Seeking Alpha

Lior Cohen

View as an RSS Feed
View Lior Cohen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is Royal Gold's Current Price High? [View article]
    I'm working on the company's valuation so I can't give you, at this point, a number I'm comfortable with, but as David said the expectations for a potential rally in gold prices drove RGLD higher; so even though I can't give a stock price at this point, my guess is well below the current price range.
    Aug 15 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Keep Recovering? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    I think during buildup season the weather a smaller part on the changes in storage and it's more a matter of the changes in the demand in the power and industry sectors vs the supply.
    You make a good point about the potential for speculators, but it doesn't mean prices couldn't slowly come down. In any case, this season is the worse for making sense in the natural gas market, prices move in an unclear trend. So it could take time until prices come down, but I think we should see a slow crawl in prices over the coming weeks. As usual my guess is as good as yours.
    Aug 14 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Keeping Silver Down? [View article]
    There is no clear answer and that's why I didn't provide one. In any case, this lack of reaction to market moves tend to occur once in a while but my guess, as I said in the post, it won't last long.
    Aug 13 03:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Keep Recovering? [View article]
    I don't see the confusion.
    The 5.3% comes from R square, which is what it means - how much the regression explains the variance of Nat gas prices.

    Prices tend to come down as the demand falls and this tends to happen in the past during this season - I know I know past performance no indication...

    You put too much weight on companies' coordination efforts (and ability to do so) on the nat gas buildup.

    Aug 13 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Reach Its Quarterly Goals? [View article]
    Hi Clamdigger Thanks!

    As you well know, silver will keep moving SLW and if silver remains range bound this could curb down SLW's rally in the coming quarters (even though SLW has outperformed silver this year, up to date) .

    Besides this obvious relation with silver, the main issue for me is the lack of new deals. Since the Vale contract back in Feb 2013 SLW didn't enter any new interesting contracts and even that deal may have been a bit overpriced as I suggested in a recent post

    So this year, the attributed production isn't expected to rise from 2013, and the current projects in the pipeline are the only source of growth in volume, which is expected to rise by 33% (in total) over the next four years.

    The other thing to consider is the shift to gold, which could bring down SLW's profit margins as indicated in the current post.

    These two issues: lack of new projects and shift to gold could also impede SLW's progress over the coming quarters.
    Aug 10 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Summer Weather Impact The Natural Gas Market? [View article]
    Thanks for pointing this out. You are right. I made the correction.
    Jul 10 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Summer Weather Impact The Natural Gas Market? [View article]
    y: gap between current injection and 5-year average injection
    x: the U.S mean temperature anomaly
    Jul 8 06:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Fall Below $4 In The Near Future? [View article]
    No, I don't have this figure.
    Jul 2 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Bring Down Silver? [View article]
    Price of silver, not SLV
    Jun 3 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Break Free From Its Current Price Range? [View article]
    I think these two forces play a role in the NG market. More NG producers are steering away from NG and NG is a by-product in many cases. But how these two forces play out in affecting the price of NG is unclear, at least to me. Also, this is only one part of the equation and the expected rise in demand for NG could keep pushing up NG prices.

    You are right, storage might not come up to that bench mark. The last time it was this low, this time of the year, was in 2008. Back then storage was higher at 1,600 and storage rose to only 3,400 by November. But if injections remain higher than normal in the coming weeks, storage could reach close to 3,500.
    May 28 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Break Free From Its Current Price Range? [View article]
    The main problem I have alluded to is the assumption regarding normal distribution. That's why I said this result should be taken with a grain of salt and treated as a rough estimate.
    I don't know of shotgun data.
    The other main assumptions of linear regression are more founded.
    Regarding R sqr of 8% - true. not great result as I have pointed out but also not that bad for a one factor model. Keep in mind, this is model deals with weekly percent changes of NG prices - so a more detailed model with several variables will likely, my guess, get you around 30%-40%.
    May 27 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Market Sentiment Move Silver Prices? [View article]
    Hi Avi,
    It wasn't my intention to bait you. It's just that I don't do TA - not my thing.
    May 27 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Break Free From Its Current Price Range? [View article]
    Hi predictorman1000,
    If heating degrees are lower than normal this suggests less energy will be used to for heating buildings. So both the weather and HDD forecasts are inline with the conclusion of an expected drop in demand for NG in residential/commercial sector.

    Regarding market manipulation has a role in pushing the markets but it's very hard to verify and one wrong turn and you end up in the deep end of nonsense.
    May 27 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Price Of Natural Gas Keep Its Downward Trend? [View article]
    Thanks for pointing this out. First, I have made the correction and the "reported injection" was 105 Bcf, which was 23 Bcf higher than 5-yr average. But the EIA, as Predictor1000 stated, changed the base line of the eastern storage region so in actuality the net injection was only 97 Bcf ( Nonetheless, the injection was still higher than the 5-year average. Moreover, the demand keeps falling and supply slowly rising.
    May 19 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Keep Descending? [View article]
    26/4/13 - injection was 43 Bcf
    27/4/12 - injection was 28 Bcf
    29/4/11 - injection was 72 Bcf
    23/4/10 - injection was 83 Bcf
    24/4/09 - - injection was 82 Bcf
    Average is 61.6

    It could take a longer time for the price of natural gas to fall below $4.5 but as the weather gets hotter, the price is likely to slowly come down. Moreover, the demand for natural gas in the power sector is also expected to further come down, which could also play a role in dragging down the price of natural gas.
    Apr 30 05:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment