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Lipa Roitman

 
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  • Wheat Price Forecast: Predicting Food Commodities Price Rise [View article]
    @Mark Anthony
    Thank you for your comment.
    Every point on these charts is taken from the actual forecasts made before each market day over the last year. At the end of May the system started giving strong up signals that continued through June way before the wheat prices started climbing.
    Aug 18 02:59 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Picking By Algorithms [View article]
    Hello Paulo,
    Thank you for your comment,

    1. Recent forecast: Please read my previous article.This article
    includes some updated predictions:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    2. The stocks in the forecast table are daily pre-screened out of the
    larger pool of stocks. We blanked all the tickers, except for the top
    five because we recommend acting on the strongest signals only.

    3. Regarding past performance: the predictability, a number accompanying every prediction, is telling how well this predictor worked in the past.

    4. More about the predictability:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    6. More about the system that I should have included in the article:
    The system is self learning and adaptable, which sets it apart from
    the technical analysis.

    Thanks again
    Lipa Roitman
    Oct 30 06:23 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    To untrusting investor,
    This is best used by professional investors who know how to combine our forecasts with the risk management strategy. You need patience and the ability to look at the whole picture, all time horizons, not just the short term forecast. I already mentioned that the long term forecast is more reliable. Get acquainted with the stock that pops to the top or bottom of the table. Look at the whole prediction table. Does this stock usually move along with the whole market or against? If it does, does the S&P point in the same direction? Does the predominance of the stocks in the table point in the same direction?
    Is this stock prediction confirmed by other similar stocks in the
    table? It does not hurt to look at the fundamentals. The more you
    know about the stock, the better decision you’ll make. You can make a
    checklist with these questions and then decide. Ultimately, it's your decision and your money at risk. There are some more instructions that we give to our customers.
    Jul 2 05:03 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    To outcastsearcher,
    Sir,
    Let me answer your question by asking you back:
    Why don't you build your own car?
    Why don't you grow your own food?
    Why don't you build your own trading system?

    Maybe because you don't have the right knowledge, and you prefer to
    buy your car from other people who spent years researching how to
    build a better car?, or
    you prefer to buy food from people who know how to grow food efficiently,
    or prefer to rely on the knowledge of people who spent years
    researching the market dynamics?
    Jul 1 03:26 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Picking By Algorithms [View article]
    TTurk,
    Thank you for your comment.
    This article is about making better decisions, not mathematical certainty. If you are looking for certainty, better stay away from the stock market. As Albert Einstein stated that 'as far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
    Good day.
    Oct 29 09:04 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    @Robert Keyfitz,
    Not all stocks behave predictably. The stocks in our system were selected over a several years period and the process still continues. However the basic set is fairly stable.
    What we see that the market behaves predictably most of the time. At some points, usually at some big news events, or big "tops" or "bottoms", it can't decide where to go next, then the predictability goes down. I use the terms "top" or "bottom" figuratively, since you can only call "top" or "bottom" after the fact.
    Jul 9 04:36 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    @uptickusa
    You are correct that when panic (=market uncertainty) sets off the predictability goes down. The trick is to detect that in time, and that can be done in our model by monitoring the predictability and the signal strength. And the psychology is also a big factor. I heard of one big market player that got out in time before the October 1987 crush. However, he was so shaken by the events that he failed to get back into the market in time, and lost most of the gains he could have had.
    Jul 9 04:08 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Picking By Algorithms [View article]
    DanielHolzman

    Thank you for your comment,

    Please understand that we can’t spill all our secrets in public. I have worked on this project 18 years now, five of them full time. You can find some answers in my previous publications:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The system is self learning and adaptable, which sets it apart from the technical analysis.

    The system learns the laws of the market, such as “when A goes down, then B should go up, but if both A and C go down then B should go the other direction.” As you can see, the effect of A and C on B is non-linear and can get complicated.

    However fickle these relationships may be, they are real, and when many of them are taken together, and proven to work over large set of historical data, they have real predicting power. Of course, you need a powerful computer system working around the clock to discover these laws.

    Limitations: the system does not work on all stocks, only on these that answer certain criteria. Only the strongest signals should be acted upon, those that break through the noise filters.

    Thanks again,
    Lipa Roitman
    Oct 30 07:02 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wheat Price Forecast: Predicting Food Commodities Price Rise [View article]
    @JackTuir,
    Thank you for your kind comment.
    We recalculate predictability daily. At the moment the best ones on average are soy oil and general agribusiness (MOO).
    Aug 18 06:22 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    @Robert Keyfitz,
    The tables for Disney and DAX index were created from our prediction archives from data available at each point in time, similar to what you are suggesting. However, to start our model in 2002 and run it forward per your suggestion does not prove anything, since our today's model has already learned all that has happened since 2002. .
    Jul 9 05:03 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    @slayerwulfe,
    Predictability is the measure of how the model predicted in the past. Example: Three days predictability compares the three days ahead prediction with what actually happened after three days. That is the correlation coefficient, which is measured for up to 15 years of history of the stock. Of course, there is no guarantee it'll work the same three days into the future, but that's the best we can do.
    Jul 4 04:03 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    To untrusting investor,
    Thank you for your comments.
    Stock market is not an easy game. It can humble the wisest of us.
    Trading on fundamentals is not easy either. You only know the past performance (if the company books are correct, which is also an assumption). The future performance is anybody's guess. They call it "projection", but it's a guess still. Then there is a short term price volatility. If you have bought on just fundamentals, you might be 20% down in short term, you'll have a lot of waiting to do just to get even.
    The best approach is to combine both.
    Jul 4 05:13 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    Lois,
    The milliseconds trading (HFT- high frequency trading) is a different
    game from the regular investing and trading. In HFT they try to sense where the big orders are in the books (outside of the current price level), and they try to get ahead of the orders, which amounts to scalping. They don't really plan to be invested at the end of the day. They use computers in a different way from ours. The HFT advocates claim they provide liquidity, although this is questionable in view of the flash crashes that they can cause.

    This is different from what we are doing, the price forecasting days or weeks into the future. What we show here is a prove that the HFT does not affect the market in the long term, and the market movements in the form of the waves can be predicted far ahead.
    Jul 1 06:30 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wheat Price Forecast: Predicting Food Commodities Price Rise [View article]
    @Tim777
    Thank you for your comment.
    About the gold. Will it go up and down, or down and up?
    I'll have to wait what the system tells me tomorrow...
    Aug 18 06:30 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable [View article]
    @Advill,
    You are correct it's a big world out there, with supercomputers and billions in capital, and the (possibly orchestrated) news stream. What I was trying to prove here that it is still possible to predict the markets a few days or months into the future.Forget the day trading! No human trader can consistently beat the supercomputers at that game. The trick is to get on the longer wave before the crowd and exit in the right time! Of course, that requires some guts to go against the news drumbeat.

    About our stocks selection: We don't know a priori which stocks are predictable. Our algorithm selects the most predictable stocks from what we present to it. It took several years of such selection to arrive to our current list, and it is still an ongoing process.
    Jul 16 08:59 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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