Seeking Alpha

Locked Down Investments

View as an RSS Feed
View Locked Down Investments' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Update: Tesla Earnings - The Positives Outweigh The Negatives [View article]
    Are you serious TFTF?? After all this time you really still don't get it eh?
    Man there really is no hope for you buddy.
    Demolishing each and every one of your points (for the 100th time at least):
    1. Model S/X weighs similarly to other high end sedans and SUV's (you cannot force people onto a pedal bike or into a bus/train) Tesla is giving them what they want...and as you well know even if 100% coal powered an EV is still 50% cleaner than a comparable ICE vehicle and has the POTENTIAL to be 100% zero emission (which we can never ever say about any ICE vehicle...ever).

    2. How does a few thousand EV's/year make a difference? Well actually it's TENS of thousands of EV's/year that Tesla is producing now. A few years ago it was thousands/year and a few years before that it was only hundreds/year.
    See the trend?
    You have to start somewhere. By end of next year we will cross into the HUNDREDS of thousands per year for Tesla. Year after that I imagine EV sales will cross 1 million/year for all automakers combined.

    After that EV sales go exponential with Model III/gigafactory and all the other automakers EV efforts...and we really DO start to make a difference. All because pioneers like Musk got the ball rolling with the Roadster back in 2008. You can thank him later when you are driving your own Tesla in a few years (if you haven't lost all your money shorting the best company in the exponentially growing EV market).

    3. How can Musk speed up the Model III and battery plant any faster than he is going? You do recall the Tesla plan right?
    Sell high end low volume to prove your concept (Roadster 2008-2011), sell mid/high end in medium volume to prove you can scale up and satisfy increasing demand (Model S 2012-present), finally sell medium price/ high volume to the masses once they know what you can offer (Model III 2017-?)

    Two years from now maybe you will finally see the light. Guess I can't help ya till then bud. God knows I tried enough.
    Nov 7, 2014. 03:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Earnings - The Positives Outweigh The Negatives [View article]
    I think Tesla can sell a lot more of S/X than you think Dave.
    Porsche will sell nearly 200k vehicles this year.
    This is Porsche alone so not including all the high end BMW, Mercs, Audi's, Maserati, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lotus, etc, etc that all compete at the high end with Model S/X.
    If you think about where the supercharging network will be by 2017/18 and increased performance upgrades to S/X that will occur by then it is easy to see that if the above premium automakers haven't gone 100% electric by then they will be toast.
    Nobody will want a dinosaur ICE at that point and Tesla will eat up all of their sales.
    Standing by my prediction above for over 200k combined sales of Model S/X by 2018.
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Earnings - The Positives Outweigh The Negatives [View article]
    Pilot plant in place and producing cells late 2016. Pilot plant will still be the biggest lithium ion plant in the world. Probably capable of producing enough cells for 200,000 EV's/year by mid 2017.
    Enough for 500,000 EV's/year and full capacity from the gigafactory by 2020 as already stated.
    I believe Panasonic will continue to provide the cells for the S and X with gigafactory producing only for Model III and energy storage units for SolarCity.

    Best guess:
    50k Model S in 2015
    20k Model X in 2015

    75k Model S in 2016
    40k Model X in 2016

    100k Model S in 2017
    75k Model x in 2017
    25k Model III in 2017

    125k Model S in 2018
    100k Model X in 2018
    200k Model III in 2018.

    150k Model S in 2019
    125k Model X in 2019
    350k Model III in 2019
    25k Model R (new Roadster 0-60mph 2.2 seconds)

    175k Model S in 2020
    150k Model X in 2020
    50k Model R in 2020
    425k Model III in 2020
    25k Model P (new Pickup truck - more torque than any other pickup in the world)
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    Hi Paulo,
    Seriously Porsche should have a car out in four years and Mercedes in *gasp* 7 years!?!
    Wow Tesla must be shaking in their boots.
    This is pathetic from big auto.
    Tesla won't be able to sell enough cars for a long time to come if this is their response.
    Big auto needs to start building battery giga factories NOW if they want to catch Tesla.
    If they don't their precious economies of scale in the ICE business won't mean jack diddly come 2017/18.
    I really can't believe big auto doesn't see the writing on the wall yet. If BMW, Merc, Porsche, Ferrari and anyone trying to sell $60k+ cars doesn't change pronto they are DEAD.
    Come 2017 the rest of big auto has maybe five years to go fully electric or they are dead too.
    Invest in battery materials now folks...don't say I didn't warn ya.
    All it will take is one major auto manufactuer to say they are building a battery giga factory as well and it will be lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel and copper all the way baby.
    Nov 5, 2014. 04:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    Umm solucky actually I see ads for Maserati, Porsche, and high end BMW/Audi's all the time on TV during golf tournaments, Formula1 races, tennis tournaments, and in magazines that cater to the upper middle class. Your point???
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Telling The Truth? Elon Musk Or Wards Auto? [View article]
    I imagine the profitability per car has gone up quite a bit since the factory upgrades which will allow them to produce at least 1,000 vehicles per week by the end of the year. Tesla is probably passing on some of these savings to help sell more cars. I imagine they will continue to do this as their efficiencies/ economies of scale improve across the board.

    For instance think about how the gigafactory will reduce cell costs for Model S and may be that you will be able to buy a base Model S 60kWh for just over $50k (including tax credits) in 2017/18.
    Either way Tesla will have the option of increasing profit margins on Model S/X or passing those savings on to make their premium line more affordable.
    Nov 1, 2014. 08:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is Telling The Truth? Elon Musk Or Wards Auto? [View article]
    On and on the bulls and bears fight about Tesla demand issues. For me it is clear. If Tesla isn't deploying conventional advertising (paying for TV ads, magazine ads, newspaper ads, etc) then there is NO DEMAND ISSUE.
    You think if they really had demand issues they wouldn't be hitting the mass media with all the accolades they have received, the benefits of EV over ICE, the safest vehicle ever tested, fastest full sized sedan EVER, near zero maintenance, ect, etc, etc?
    They don't advertise because they don't need to...period.
    Similarly once I see conventional advertising from Tesla I won't change my story and try to defend the company. I will fully admit they are attempting to stoke demand at that point.
    Personally I don't think we will see conventional advertising until they try to sell Model III in the hundreds of thousands per year. However at that point the FREE supercharging network will be so dense and people's understanding of EV's that much broader. If they an make that car for under $40k I predict it will easily be the hottest selling car in the they may not need advertising then either.
    p.s. Tesla customers have been making their OWN ads for the company. Think about how powerful an endorsement that is?
    Keep in mind these are not handy cam crappy ads done in 5 minutes but look like full production ads you would see on television.
    Highly skilled people spent days and weeks on these.
    Again think about how powerful an endorsement that is.
    Oct 31, 2014. 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: How About A Squeeze? [View article]
    Tesla float was near 30% short back in March 2013 as well. Look what happened since then. I imagine SolarCity will play out the same way but it just may take people a bit longer to connect the dots in terms of the SolarCity+Tesla combination.
    Remember SolarCity is the preferred installer of charging equipment and solar panels for ALL Tesla customers...when Model III comes out Tesla's customer base gets a whole lot bigger! 3-4 years these two will be major players and everyone will finally "get it".
    Don't bet against Musk...he is building an EV+solar empire...Tesla will not stop at cars...they will be making electric boats, motorcycles, planes, etc.
    Gotta have the batteries to do it....Gigafactory #1 is just the start.
    Oct 29, 2014. 06:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: How About A Squeeze? [View article]
    SolarCity has the best installation team in the business. They can install the same sized system twice as fast as anyone else. They are also the largest single buyer of solar panels in the USA (and possibly the world). They therefore get the best price from panel manufacturers.
    Combine this with their association with Elon Musk (chairman and largest shareholder) and thus Tesla's battery gigafactory and I think you have a pretty good idea of where SolarCity is heading in the future.
    Solar panels + lowest cost battery backup + EV = the home of the future.
    In just over three years SolarCity and Tesla (with the Model III) will be sitting at multiples of their current values. SolarCity has more upside than Tesla in my opinion...there is a lot of rooftop out there!
    Oct 27, 2014. 02:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: It's Time To Impress [View article]
    Tesla HAS to spend money to expand and survive. They can't spend $5 billion on a gigafactory without spending billions more on tooling up the Freemont plant to be able to produce 200,000 Model III's by 2018 and
    500,000 vehicles by 2020.
    They also have to continue to spend on superchargers, service centres, and stores...more dense the network the more people will by Tesla vehicles (especially important for Model III).
    Giga factory after gigafactory will have to be built, along with vehicle factories in Europe and Asia.

    This company will be spending, spending, spending for the next ten years at least...I wouldn't expect to see much profit for a long time...but the value of the beast will continue to grow and grow as Tesla gobbles up market share. EV is the only way forward. Nobody will debate this if the Model III can be sold at the stated $35k
    Oct 15, 2014. 06:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    Please lostinthemarket....Tesla doesn't spend anything near the amount big auto spends on advertising...they use social media to generate buzz and the mass media does the rest for Musk's tweet about "the D" cost them nothing but got coverage in every major news organization on the planet...that's advertising in the 21st century.
    Again when I see a Tesla ad on TV or in a magazine/newspaper, etc then I will admit Tesla might be trying to stoke demand...till then...keep dreaming bears.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article] really are lost aren't you?
    Take a look at the number of vehicle sales over $75k worldwide and tell me how exactly Tesla is going to struggle selling 35,000 this year...or 100,000 Model S and X by 2016...yeah thanks..go do some real research bud.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    Umm no you would have to be moronic to think that a car that sells for $75k+ is going to be the best selling car in the world...not sure why you brought it up? But hey grab at some more straws.
    You're the doubting Thomas here so you go find out Tesla's market share amongst other $75k+ autos...all I can say for sure is that their market share is about to get a lot bigger with the D.
    Oct 12, 2014. 03:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    Wrong can have it both ways.
    Tesla's medium term goal is to be like BMW (who by the way sold nearly 2 million vehicles last year).
    BMW has high end offerings (5, 6, 7 series vehicles) and more mainstream models (1, 2, 3, 4 series vehicles).
    Tesla has started on the high end because clearly that is where EV's offer the best bang for the buck verses the high end ICE competition.
    Prove that point...get people to accept this...get the rich to buy your vehicles and fund the production/economies of scale buildout for the more affordable offerings (Model III).
    It's pretty simple really.
    3.2 secs means A LOT to people prepared to spend $75k+ on a car. This is Tesla's market for the Model S and X. Hello?
    Musk has always said 2017/18 for Model III...and the gigafactory is being built as we speak (please provide evidence if you know that work has stopped in Nevada - all my sources says work has picked up dramatically since the deal was signed with the Nevada legislature)
    Oct 11, 2014. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    I think you are right Santos. Big auto will need to get in on the big battery game if they are to keep up in the acceleration game.
    This is why I sold my Tesla shares and am now hunting for value in the battery materials sector. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, etc.

    I wrote an article about what big auto needs to do to catch up.
    I imagine that as soon as we hear about big auto building their own battery "giga factories" the battery materials sector will catch on fire.
    Oct 11, 2014. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment