Liron Manor

Long only, deep value, special situations, hedge fund manager
Liron Manor
Long only, deep value, special situations, hedge fund manager
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Ovis Capital
Dear Gnart,
Thank you for the information. There's a limit to what one can learn from the financial reports and I would love to hear more from a company's 30-year veteran.
Would you be interested in contacting me through my email
Thanks again,
Q-I, thank you for the kind words.
Thank you for your kind note. I used Wardsauto (
Alpine Analytics, that's a very kind note, thank you!
I agree Billy. In fact you said it in early January.
Company going private for 2.75$ ps.
Seems way too cheap:
+ 2.6$ ps in BV, mostly cash and investments
+ 0.5$ ps in tax assets
+ Huge synergies. Eliminating management, trading operations & research teams (the latter two to be merged with Aberdeen Asset Management, the acquirer).
This means that Aberdeen is getting *paid* 0.35$ ps + synergies to take on $14B of AUM.
As the deal was structured so that there is 45% insiders' support, the door is closed for additional offers (let me say just put a disclaimer here that the full sale contract is not out yet and all the info is from a press release).
I think that the company is worth much more, but I'll take the 15% in the two months since the story posted and deploy them elsewhere.
Good luck everyone!
Alpine, thanks for sharing your thought process.
Regarding the $5M of pretax income, if you remove all the one time items from the latest Q, you'll get to just over $1.2M. One might argue that the Q started with a larger AUM than it ended with and so what we're seeing does not represent normalized earnings, but here I would argue that not all of the company's efficiency improvements kicked in, so they can balance each other.

If you ask me, I don't think that the Equity AUM will stabilize, but I don't think it needs to be for the investment to work. In fact, I'm assuming that it will be eroded to zero over the next 12 months.
Hi Robin, thanks for your inputs. The bond biz is a (slowly) growing $55M earnings biz, which require less expenses than a similar equity fund, so I'm sure it has some value for someone.
Guys, at the end of the day they are running $16B of OPM and $11B out of that is sticky. I don't think you have to be a genius to make money out of it, you just need to adjust your expenses to your income.
Hi Ralph, thank you for your comment.
Please notice I assumed Europe losses of 0.44B per *quarter* while management estimated Europe losses of 1B for the entire year. I try to be conservative, so I took an overshoot here.
I agree with the rest of your statements.