. the FOMC talked about the situation in Japan, China and Europe but they don't think it will have a strong adverse effect on the U.S. economy. But I agree with you that raising rates next year could have some adverse effects on the U.S. economy down the line. I don't think the Fed should raise rates -- but it seems that the FOMC plans to do so if you look at the statements and minutes...
    Dec 12, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Recovery Of GLD Sustainable? [View article]
    Lejun James ,

    If you look closely, gold's recent rally came from single day jump in prices but for the most part gold has been going down for the past few weeks. But sure gold has recovered in the past few days while oil gone done. The correlation, however is for the past several weeks.
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Points About Silver Wheaton's Performance This Quarter [View article]
    You are right and that's my point, prices have been down for months now and SLW has yet to get its feet wet while FNV and RGLD keep getting new deals...
    Dec 11, 2014. 05:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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147 Comments
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