Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Locked Down Investments  

View Locked Down Investments' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is Elon Musk Giving Up On Battery Swaps? [View article]
    You guys don't have to wait that long really. If Tesla can't produce the Model III vehicle for under $40k with a 200 mile range by 2018 then a lot of air will come out of the stock.
    That said I still think Tesla can stay at the high end of the market (Porsche competitor with Model S and X) and still be an extremely profitable car company producing around 200-250k vehicles per year.
    They could also put out a Bugatti beating (0-60mph) 2 seater sportscar (new roadster) with lots of Carbon fibre and nearly 1000 hp.
    They could sell this car at less than a quarter of the price of a Bugatti and still make big profits. Due to a smaller lighter carbon fibre chassis and better batteries via the gigafactory I imagine the range could get close to 500 miles per charge if driven sensibly (given that the Roadster upgrade coming soon is to improve its range to around 400 miles).

    Given that the gigafactory is to be built in stages if they realize they can't make the Model III for under $39k by end of 2016 they can still choose to only make the gigafactory half of its original intended size and won't be stuck with a massively oversized battery factory even if the worst happens.

    When the CEO of VW bought Porsche a few years back he said he put its value at around $20 billion. I would say Tesla is the Porsche of the EV world now and should be worth a similar value (which at $25 billion currently isn't far off really). I feel Tesla is better positioned than Porsche currently for the future of transport which is almost certainly going to be 100% electric. Unlike Porsche who will be forced to spend billions in the transition to EV, Tesla is already there and is the one to beat in this space.
    Mar 20, 2015. 08:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Elon Musk Giving Up On Battery Swaps? [View article]
    Well said Cecil.
    Tesla can see how busy each supercharging station is.
    They are building battery swap stations only at the most trafficked supercharging stations as there may actually be enough people in those areas willing to pay the extra amount in order to be in and out in 3 minutes.
    It is a smart strategy from a smart company.
    Get over it shorts.
    Mar 20, 2015. 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    So Mercedes is essentially giving you not much more than a plug in Prius with a tiny EV range and charging you $40k+ for it.
    The Model III will trounce this pathetic offering and will have virtually unlimited FREE EV range thanks to a supercharging network that by 2017 will cover 98% of the developed world.
    Thanks for playing.
    Mar 20, 2015. 06:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    I hope BYD becomes the Tesla and SolarCity of the Asian world. Tesla and SolarCity have enough to do in taking over the Western world already. There is plenty of business for everyone.
    BYD has all the tools necessary to do this and they should. Unlike Tesla and SolarCity (which are still technically separate companies - although Elon Musk is the largest single shareholder in both) BYD is a single company that make vehicles (ICE and EV), makes huge amounts of batteries (mostly for cell phones), and makes solar panels.
    They have all the expertise to copy Tesla and SolarCity in every respect.
    They could roll out superchargers across Asia a la Tesla and thanks to horrible pollution levels in China the government will continue to provide generous incentives (typically about $10,000 USD per vehicle).
    If BYD makes similar investments in battery supply there is no reason they can't also make an affordable long range EV capable of supercharging.

    BYD shareholders would be rewarded massively if they chose this approach. Just getting the nickname "Tesla of the East" would be good for a stock double overnight.
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The Plug On Tesla [View article]
    I love people who think they can predict the price of oil (or anything in the market) for if they really could they would bet all their money and be right everytime and be the richest person on earth in short order.
    How many people exactly were predicting back in May/June 2014 that oil would fall to nearly $40/barrel by the end of the year? Not a whole lot I can tell you! Maybe a handful who were laughed at.

    It has already bounced back to $56 already and the one thing you can count on is that the consensus will always be wrong. How many people said "the era of cheap oil was over" in the mid 2000's and after the financial crisis? Maybe they were wrong too...who knows?

    Nobody can pick it...not even you.
    What I do know is that the 6 advantages EV's have over ICE vehicles that I mentioned above will remain whatever the price of oil is...and that is why EV's will win in the long run.
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The Plug On Tesla [View article]
    Thank you Gordonr. What is the funniest comment on this article is also the most accurate.

    Once people drive a quality EV (like a Tesla) for a given amount of time the vast majority of them NEVER want to go back to gas powered cars.
    It would help if some of the short sellers here took note as to the following reasons why this is so:

    This is because the EV (as Tesla produces it) is vastly superior to any ICE vehicle.
    1. Maximum torque at 0 rpm. So almost anybody will be able to have a high performance vehicle for a lower cost than an equally performing ICE vehicle. ie. Tesla P85D can out accelerate most supercars that cost 2-3 times as much or more.
    I am willing to bet that the Model 3 will have a 0-60 mph time of just under 6 seconds compared to the BMW 320i of around 7.2 secs for a starting price of $33k. Model 3 should cost $27.5k after Fed tax rebate.

    2. Much higher levels of safety. With the battery in the floor and motors between wheels there is no ICE engine directly in front of you. This gives you a massive crumple zone for head on impacts and an extremely low centre of gravity making the car virtually impossible to roll over (maybe not a big deal in the sedan market but this is a HUGE plus when it comes to the Model X SUV coming out in Q3).

    3. Much more storage space. Again no engine in front means a trunk in the front "frunk". Can lay seats down perfectly flat in the back due to the flat battery pack underneath. Thus Model S and X easily have more storage space than any other vehicle in its class.

    4. Better AWD/handling. An electric motor can react to changing road conditions in milliseconds since the electric power required from the battery can be fed at the speed of light. An ICE reaction time pales in comparison while you have to wait for fuel to be fed, pistons to fire, gears to move, etc, etc...milliseconds count when your life is on the people will pay for this advantage when it comes to protecting themselves and their families.

    5. Much less to operate and maintain. Despite falling oil prices electricity will always be cheaper than gasoline (partly because it takes a lot of electricity just to refine oil into gasoline) not to mention all the energy it takes to drill, ship, refine, truck, pump, and burn gasoline! Electric motors have only a handful of moving parts compared to hundreds in your average ICE. They will always be cheaper to maintain and that is a fact.

    6. Better for the environment. Yes even when getting your electricity from 100% coal you are still 40% cleaner than your average ICE vehicle. This is due to economies of scale at the massive stationary power plant over a tiny mobile ICE in your vehicle. Think of it like don't power your house with a tiny, noisy, and polluting portable generator do you? No you source the power from a massive power plant far away who does it more efficiently. With an EV you are simply applying this logic to your vehicle.
    With an EV you have the OPTION of using renewable electricity to power your car. You do not have this option with an are burning fossil fuels...period.
    Also when you use an ICE you are burning fuel which is LOST FOREVER to future generations. With an EV you have the OPTION of using renewable energy and recycling your batteries when they are depleted (current estimates are around 150,000 miles before 80% depletion for Model S...Model III will be even better).

    Thus all the materials in the EV and the fuel used in running it are NOT LOST to future generations. Important to some people who actually care about what we are doing to the planet and what we will leave behind for our children.

    However even if we all switched to EV's using 100% coal (currently 37% and falling in US electricity grid) it would certainly be easier to filter a few hundred stationary power plants emissions over millions of mobile ICE's running around all over the place.

    And there you have it 6 easy to see reasons why the ICE in the vast majority of vehicles will be obsolete in around 10 years.
    And you can thank Tesla for getting the ball rolling by the way.
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:39 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    If you believe Musk you'll be looking at over $5000 per share in 10 years.
    Which would still make Tesla a 25 bagger from here. I made 7x my money and exited around $170. Definitely always have my eye on TSLA but moreso on the potential winners when big auto finally capitulates and starts building gigafactories of their own to keep up with Tesla.

    Think graphite, lithium, cobalt, and nickel just to get you started.
    Mar 11, 2015. 07:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    Haha that's hilarious temperest.
    Apple should have bought Tesla when they had the chance at just a few billion a few years ago but they along with all the doubters couldn't see Musk's vision. They would still do well to buy them out now if they really want to impact the EV world.
    Apple doesn't actually build anything. They design cool gadgets which they farm out to China to build. They certainly don't build batteries, which you need A LOT of to make EV's in any real numbers.
    But with nearly $200 billion in the bank Apple can be whatever it wants to be I suppose. I just think it will take them a long long time to get to where Tesla is now.
    They had the chance to buy Tesla before it became cool and everybody wanted one. If they come out with a car now they will just look like copycats and will have lost the cool factor.
    Of course there are plenty of Apple iSheeps out there who have no idea what cool is anymore and just go for the logo so I'm sure anything Apple will eventually sell if they throw enough money at it.

    Everyone goes on about Apple or Google being a Tesla killer. Neither of these high tech companies make batteries though (which is of course the key ingredient for an affordable EV)...Samsung is the REAL potential Tesla killer...and they also have the money in the bank to do it.
    If I was Elon Musk, Samsung would be the only company that I would worry about getting into the EV business.

    Apple seems to be merely putting a team together to build infotainment services to sell to big auto. Nothing to see here.
    Feb 16, 2015. 12:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    Haha so you find TWO examples of 12v battery failure out of 60k+ cars on the road and that somehow translates into EVERYONE needing a 12v battery replacement EVERY year???? Laughable...totally pulling at straws...classic short just making things up now.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    Yep Paulo just lost all credibility there. Saying that EVERYONE must get a 12v battery change every year...ball-der-dash..... try to tell people who actually own the car what they need to do Santos...just pathetic.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    Great comment Everman...sawtooth production numbers as bottlenecks occur, are overcome, and occur again at some other point in the production line, etc. This is how real world ramp up in manufacturing works.
    I told Santos originally to step back and look at the big picture i.e. YOY production numbers and the trend line is obvious and roughly to the guidance provided by Tesla but he deludes himself as he has done for over 2 years now with his "demand is falling" story.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    If anything it shows the raging demand for high end autos...which bodes extremely well for Tesla S/X demand...which is after all what is in question here.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    How about because Fiat/Chrysler et all are the PAST when it comes to auto market. Tesla is the FUTURE. Intelligent people can see the writing on the wall for the ICE even if big auto can't.
    It's like would you rather invest in Blockbuster or Netflix?
    Sure Blockbuster may have a lot more inventory with a huge capacity to make DVD's, with lots of stores on the ground but they are all useless in the new environment for watching movies.
    Similarly the legacy automakers have billions and billions in outdated ICE vehicle manufacturing capability. It is useless in the new environment.

    As Tesla gets bigger and bigger with gigafactories and superchargers it invests in the new environment...the only one that matters...big auto does nothing and they will get slaughtered...rightly so.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    HAHA I would pay to see that too AltEnergyGuy.
    How much would it take Santo's to mount that GoPro?? Maybe we can get a pool going here on SA?
    I'm sure Musk would allow it for a few laughs.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Throttling Production? [View article]
    Leorex...its true that GM and others may be able to leapfrog Tesla with some new battery tech if the long range EV market takes off in 2018 or so with the Model III.
    However big auto still won't have a rapid recharging network like Tesla and there is no reason to think that the world's biggest EV maker in 2018 (Tesla) won't be on top of battery developments.
    It will also take big auto at least 3-4 years from when they get serious to start matching Tesla in terms of cost per kWh, battery/EV production numbers and to match the scope of their supercharging network.

    Even if new battery tech comes along Tesla can still use gigafactory #1 for Model S/X and SolarCity energy storage applications while incorporating the latest battery technology into gigafactory #2 which they might start construction of in 2019 or so. Tesla has also said that they are incorporating the upgradability of the gigafactory to allow for improvements in anode/cathode over time.

    With current tech it would take 200 gigafactories to turn the entire auto world electric. We are really at the tip of the iceburg here. Many more will be built. I am waiting for big auto or big battery (Samsung, LG, etc) to announce at least one gigafactory of their own before piling into graphite, lithium, nickel, and cobalt stocks.
    The demand of these materials is set to go bananas by the end of the decade.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment