Lockstep Investing

Lockstep Investing
Contributor since: 2008
Excellent quarter. So much upside to the stock. Radian is rad!!! http://bit.ly/1uyQKF5
Good comment Doyle3000. Well written article and everything said is correct. But the originators of Workday is the PeopleSoft team. These people have done this before and have been very successful. Moreover there is such a need for cloud based ERP solutions that the demand is very tangible.
Finally, in the market as a whole valuations are stretching so it makes the future seem like tomorrow.
I can understand both sides of the issue. I am long Workday myself. I just hope the author is shorting but has hedged it in some regard because the potential is strong.
Carl, this is a good overview of the current state. But what about the future?
The most compelling growth in the company is the margins improvement based on the high rate of growth of data services. Turkcell has the network to support that growth for a long time, and a competitive advantage in the quality of that network.
Second, the subsidiaries in outside of Turkey have had tremendous growth also. That expanding footprint makes Turkcell particularly attractive because of access to markets that are rounding errors to Verizon and Vodafone.
I hope they get the ownership struggle resolved soon, but I am not optimistic about it.
"Too exposed to the whims of the day." I like MAT just because it is a consumer discretionary item. With the recent stabilization of the economy and mild growth, parents are finding room to pay for toys for their kids. Yes there is fear of turning back, but the last three years the "fear" trade has been a loser.
Goodness gracious, you must be new to this stock. The market prospects for the company are wonderful but the shareholder governance is a nightmare. This company could report record earnings this year and the stock could still cut in half if they don't get the ownership structure issues resolved.
This coming from someone is long TKC. I am just sober about the prospects.
This analysis, in retrospect, really had very little forward looking information. As a result, anyone who took your advice and purchased this stock would have been crushed with a terrible entry point.
In the future, it seems that the discussion about VIV needs focus on competitive pressures and regulatory changes. Also what is the likelihood that TEF will juice VIV for additional cash for the holding company? These are real risks that any investor in VIV needs to price in.
Very well done. I am long CIB also. I am curious about your comments regarding BAP and BBD also. BBD in particular because I feel Brazil is being heavily discounted right now due to the slowdown in commodity consumption in China.
Excellent post. Excellent. The hypocrisy of the policymakers is on display. It will just take a while for the political winds to change to reflate the value of the junior non-cum preferreds for Fannie and Freddie.
This article very backward looking instead of looking forward for future performance. Yes, they increased inventory significantly and that because they are rollout the first major product in many years. These are capital intensive products and this would be a normal occurrence for this type of company.
What about the sales pipeline? What is the quality of that?
Good observation. If you had stuck with your gut you could have watched it rise to $26/share. But I also agreed with the risk/reward assessment you made too.
Agreed. Need to wait for resolution by the board. But for the retail investor, by the time the news gets out this stock will be 10% more expensive at least.
Great post! Good analysis. Let's see what happens.
Why do you think Japanese are clueless? There are huge positive and negative incentives for Japanese workers to buy JGB. Don't judge so quickly. Moreover, most of the holders of their debt are pension funds, municipalities, insurance companies etc. All of those entities have regulatory requirements to buy JGB. So the door is locked and the money is not getting out, that is how they make it work.
Very well done. I also have been long BRFS and done well. But I am still more optimistic because the margin expansion opportunities look like a pretty good bet. Also Sadia is a mechanism for international expansion. Sadia marketing and operations executing very well before the implosion.
In any case, I am reinforcing what you said. Good article.
Peru consumer credit quality declining again. See the analysis here....http://bit.ly/tf6GKH
What did you say in this article that is not parroting the 10-Q and the investor presentation?
Easy buddy, I like the TEVA position. I just think the fact that Amgen is paying a dividend now is a big shift in policy. It is not trying to keep the profile of a growth stock and now is changing to an income stock. That is a big deal. It changes the investing perspective of the stock and probably puts the stock in a tighter range, but with more support.
Also, what about the pipeline? Prolia looks like it is gaining some traction. Is the growth stalled for long?
But as a short term speculation, i think the drivers you mention are accurate.
Don't try to clean it up. You didn't do your homework. The dividend is there and you did not account for it.
First you like the 40% run up.
Then you say it is underperforming. If it was underperforming, then the run up did not matter.
Then you say the 72% payout is "comfortable" with upside earnings potential for 2011.
Later you say that the patent cliff is going to effect 40% of their sales so their earnings are not secure.
Too many contradictions to take this article seriously.
Look haters... despite all the hype, Ford is still insolvent with all that debt outstanding. It is much more responsible to get up the capital ladder with an overleveraged company like F than to sit there at the bottom and get creamed if the global economy takes one good wack.
Be responsible, protect yourself. Cramer is in front of millions of people, he has to be responsible too. Often wrong and slightly manic, but he still, in his own way, acts responsibly.
Let me start out by saying I am a huge bear and think the Euro Zone is imploding slowing and will reach depression levels (10% decline in GDP peak to trough)
I agree with Cramer on the premise that stocks are very oversold in the short term. The flash crash was because of some yahoo who overreacted when the euro started to fall. A dropping euro is a subsidy of that area at the expense of the US. But both economies are not going to collapse, not yet. Not on something as petty as this.
When the UK or Italy has an auction that fails, that may do it. But not this penny annie Greece or Portugal stuff. Who cares?
Many of the loans that Sallie Mae makes are variable rate and thus will begin to generate higher yields as rates normalize. This 1.5B may have been raised at usurous rates, but in the scheme of all the debt they have to rollover this year, this is really just a small amount.
I look at this recent offering as a chance for Sallie Mae to show pony for Congress the borrowing rates for a government chartered enterprise. It just sets Sallie Mae out for a bailout loan later this year at the time of rollover. (The major rollover dates are 6/15/2010 and 9/15/2010). Expect congressional action at about these times.
Yes, I am currently long senior Sallie Mae debt based on moral hazard. I would rather make cents than make sense.
Great call. NOT.
Huh??? So you are saying that when the US gov allow GM and Chrysler to go bankrupt, two huge platinum consumers, the price of platinum should explode?
I don't get it. I also disagree.
Good call. But the key is research on how the business model will benefit from all of the positive exposure that Avatar is bringing the the IMAX platform.
Good call. But the key is research on how the business model will benefit from all of the positive exposure that Avatar is bringing the the IMAX platform.