Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Keep Falling? [View article]
Haleiwahu, I'm sure that many PM enthusiasts have different theories as to the reason for the recent decline in PM prices (and I'm no different). From my point of view, there are many factors that account for this fall in prices: the rise in CME margins back in April, the stable U.S inflation, the strength of the USD, the rally of U.S stock market, and the speculations around the Fed cutting its QE3 program - just to name a few. But recall that in the past couple of years PM didn't perform well so more and more people have slowly pulled out of gold and silver and back into equities (including Goldman Sachs). The tipping point may have started after the CME raised cash requirements back in mid-April. Those are my two cents. LC
Hi, I'm glad you asked. I keep saying words such as guess because I'm not clairvoyant nor do I wish to pretend to be one. Despite the detailed analysis, there are always new developments and unexpected turns that could unfold (the know unknowns and the unknown unknowns, if you will) and pull the price of natural gas into unexpected directions. I know this is not a popular view, but I hope my sincerity overcomes my shortcomings.
Gold And Silver Outlook For April 22, 2013 [View article]
Hi tomchiodo622, Nope. They are not the same in this case. Of course there is a strong relation between the changes in GLD's gold holdings and price of gold but they aren't the same. E.g. during December gold price fell by 2.1% while GLD's gold holdings rose by 0.3%. During March 2013 the price of gold rose by 1.1% while the GLD gold holdings fell by 3%. Obviously, if gold won't perform well, the GLD gold holdings are likely to dwindle as more investors will pull out of gold. But the changes in gold holdings in this ETF could serve as an indicator for the changes in demand for gold as an investment. That's the only point I was trying to make with this statement. Lior
Silver rose in the past couple of days but my analysis referred to the decline of silver in recent month, and tries to examine its outlook in the coming weeks and months.
It's hard to make such long term outlook. I will only point out that if the demand for silver as an investment will drop the price is likely to follow irregardless of the supply. As a side note, the production remains robust (see here http://on.doi.gov/105sMSt).
Gold And Silver Outlook For February 25, 2013 [View article]
The gold market has started off the week on a positive note perhaps as a correction to last week's tumble. But my guess is that gold will keep falling as the week will progress.
Will Natural Gas Resume Its Downward Trend? [View article]
Hi Mr. CarefulStudy ,
I appreciate your critic. I do research before commenting on the weather. At the time I wrote this article the weather forecast was for light snow in certain areas. This I took from the weather channel (I have also linked my comments in the article to the site). Moreover, the two week projection was also based on an article from Dec 19 (again linked above). If there was a change in the weather/forecast than I will update my projection accordingly. In regards to you question the answer is NO I have no position in NG/UNG or any other natural gas related asset. I only analyze the NG market based on the facts I see, and if you will examine my previous articles you can see that I will be the first to change my guess of the future direction for natural gas based on the facts I know at the time of writing the article.
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Rally? [View article]
Hi haleiwahu, The chart above is for 2012. I have also checked for 2011, and there was also a drop in the linear correlation between silver and SLW around the end of the quarter in most of the quarters (except during the first few months of 2011). So it might not be just a recent trend. Regarding your next question, I don't have a good answer. My guess, it seems the price of silver will remain high in the near future despite the strengthening of the USD in recent weeks. Lior
Gold And Silver Outlook For November 5, 2012 [View article]
It's not only the USD. You can notice that in the past couple of days alone the price of gold rose while the USD didn't move much against other currencies. In regards to gold, it also depends on other factors such as the low long term interest rates, assuming you buy the whole Hotelling rule as the main reason for the rise in the price of gold in recent years (Krugman explains this issue here http://alturl.com/9963z ). Assuming this theory is correct (I think it has some validity but didn't buy it completely) then if the LT interest rates will rise, this could pull back the price of gold.
