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  • Tesla Is Unprofitable, But Is It Financially Healthy? [View article]
    Yep I agree outfornow...great reviews on Model X will be coming in Q1, along with good news on the PowerWall demand/deliveries, ending the quarter with the Model III unveiling.
    A fairly large capital raise will follow soon after. Probably around $2 billion to carry them through R&D/factory tooling for Model III and gigafactory works.
    With all the great buzz (so long as the Model III doesn't look ugly) I doubt the share price will be much affected.
    Revenue from strong S/X and powerwall sales, along with potentially 100,000+ Model III reservations in 2016/17 should mean another capital raise won't be necessary until after Model III release.
    This 2018 capital raise will be in response to off the charts demand for Model III. They will want to tool up the Freemont factory and gigafactory to push for 500,000 units/year ASAP. They may even be talking about a vehicle factory in Europe/Asia and gigafactory #2 by then...who knows.
    Nov 30, 2015. 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Examining The Bull Case [View article]
    robin..nope everybody knows the details on Model III...200+ mile range for approx. $35k...and as a Tesla it will be good looking, fastest in class, safest in class, most storage space in class, supercharger network ready, etc
    Nov 30, 2015. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Examining The Bull Case [View article]
    ...and this is to say nothing of business use abuse. There are already a few Tesla cabs/limo services using the superchargers for free fuel. Imagine when the Model III becomes the best selling taxi in the world due to the affordable price AND free supercharger fuel?
    What if Tesla puts out a pickup truck or van in future? Businesses will hog up the supercharging spots for sure!
    Nov 30, 2015. 12:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Examining The Bull Case [View article] would be surprised at how many people like Charr above have simply no clue about how EV's work.
    My cousin who is a very well educated person actually believed that you could ONLY charge a Tesla at one of their supercharging stations. i.e. that you couldn't plug it in at home to recharge!
    I think the initial rollout of the Nissan Leaf may have added to this confusion as you had to buy a special Leaf charger to plug in at home originally I believe?
    At any rate a lot of people out there don't understand that the charger is onboard and you can plug into any outlet with the right adapter. People also seem to think that an EV will take DAYS to recharge if plugged in at home, and not simply overnight on a standard 220v outlet.

    Just illustrates to me that when people are properly educated about their actual driving habits and how EV's really work the demand will skyrocket when the right vehicle emerges...and that's the Model III
    Nov 28, 2015. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Examining The Bull Case [View article]
    I think Tesla's decision to offer free supercharging is brilliant while the company is small and only selling high end vehicles.
    Say what you will but the supercharging network is one of Tesla's major competitive advantages over big auto. By offering supercharging for free Tesla is stifling the development of any other equivalent network from emerging in two ways.
    1. Non-auto makers aren't interested in providing a free world wide rapid charging network to compete against Tesla's as there is no way to generate revenue
    2. The big auto makers don't want to invest the money in a free world wide rapid charging network simply to satisfy 1-2% of the total auto market and, as others have said here, to encourage the proliferation of the EV over their core ICE business.

    However where I think the free network becomes a problem for Tesla is when they start producing the affordable Model III.
    Currently people who can afford to pay $100k+ for a Model S or X tend not to go out of their way to a supercharging station just to save $10 by not charging at home. It is simply not worth their time even if this could add up to many thousands of dollars in savings over the life of the vehicle.

    People with lower incomes will see the long term savings opportunity by using the free superchargers to "top off" whenever they are close to one. This of course is not how they are intended to be used (they are only supposed to be used by people legitimately travelling long distance and far from home in order to get to their next destination on their road trip).

    What will Tesla do then? Well they could add more superchargers to ensure that those on legitimate long distance travels can always find a charger. However they may just exacerbate the problem, as the more chargers you install in more locations the more you open up the opportunity for local Tesla owners to abuse them.
    I imagine Tesla Model III owners could start planning their weekly grocery shop or mall/ movie/ restaurant visits to line up with using the closest supercharger at the same time. i.e. not charging at home at all during the week but using a supercharger once a week to top up instead while shopping, watching a movie, or eating out at their favorite restaurant.

    Like I said unlikely to be a problem until the Model III is out in serious numbers (2018/19) but something I think Tesla will have to address at some stage if it is to keep superchargers available for legitimate long distance use and not abused by hundreds of thousands of Model III owners.
    Nov 28, 2015. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Ready To Rocket, And Its 2015 Q3 Valuation [View article]
    Hi Bill,
    So if customers are getting an equivalent of $15k USD to buy these cars in subsidies what is the effective price of the car? These little cars look like they should cost less than $15k USD to begin with!
    I can now see them on the JV website, thank you for the link.

    The joint venture is with Geely Automotive right? A much bigger auto firm in China. Why did Geely feel the need to form a JV with Kandi (which as far as I can see only ever made a few tiny BEV's and mostly gas powered go-karts and ATV's)?
    Not criticising but just trying to understand the background to the JV.

