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  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Yes I admit most charging will be done at home. This is why Tesla wins by charging upfront for a supercharging network that most of its customers will rarely use. That is how you make a profit on such things.
    Thanks for ignoring every other aspect of my post. I know it's because you have no response but hey keep grabbing at straws. I think I will let Tesla's share price school you anyway.
    Good luck buddy. You will need it.

    P.s. The govt may well be ok with stumping up a few grand for a puny 30kW charging station but they get a little testy for $100k for a 100kW+ supercharging station like Tesla is offering.
    You are just so clueless mate it's like taking candy from a baby. Good luck out there. Please wear a helmet when you go outside.
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Again where are these networks going to get the $100k PER station to compete against a FREE network offered by Tesla who bakes the cost of the network into the price of the car??
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Oh boy deepfry. Talk about not getting it.
    My guess is that you have never owned an EV eh deepy?

    So you freely ADMIT that 200+ mile range EV's will be the future right?
    Well anybody who actually drives one of these cars (Tesla owners) will freely admit that they do 95+% of their charging at home. It has been proven that long distance trips (over 200+ miles in ONE DAY) might constitute 5% of the average persons yearly driving.

    Now picture this.
    95% of the time you are charging at home at super cheap off peak rates overnight. So 95% of the time you are NOT going to be paying a premium to use a plug share or chargepoint network.

    The rare occasions you are travelling over 200+ miles in one day you are going to be:
    A. On a roadtrip wanting to charge as quickly as possible so you can be back on the road again as soon as possible (not charging for HOURS at ChargePoint or Plug Share station while paying a premium rate) Tesla supercharging stations are MUCH faster and FREE.

    B. Staying somewhere overnight (with friends/family or at a hotel - both of which will likely let you plug in for free overnight). Hotel/Motel/Shopping Mall/Restaurant chains, etc are much more likely to install more free charging points as EV's proliferate. Again the cost is absorbed through increased sales/ EV driving customers.

    You can see in both scenarios ChargePoint and PlugShare don't have a future.
    You do realize that a business has to be able to generate revenue to survive right?
    The only way I see ChargePoint or PlugShare chargers getting any use is in an absolute emergency where someone has no other option. Maybe 1% falling to nil as Tesla chargers and other free chargers appear all over the place at shopping malls, hotels, restaurants, etc.

    MAYBE ChargePoint or PlugShare could have a future installing and maintaining chargepoints for these institutions and taking an annual fee for doing so but that's about it. Again it will be pretty hard when Tesla is offering its destination chargers for FREE again.

    Which brings me to my next point. It is pretty clear you have not looked at Tesla's destination charger map either. This is growing much faster than the supercharging network as Tesla installs these units again FOR FREE at any willing hotel/restaurant/ shopping mall, etc.

    Click on "destination chargers" to see that network under the "Find us" tab on the Tesla website.

    Ahh and you wanted to talk numbers too right? Well there have been many reports discussing how Tesla will not just cover its costs on the Supercharging network but also how it can make a handsome profit on the network as a whole:

    But here's some basic numbers for you. If Tesla bakes just $2000 into the price of its car to cover supercharging at 500,000 vehicles in 2020 that will be $1 billion dollars to go towards expansion/upgrades and operating costs of the network.
    Given that the average person travels around 15,000 miles per year that should be around 4,818 kWh. As only 5% on average will be used for long distance driving at Superchargers we can assume roughly 250 kWh per year per vehicle in electricity costs. National average per kWh is $0.12 so around $30 per vehicle per year in electricity costs. Say lifetime of car is 12 years so $360 in power at superchargers total per Tesla sold.

    Again at 500,000 vehicles per year Tesla can expect to add $15 million to its electricity bill on the network but took in $1 billion to fund the networks expansion and other operating costs.
    At roughly $150,000 per supercharging station it is pretty easy to see that Tesla could open many thousands of new supercharging stations every year once it hits the 500,000 per vehicle run rate.

    Now THAT's a profitable charging network.
    And one that will get better a whole lot faster than any other. Of that you can be sure.

    Oh and its far more than just paperwork the others will have to contend with. By paperwork I mean TIME buddy. Have you ever tried rushing a government bureaucrat to get your permit/inspections processed faster? Haha they only punish you by putting your request further down the's the only power they have in this world and they love to wield it when annoyed. Throwing money at the problem won't help big auto when they are scrambling to catch up. Electrical units drawing/supplying this rate of power need permit after permit and inspection after inspection...all different procedures in each different county/state/country or utility that you happen to be dealing with.

    As I said all the others at at least 3 years behind Tesla's geographical coverage when it comes to a super speed PRACTICAL long distance charging network.
    It's not just the paperwork as I said. It's hundreds of thousands of dollars PER charging station (if we are talking about 120 kW+).
    These are massive cables which can only be located in areas suited for drawing that rate of power. Otherwise those cables have to be run from the nearest SOURCE that can move that rate of power all the way to the charging station.
    I am willing to bet that the VAST majority of ChargePoint or PlugShare stations wouldn't even have the ability to upgrade to 75 kW or above.

    At any rate they need to spend $100k+ per station to upgrade them. Again WHERE do they get the funding to do this?

    Whew....hope I helped deepfry...but I fear it all may be lost on you anyway.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    You also say that plug share and charge point will rapidly expand and upgrade their charging speeds. Even though as I have shown they will have no incentive to do so as they can't compete with Tesla's free network nor can any other EV even charge at any where near Tesla speed.
    I will bet you right now who comes up with 200 kW charging first Tesla or any of your fee based networks.
    Tesla by a long shot.
    Your networks may have a bit of life until the 200+ mile range EV becomes commonplace. Once it does 95% of charging will be done at home overnight at super cheap off peak rates or on a free supercharging PRACTICAL network when rarely travelling long distance.
    Nobody will pay the premium for your networks unless in an emergency.
    This will not be enough to sustain those networks operating costs, let alone any type of expansion or upgrading.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Haha deep fry really showing your ignorance there.
    Yes absolutely permits and inspections will have to be applied for and take place before you can upgrade a standard run of the mill 20-30 kW charger up to 120 kW. Not to mention a few hundred thousand dollars to drastically increase supply to the area (most utilities require special permission to pull this rate of power out of the grid).
    It then all has to be certified that the process is safe for consumers to use.
    Yep a whole pile of paperwork and money is required to do what Tesla is doing to get to 120 kW.
    The puny charge point or plug share stations you mention cost a few thousand to install (because most of them are just essentially 220v outlets that you plug your washing machine into). They are also heavily govt subsidised (again more paperwork and bureaucracy to deal with that Tesla doesn't need to worry about).
    So again think about it. Who is going to pay the hundreds of millions of dollars to compete with Tesla's FREE 135 kW supercharging network when they won't be able to charge for it?"
    The answer can be only another car company who can eat the cost of the network by building its cost into the price of the vehicle itself.
    Exactly what Tesla is doing and no other car company is doing.
    Considering that 95% of all charging is done at home in a 200+ mile EV the writing is on the wall for all other charging networks. Dead in the water with no way to charge for their second rate service.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Yes there are issues if the station has multiple vehicles, etc. But all easily monitored and fixed/upgraded as demand increases at each station.

    Still makes the point that Tesla has the best and fastest PRACTICAL long distance network out there. Nobody else has anything close and it will take them YEARS to catch up.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    I see logic is something you clearly struggle with deep fry.
    Yes supercharging will be built into the price of the Model 3. So if it does debut with a $35k pricetag the cost Tesla expects to need to cover over the vehicles lifetime when it comes to the supercharging network is built in. Maybe Tesla has figured out its more like $3000 per vehicle and not the $5k they were charging initially to enable supercharging on the 60kWh car.
    Either way the cost of the network is baked into the cars price.
    The consumer pays for it upfront based on Tesla's anticipated average cost/usage per vehicle on the network over its lifetime.
    However the consumer is not limited in any way as to how much they can actually use the network so yes it is free recharging and quite logical to call it that.
    Just like your beloved ICE companies offer a year of "free gas" with your purchase...except Tesla isn't so cheap to cut free refuelling off after just a year. It's for the life of your EV.
    Got it yet bud?
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Actually no Deepfryer again your off the mark.
    Tesla DOES charge for the supercharging network. It is just built into the price of the car (it used to be a $5000 option on the 60 kWh vehicle) now all cars have it built in to the price.
    Tesla is also smart to do this because it knows how little people will actually use the supercharging network. Because very few people travel more than 250 miles in ONE DAY.
    Studies have shown that 90+% of people travel less than 50 miles per day (to work, pick up kids at school, go home, etc).
    The excess range and supercharging network available to Tesla owners is just a security blanket to increase sales. Ask any Tesla owner how often they worry about range or use the supercharging network and the answer is "very rarely."
    95% of their charging is done at home overnight at super cheap off-peak rates from their utility.

    This doesn't mean a lot for people who can afford a $75k vehicle in the Model S/X but you better believe this will make ALL the difference when Tesla comes out with the mainstream Model III in 2017/18.

    All the difference in the world mate.

    It is also a brilliant strategy by Tesla because when you have a FREE network that is WAY faster than anybody else's it means nobody can charge for their network and therefore there is no incentive for anyone else to build a competing network (unless you are another car company using the network to increase sales a la Tesla).

    Hmm looking around. Don't see anybody else building an EV that can charge as fast as a Tesla OR building a FREE rapid charging network of 120 kW or higher?
    They are 3 years behind now. The gap widens with every day big auto delays.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Haha "high power" in ChargePoint or PlugShare terms is NOTHING compared to Tesla's 120 kW stations. Again PRACTICAL long distance travel is the key term here. 170 miles in 30 minutes mate...get it through your head if you can.
    There are no other EV's even capable of taking anything close to 120 kW charging either I would point out.

    Thus I repeat NOBODY else has a PRACTICAL long distance rapid charging network but Tesla.
    And this will remain the case for at least 3 years AFTER big auto gets serious about starting to build a real PRACTICAL long distance charging network (its not just a question of money its permits, regulations, inspections, etc which takes time and is different in each location)...unless of course big auto pays Tesla a bucketload to have their cars capable of using Tesla's network (Tesla will also force big auto to expand the network exponentially as a condition).

    p.s. again Tesla vehicles can use ALL of the Plug Share or ChargePoint connections if they want. However NOBODY but Tesla vehicles can use the Tesla Supercharging network.

    See how that works? Nah guess you don't.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    DeepFryer your comments expose your ignorance about EV's and which ones are ACTUALLY capable of PRACTICAL long distance travel.
    Talking about Chargepoint's 20k+ outlets is like saying there are hundreds of millions of outlets across the USA in homes and businesses countrywide.
    Yes there are...but that doesn't enable PRACTICAL long distance travel for an EV.

    Chargepoint is a network of LOW POWER outlets. Nothing more. Certainly nothing like the 120 kW (soon to be 135 kW) Tesla Supercharging stations that can give you 170 miles of additional range in 30 minutes.
    It is not practical to drive long distance in a Leaf stopping every 80 miles and spending HOURS recharging it to go another 80 miles.

    In a Tesla thanks to the FREE SUPERCHARGING NETWORK you drive 250+/- miles (or just over 3 hours at 70 mph) and you recharge for 30-45 MINUTES to go for another 250 +/- miles.

    See how that works? My point B above is completely valid for those attempting to think it through.

    p.s. as Cecil mentioned the ChargePoint network is available to Tesla owners as well. Not they will ever use it. 95% of the time people will use cheap overnight power from the grid at home... the other 5% will be for PRACTICAL long distance travel through the FREE Tesla Supercharger network.
    Apr 22, 2015. 08:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    I think fiwiki's problem boils down to this. He doesn't believe Tesla will be able to make the Model 3 in 2017/18 for the stated price of $35-$39k with a 200+ mile range AND make a profit.
    Obviously Tesla supporters believe they can.
    I believe Tesla (thanks to the gigafactory) will be making 40%+ gross margin on Model S/X by early 2017.
    Margins on Model 3 will be less (perhaps single digits initially) but growing to around 12-15% once volume production is established.

    Should allow for an overall gross margin in the 20%+ range over all models on offer by 2019 or so.

    The part I think Fiwiki still fails to appreciate is that IF Tesla is successful in this regard then the Model 3 will pretty much be the hottest selling sedan on the planet in 2017/18 and Tesla will also OWN the battery market.

    Consumers all over the world will be demanding an EV that can deliver what the Model 3 is offering.

    Big auto won't be able to deliver however because:

    A. They won't have the battery supply necessary to create any more than 50,000 EV's per year (capable of 200+ mile range that is). Any more than that and big auto will have to pay through the nose to the battery manufactures to encourage them to dramatically increase production. It will take at least 2-3 years before anyone in big auto will have the battery supply it needs to make the same number of 200+ mile EV's as Tesla. Eg. If big auto decides to seriously commit to EV's in 2018 it will be around 2021 before they will be able to compete with Tesla on a cost per kWh basis. But by then Tesla will be on its 2nd or 3rd battery gigafactory and perhaps even further ahead.

    B. They won't have a world wide supercharging network which essentially means that any EV they produce (even with a 200 mile range) has a 100 mile leash tied to it (you have to get back). This essentially makes any big auto EV offering incredibly lame and will be the MAJOR selling point for the Model 3.
    ie. GM says "buy our 100 mile leashed EV for $35k!"
    Tesla says "buy our 200+mile UNleashed EV for $35k!"

    I know which one will be in my garage ;-)
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Fiwiki...Tesla is already worth $25 billion. You know like just under HALF of GM and Ford's current market caps. They are already pretty much unobtainable to these "big auto" players. MAYBE Toyota could buy them out and they would be smart if they did...right now.

    Apple, Google, or Samsung could buy Tesla right now as they all have the cash on hand...they also would be very smart to do so. Particularly Samsung who is already the world's number 2 in lithium ion battery production and are experts in producing most of the other electronic components that would go into a Tesla vehicle (touchscreens, computers, motors, controllers, etc). See my blog to read more about the potential of a Tesla-Samsung merger. It certainly makes more sense than Apple or Google buying Tesla but SA wouldn't publish it as it was just a little too original for them.

    If my scenario plays out, and it seems like it might given big auto's apathy in the EV/battery market, then Tesla's value will quadruple when it does.

    And you say at that point big auto will "own Tesla"...more likely it will be the other way around.
    Apr 11, 2015. 06:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Thanks Cecil. Means a lot coming from you. Big fan of your comments here on SA.
    Apr 11, 2015. 05:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Ahh cparmer...seriously?
    Tesla has to DOUBLE worldwide production of lithium ion cells just to make 500,000 vehicles per year. They ARE the market for lithium ion.
    NOBODY else will be able to make 200+ mile range EV's in significant numbers UNLESS they commit to building battery gigafactories the size of Tesla's or bigger.
    NONE of the major auto OR battery manufacturers are building gigafactories of Tesla size. NONE. Not even close.
    So where do you think this leaves big auto when the entire world demands a vehicle that delivers what Model III can in 2018?
    It leaves them paying the highest price to any battery supplier who can give them enough cells to make 50,000-100,000 cars/year at best. And you can be sure that the battery industry will take full advantage of this...providing cells only to the highest bidder.
    Of course Tesla with its own gigafactory at its disposal will have access to batteries at 1/4 the cost of the rest of the auto industry in this scenario. Big auto will also be paying any price to Tesla in order to make their EV's compatible with Tesla's worldwide supercharging network.

    For all these reasons Tesla will trounce big auto come the end of the decade and likely buy up many shuttered big auto manufacturing plants for pennies on the dollar. By mid next decade Tesla is building millions of EV's per year. Range is near 350 miles (for a $35k vehicle) and recharging times are down to just 10 minutes as supercharging stations are upgraded and battery tech improves.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Elon Musk Giving Up On Battery Swaps? [View article]
    You guys don't have to wait that long really. If Tesla can't produce the Model III vehicle for under $40k with a 200 mile range by 2018 then a lot of air will come out of the stock.
    That said I still think Tesla can stay at the high end of the market (Porsche competitor with Model S and X) and still be an extremely profitable car company producing around 200-250k vehicles per year.
    They could also put out a Bugatti beating (0-60mph) 2 seater sportscar (new roadster) with lots of Carbon fibre and nearly 1000 hp.
    They could sell this car at less than a quarter of the price of a Bugatti and still make big profits. Due to a smaller lighter carbon fibre chassis and better batteries via the gigafactory I imagine the range could get close to 500 miles per charge if driven sensibly (given that the Roadster upgrade coming soon is to improve its range to around 400 miles).

    Given that the gigafactory is to be built in stages if they realize they can't make the Model III for under $39k by end of 2016 they can still choose to only make the gigafactory half of its original intended size and won't be stuck with a massively oversized battery factory even if the worst happens.

    When the CEO of VW bought Porsche a few years back he said he put its value at around $20 billion. I would say Tesla is the Porsche of the EV world now and should be worth a similar value (which at $25 billion currently isn't far off really). I feel Tesla is better positioned than Porsche currently for the future of transport which is almost certainly going to be 100% electric. Unlike Porsche who will be forced to spend billions in the transition to EV, Tesla is already there and is the one to beat in this space.
    Mar 20, 2015. 08:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment