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Lior Cohen

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  • Will Silver Break Free From The $20 Price Range? [View article]
    As you said, my guess is as good as yours. My guess, silver will come down to $10 by then. By then the Fed will raise its cash rate, and the US economy should be in a much better condition (unless some a bubble will burst).
    Apr 14 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Break Free From The $20 Price Range? [View article]
    Mymomsays -
    I have referred to these issues you raise in previous posts. Regarding past crashes I can't offer any interesting studies I have read. The Fed's role in the future price of silver could be significant and many bullion bulls believe the crash is a matter of time. I'm a bit more skeptic that there is such a huge bubble even though some developments in the equities and bonds markets could suggest a correction is a matter a timing, which could also affect precious metals.
    Apr 14 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Break Free From The $20 Price Range? [View article]
    I didn't say 0.77 was weak, only that the correlation weakened compared to previous months. Regarding 0.2, it tends to be categorized mid to mid-strong (keep in minds these are the correlations of the daily percent changes not the prices). Regarding significance, it is not significance mainly due to the low sampling but if you were to check for the correlation for 2014, the correlation is sig at 10%. Again, not great but gives a decent correlation.
    Apr 14 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Break Free From The $20 Price Range? [View article]
    I refereed to the weakening of the USD last week.
    Apr 14 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Silver Bottomed Down? [View article]
    Hi Budavar,

    Regarding unemployment: You are more than welcome to look at the Fed's minutes of past meetings and the recent meeting statement and they always refer to the 6.5% threshold. Does this mean that's the "true rate of unemployment"? No. The rate of people who don't work and are in the work force is much higher than 6.7%. This is evident even by less intelligent observers... In one report the number of unemployed is closer to 12.6 million http://1.usa.gov/qKtfTW and not 10.5 million http://1.usa.gov/yN8Mkm. Also the decline in participation rate in recent years suggests the number of people unemployed is even higher. 14%? Perhaps. BUT, there are signs of improvement in the labor market - not enough to consider the worse is over, yet still progress. So why the Fed is clinging on to the 6.5% threshold? I can only speculate. But in any case, the Fed also referred in the past meeting that this 6.5% mark won't determine its policy regarding when it will raise its cash rate. It also seems, based on recent decisions, the Fed will continue to slowly taper QE3 in the coming months.

    In the short run, however, my point was that tapering QE3 will only have a short term adverse effect on the price of silver; over time it won't have a strong negative effect on silver. Because QE3 didn't have a strong positive effect on silver in 2013 to begin with. I have also referred to this issue in previous post here http://bit.ly/1dsx0eo
    Basically, you can see that silver/gold didn't rise during last year, even though the U.S money base grew in 2013. So investors who feared the potential devalue of U.S dollar didn't purchase gold/silver in 2013 as their prices and demand fell. So if the Fed tapers QE3 further, the demand for precious metals won't diminish by much. That's my take on this issue.
    A final note, if the Fed raises the cash rate, you should expect a sharp decline in demand for precious metals.
    Those are my two cents, you make a dollar out of it.
    Lior
    Mar 25 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Natural Gas Market Change Course? [View article]
    Mr Maven,
    U.S's NG imports are mostly from Canada
    http://1.usa.gov/1exsjde
    Jan 29 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Continue To Rally? [View article]
    Hi Mr Blackberryman ,
    Thanks for you comment. As other stated in the comments section below, SLW's stock is strongly linked with silver and gold so where silver goes SLW is likely to follow. My guess is that silver will slowly recover in the near future until the Fed will start to raise its cash rate. The company continues to expand its operations mainly in gold, which is a good sign that should pull up its valuation. But the ongoing decline in its profitability could slightly curb down the company's recovery. So, my guess is that SLW is due for a rally. I can't give you an exact target price because the valuation is very uncertain due to its depends on future prices of gold and silver.
    Jan 22 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Heading Towards $4.5? [View article]
    Mr Arshad,
    I didn't review SEP in the past, so I couldn't tell you. But I think that in most cases the contracts are for the amount of natural gas at market prices; so the contracts don't reduce the exposure to natural gas price shifts. Here is an old article I found on this issue
    http://on.wsj.com/KIH5FS
    Jan 22 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Silver Bounce Back? [View article]
    Ducat,
    Thanks for your comment and kind words. Regarding gold, you can see in the Gold Council's http://bit.ly/tqAlc2
    full report for Q3 (pg 14). It shows that the demand for gold has diminished mainly for investment and Central banks.
    It also shows the supply slightly fell despite the moderate rise in production (pg 16).
    Lior
    Jan 8 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Natural Gas Changing Course? [View article]
    Jimothy,
    Based on the recent updated weather forecasts, the weather is expected to maintain normal to above normal temperatures in most of the US except for parts of the North. In terms of heating degrees they are expected to be slightly higher than normal in the coming days. Keep in mind, I compare to forecast temperatures to normal so it doesn't mean the weather isn't likely to fall, it's just that it won't be much lower than normal for the season. So demand is likely to pick up but as long as the demand isn't well above normal and the storage extraction isn't much higher than normal the price is likely to rise but not by a large scale. In the mean time, there could be big price swings due to delivery delays or just sudden rise in demand as Mr Altendorf showed. Those are my two cents.
    Jan 6 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Recover From Its Recent Fall? [View article]
    It's a typo' it should be 2012, the third quarter of 2012.
    Oct 15 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Gold And Silver's Rally Reach A Halt? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    I agree that the gold market is complex and I have alluded to the fact when I gave some suggestions as for the decline of gold price in the past year. I didn't say QE2 caused the rise of gold price, only that the fear of inflation ,which was partly stemmed from QE2, may have contributed to the rally of gold as a safe haven investment. As I have alluded, however, the rally of gold may have stemmed from other factors such as low interest rates as explained by Krugman
    http://nyti.ms/yX0UYJ
    Sep 11 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Hit $4? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment and correction.
    Sep 6 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Hit $4? [View article]
    Hi Daniel,
    I'm actually referring to heating. I know it's not heating season but the higher consumption in this sector in the past several weeks might suggest an upward trend. This, along with the potential decline in temperatures in the Northeast could lead to a rise in consumption. Granted, it might not be much , and that's why I used cautious wording and put this as a secondary factor in the last section of the article that could pressure up NG prices.
    Sep 4 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton's Rally Last? [View article]
    Haleiwahu,
    That's what I thought and there is a rise in the amount of silver produced and not yet delivered. But the company didn't report it's part of its policy. Regarding costumers, as far as I can tell, the company doesn't specify the list of clients.
    Aug 25 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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