    Hope you can help!
    Nov 14, 2015. 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Ready To Rocket, And Its 2015 Q3 Valuation [View article]
    Been to the Kandi website and can't see any cars called the K12 City Beauty/Cowboy or K17 Cyclone...when are these EV's due to be released and what will their prices be? I hear the Chinese government is giving up to $10,000 USD and free licence plates for EV's which should be a huge driver.
    I assume the K11 Panda you are all talking about is the KD-5011 on their website?

    If the Chinese government is giving $10k subsidies for these types of vehicles they must be nearly free to buy! No wonder they are the country's top selling EV!

    I also have shares in BYD...not sure why they aren't pushing harder on the EV front considering all the govt incentives.

    Where does Kandi get its batteries from?
    Nov 13, 2015. 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Yes I admit most charging will be done at home. This is why Tesla wins by charging upfront for a supercharging network that most of its customers will rarely use. That is how you make a profit on such things.
    Thanks for ignoring every other aspect of my post. I know it's because you have no response but hey keep grabbing at straws. I think I will let Tesla's share price school you anyway.
    Good luck buddy. You will need it.

    P.s. The govt may well be ok with stumping up a few grand for a puny 30kW charging station but they get a little testy for $100k for a 100kW+ supercharging station like Tesla is offering.
    You are just so clueless mate it's like taking candy from a baby. Good luck out there. Please wear a helmet when you go outside.
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Again where are these networks going to get the $100k PER station to compete against a FREE network offered by Tesla who bakes the cost of the network into the price of the car??
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Oh boy deepfry. Talk about not getting it.
    My guess is that you have never owned an EV eh deepy?

    So you freely ADMIT that 200+ mile range EV's will be the future right?
    Well anybody who actually drives one of these cars (Tesla owners) will freely admit that they do 95+% of their charging at home. It has been proven that long distance trips (over 200+ miles in ONE DAY) might constitute 5% of the average persons yearly driving.

    Now picture this.
    95% of the time you are charging at home at super cheap off peak rates overnight. So 95% of the time you are NOT going to be paying a premium to use a plug share or chargepoint network.

    The rare occasions you are travelling over 200+ miles in one day you are going to be:
    A. On a roadtrip wanting to charge as quickly as possible so you can be back on the road again as soon as possible (not charging for HOURS at ChargePoint or Plug Share station while paying a premium rate) Tesla supercharging stations are MUCH faster and FREE.

    B. Staying somewhere overnight (with friends/family or at a hotel - both of which will likely let you plug in for free overnight). Hotel/Motel/Shopping Mall/Restaurant chains, etc are much more likely to install more free charging points as EV's proliferate. Again the cost is absorbed through increased sales/ EV driving customers.

    You can see in both scenarios ChargePoint and PlugShare don't have a future.
    You do realize that a business has to be able to generate revenue to survive right?
    The only way I see ChargePoint or PlugShare chargers getting any use is in an absolute emergency where someone has no other option. Maybe 1% falling to nil as Tesla chargers and other free chargers appear all over the place at shopping malls, hotels, restaurants, etc.

    MAYBE ChargePoint or PlugShare could have a future installing and maintaining chargepoints for these institutions and taking an annual fee for doing so but that's about it. Again it will be pretty hard when Tesla is offering its destination chargers for FREE again.

    Which brings me to my next point. It is pretty clear you have not looked at Tesla's destination charger map either. This is growing much faster than the supercharging network as Tesla installs these units again FOR FREE at any willing hotel/restaurant/ shopping mall, etc.

    Click on "destination chargers" to see that network under the "Find us" tab on the Tesla website.

    Ahh and you wanted to talk numbers too right? Well there have been many reports discussing how Tesla will not just cover its costs on the Supercharging network but also how it can make a handsome profit on the network as a whole:

    But here's some basic numbers for you. If Tesla bakes just $2000 into the price of its car to cover supercharging at 500,000 vehicles in 2020 that will be $1 billion dollars to go towards expansion/upgrades and operating costs of the network.
    Given that the average person travels around 15,000 miles per year that should be around 4,818 kWh. As only 5% on average will be used for long distance driving at Superchargers we can assume roughly 250 kWh per year per vehicle in electricity costs. National average per kWh is $0.12 so around $30 per vehicle per year in electricity costs. Say lifetime of car is 12 years so $360 in power at superchargers total per Tesla sold.

    Again at 500,000 vehicles per year Tesla can expect to add $15 million to its electricity bill on the network but took in $1 billion to fund the networks expansion and other operating costs.
    At roughly $150,000 per supercharging station it is pretty easy to see that Tesla could open many thousands of new supercharging stations every year once it hits the 500,000 per vehicle run rate.

    Now THAT's a profitable charging network.
    And one that will get better a whole lot faster than any other. Of that you can be sure.

    Oh and its far more than just paperwork the others will have to contend with. By paperwork I mean TIME buddy. Have you ever tried rushing a government bureaucrat to get your permit/inspections processed faster? Haha they only punish you by putting your request further down the's the only power they have in this world and they love to wield it when annoyed. Throwing money at the problem won't help big auto when they are scrambling to catch up. Electrical units drawing/supplying this rate of power need permit after permit and inspection after inspection...all different procedures in each different county/state/country or utility that you happen to be dealing with.

    As I said all the others at at least 3 years behind Tesla's geographical coverage when it comes to a super speed PRACTICAL long distance charging network.
    It's not just the paperwork as I said. It's hundreds of thousands of dollars PER charging station (if we are talking about 120 kW+).
    These are massive cables which can only be located in areas suited for drawing that rate of power. Otherwise those cables have to be run from the nearest SOURCE that can move that rate of power all the way to the charging station.
    I am willing to bet that the VAST majority of ChargePoint or PlugShare stations wouldn't even have the ability to upgrade to 75 kW or above.

    At any rate they need to spend $100k+ per station to upgrade them. Again WHERE do they get the funding to do this?

    Whew....hope I helped deepfry...but I fear it all may be lost on you anyway.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    You also say that plug share and charge point will rapidly expand and upgrade their charging speeds. Even though as I have shown they will have no incentive to do so as they can't compete with Tesla's free network nor can any other EV even charge at any where near Tesla speed.
    I will bet you right now who comes up with 200 kW charging first Tesla or any of your fee based networks.
    Tesla by a long shot.
    Your networks may have a bit of life until the 200+ mile range EV becomes commonplace. Once it does 95% of charging will be done at home overnight at super cheap off peak rates or on a free supercharging PRACTICAL network when rarely travelling long distance.
    Nobody will pay the premium for your networks unless in an emergency.
    This will not be enough to sustain those networks operating costs, let alone any type of expansion or upgrading.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Haha deep fry really showing your ignorance there.
    Yes absolutely permits and inspections will have to be applied for and take place before you can upgrade a standard run of the mill 20-30 kW charger up to 120 kW. Not to mention a few hundred thousand dollars to drastically increase supply to the area (most utilities require special permission to pull this rate of power out of the grid).
    It then all has to be certified that the process is safe for consumers to use.
    Yep a whole pile of paperwork and money is required to do what Tesla is doing to get to 120 kW.
    The puny charge point or plug share stations you mention cost a few thousand to install (because most of them are just essentially 220v outlets that you plug your washing machine into). They are also heavily govt subsidised (again more paperwork and bureaucracy to deal with that Tesla doesn't need to worry about).
    So again think about it. Who is going to pay the hundreds of millions of dollars to compete with Tesla's FREE 135 kW supercharging network when they won't be able to charge for it?"
    The answer can be only another car company who can eat the cost of the network by building its cost into the price of the vehicle itself.
    Exactly what Tesla is doing and no other car company is doing.
    Considering that 95% of all charging is done at home in a 200+ mile EV the writing is on the wall for all other charging networks. Dead in the water with no way to charge for their second rate service.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Yes there are issues if the station has multiple vehicles, etc. But all easily monitored and fixed/upgraded as demand increases at each station.

    Still makes the point that Tesla has the best and fastest PRACTICAL long distance network out there. Nobody else has anything close and it will take them YEARS to catch up.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    I see logic is something you clearly struggle with deep fry.
    Yes supercharging will be built into the price of the Model 3. So if it does debut with a $35k pricetag the cost Tesla expects to need to cover over the vehicles lifetime when it comes to the supercharging network is built in. Maybe Tesla has figured out its more like $3000 per vehicle and not the $5k they were charging initially to enable supercharging on the 60kWh car.
    Either way the cost of the network is baked into the cars price.
    The consumer pays for it upfront based on Tesla's anticipated average cost/usage per vehicle on the network over its lifetime.
    However the consumer is not limited in any way as to how much they can actually use the network so yes it is free recharging and quite logical to call it that.
    Just like your beloved ICE companies offer a year of "free gas" with your purchase...except Tesla isn't so cheap to cut free refuelling off after just a year. It's for the life of your EV.
    Got it yet bud?
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet the Chinese Gigafactory [View news story]
    Actually no Deepfryer again your off the mark.
    Tesla DOES charge for the supercharging network. It is just built into the price of the car (it used to be a $5000 option on the 60 kWh vehicle) now all cars have it built in to the price.
    Tesla is also smart to do this because it knows how little people will actually use the supercharging network. Because very few people travel more than 250 miles in ONE DAY.
    Studies have shown that 90+% of people travel less than 50 miles per day (to work, pick up kids at school, go home, etc).
    The excess range and supercharging network available to Tesla owners is just a security blanket to increase sales. Ask any Tesla owner how often they worry about range or use the supercharging network and the answer is "very rarely."
    95% of their charging is done at home overnight at super cheap off-peak rates from their utility.

    This doesn't mean a lot for people who can afford a $75k vehicle in the Model S/X but you better believe this will make ALL the difference when Tesla comes out with the mainstream Model III in 2017/18.

    All the difference in the world mate.

    It is also a brilliant strategy by Tesla because when you have a FREE network that is WAY faster than anybody else's it means nobody can charge for their network and therefore there is no incentive for anyone else to build a competing network (unless you are another car company using the network to increase sales a la Tesla).

    Hmm looking around. Don't see anybody else building an EV that can charge as fast as a Tesla OR building a FREE rapid charging network of 120 kW or higher?
    They are 3 years behind now. The gap widens with every day big auto delays.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment