Seeking Alpha

Lior Cohen's  Instablog

Lior Cohen
  • on Gold & Precious Metals
Send Message
Hi I'm Lior, an MA graduate in Economics. I have worked for several years in a variety of economic related positions, and in 2010 I started my own blog – Trading NRG, which is a news and analysis blog about gold, silver, natural gas and oil.
My company:
Gold & Silver Monthly Outlook
My blog:
Trading NRG
View Lior Cohen's Instablogs on:
  • Gold and silver outlook for July 2011

    Gold and silver showed weakness during June as they did during the previous month of May. Could it be that the appeal of gold and silver as a safe heaven was less true in recent months than it was in recent years? What is up ahead for gold and silver prices in July 2011? Let's examine the precious metals market for June and try and provide an outlook for gold and silver for July 2011.

    For the complete Gold and silver price July outlook see here.

     
    Gold and silver June 2011

     During June, silver fell sharply in three pulses at the beginning of the month (June 2nd); at the middle of the month
    (June 10-14); at the end of the month (June 22-27). On the other hand, gold changed very moderately during most of June and had a sharp decline only near the end of the month (June 22-24).

     By the end of the month, the two precious metals fell in June by 2.2% for gold and 9.1% for silver.

     The chart below shows the changes in gold and silver during June, in which the prices were normalized to 100 on May 31st 2011. 


    The sharper decline in silver compared with gold during most of June was demonstrated in the rise of the ratio of gold to silver during June;  the chart below shows that there was an upward trend in the gold to silver ratio during most of June as gold outperformed silver. 

    When breaking the month of June into two parts, one can see that during the first half of June silver fell very sharply by 5.7%, while gold declined by only 0.9%; at the second half of the month, the tables have turned and gold fell by a higher rate of 1.8% (than in the first half of June), while silver declined by only 2%.

     

    Notice that during the first half of June, the USD had strengthened against major currencies, which might explain the drop in gold and silver during the first half of June; during the second half of June the US dollar weakened, yet gold and silver kept on falling. Let's examine the key factors that might have affected gold and silver in June.  

    For the complete Gold and silver price July outlook see here.


     


     

    Tags: GOLD
    Jul 05 10:38 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Oil fell sharply during week - Weekly recap 13-17 June
     Oil prices had a very sharp fall during the week as the Euros to US dollar exchange rate also fell due to the concerns over the Greek debt. There is still high uncertainty over the crude oil supply and whether Saudi Arabia will raise its oil production quota despite the disagreement in the recent OPEC meeting (after all during May Saudi Arabia didn't raise its oil production). There are mixed views on the expected growth in oil demand for the rest of 2011: the IEA raised its projection of crude oil demand in 2011, but the recent slow down in US, Europe and China's economies may adversely affect their demand for crude oil.   

     All these concerns will continue to affect the oil prices and will determined the future changes in crude oil prices.

     Let review the changes during last week (June 13th to 17th) of crude oil prices (Brent oil and WTI), and present a summary of the recent EIA petroleum report:

     Oil prices – highlights

    WTI oil declined during last week by 4.31%; its weekly average price also decreased by 4.18% as it reached $95.87 per barrel, compared with last week's $100.05 /b. The average daily percent change of oil price (WTI) was -1.27%.

     NYMEX Futures Price (July delivery) also dropped by 4.41% during the week, and reached $93.01/b on Friday, June 17th.

     Brent price also shed 5.81% from beginning to end, and its average price decreased by 1.13% compared with previous week's average.

     The difference between the Brent and WTI prices rose sharply and averaged at $20.52 as it finished the week at $20.48.

     These findings suggest that despite the drop in oil prices, there might be a tighter oil market in Europe than in U.S. which could interpret the widening of the gap between Brent and WTI.

     for the rest of the review see here: 
    Oil fell sharply during week - Weekly recap 13-17 June
     

     

    Tags: OIL
    Jun 19 10:43 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Gold & silver finished the week with rises – weekly recap 13-17 June

    Gold and silver started off the week with sharp falls, but they have soon bounced back during the week; by the end of the week they have finished the week with moderate rises. The high uncertainty in the financial markets including the concerns in Europe over the Greek debt, the slowdown in the US economy and Chinese economy is keeping gold and silver prices high.

     

    Here is a short review of the changes in gold and silver prices during the week of June 13th to 17th 2011:   

     Precious Metals Prices weekly summary:  

    Gold increased by 1.55% during the week; gold's average price during the week was $1,527 /t. oz which is 0.86% below the previous week's average price of $1,540 /t. oz.

     

    Silver also inclined by 2.91% from beginning to end, and this week's average price was $35.37/t oz or 3.98% below the previous week's average $36.84/t oz.


    During the week, the average daily percent change of gold rose by   0.13%; silver declined on a daily scale by an average of 0.30%.

     In the chart below are the silver and gold that were normalized to 100 to the price at the beginning of the week – June 13th. It presents the trend of these precious metals prices.


    The chart presents gold and silver inclined during the week as they demonstrated an upward trend.


    The last chart is of the daily percent changes of silver and gold during last week (i.e. the changes around the trend). The chart shows that silver started off with sharp falls at the beginning of the week; gold also fell on Monday, but afterwards both precious metals inclined during the rest of the week.

     

    For further reading:

    Gold and silver prices outlook for June 2011

    Tags: GOLD
    Jun 19 10:34 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.