Gold And Silver Outlook For November 5, 2012 [View article]
Thanks Zenith. There isn't a clear cut answer for this question. In my opinion the USD is still the main factor that will affect gold, but gold could rise even if USD strengthens. During 2012 the price of gold rose by nearly 5% while the USD strengthened against several major currencies (Euro, Yen, Aussie dollar) so it is possible for gold to rise despite the slow recovery of the USD. But I still think that over time it will be hard for gold to substantially rise without the USD weakening against major currencies.
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Recover? [View article]
Hi bullfeathers,
I have used September 14th in order to show that following the FOMC decision, which became public on September 13th, the price of silver remained nearly flat. Thus showing there was an anticlimax following the announcement of QE3.
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Keep Falling? [View article]
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Keep Falling? [View article]
I'm sure that many PM enthusiasts have different theories as to the reason for the recent decline in PM prices (and I'm no different). From my point of view, there are many factors that account for this fall in prices: the rise in CME margins back in April, the stable U.S inflation, the strength of the USD, the rally of U.S stock market, and the speculations around the Fed cutting its QE3 program - just to name a few. But recall that in the past couple of years PM didn't perform well so more and more people have slowly pulled out of gold and silver and back into equities (including Goldman Sachs). The tipping point may have started after the CME raised cash requirements back in mid-April.
Those are my two cents.
LC
Will Natural Gas Continue To Fall? [View article]
I'm glad you asked. I keep saying words such as guess because I'm not clairvoyant nor do I wish to pretend to be one. Despite the detailed analysis, there are always new developments and unexpected turns that could unfold (the know unknowns and the unknown unknowns, if you will) and pull the price of natural gas into unexpected directions. I know this is not a popular view, but I hope my sincerity overcomes my shortcomings.
Gold And Silver Outlook For April 22, 2013 [View article]
Nope. They are not the same in this case. Of course there is a strong relation between the changes in GLD's gold holdings and price of gold but they aren't the same. E.g. during December gold price fell by 2.1% while GLD's gold holdings rose by 0.3%. During March 2013 the price of gold rose by 1.1% while the GLD gold holdings fell by 3%. Obviously, if gold won't perform well, the GLD gold holdings are likely to dwindle as more investors will pull out of gold. But the changes in gold holdings in this ETF could serve as an indicator for the changes in demand for gold as an investment. That's the only point I was trying to make with this statement.
Lior
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Bounce Back? [View article]
Will Silver Decline Further? [View article]
Will Silver Decline Further? [View article]
Gold And Silver Outlook For February 25, 2013 [View article]
Will Natural Gas Resume Its Downward Trend? [View article]
I appreciate your critic. I do research before commenting on the weather. At the time I wrote this article the weather forecast was for light snow in certain areas. This I took from the weather channel (I have also linked my comments in the article to the site). Moreover, the two week projection was also based on an article from Dec 19 (again linked above). If there was a change in the weather/forecast than I will update my projection accordingly.
In regards to you question the answer is NO I have no position in NG/UNG or any other natural gas related asset. I only analyze the NG market based on the facts I see, and if you will examine my previous articles you can see that I will be the first to change my guess of the future direction for natural gas based on the facts I know at the time of writing the article.
Hope I have cleared things up for you.
Lior
Gold And Silver Outlook For December 17, 2012 [View article]
Will Natural Gas Change Direction And Fall? [View article]
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Rally? [View article]
The chart above is for 2012. I have also checked for 2011, and there was also a drop in the linear correlation between silver and SLW around the end of the quarter in most of the quarters (except during the first few months of 2011). So it might not be just a recent trend.
Regarding your next question, I don't have a good answer. My guess, it seems the price of silver will remain high in the near future despite the strengthening of the USD in recent weeks.
Lior
Gold And Silver Outlook For November 5, 2012 [View article]
Gold And Silver Outlook For November 5, 2012 [View article]
Will Silver And Silver Wheaton Recover? [View article]
I have used September 14th in order to show that following the FOMC decision, which became public on September 13th, the price of silver remained nearly flat. Thus showing there was an anticlimax following the announcement of QE3.