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Logan Smyth  

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  • Is Greece Another Lehman? [View article]
    Hey Calafia,

    I think your main point is spot on. By comparison this crisis is far more transparent. I disagree with the notion, though, that heightened transparency should translate to less pessimism. I'm of the belief that this crisis could actually end up being worse for a few reasons...

    - European banks on average are leveraged close to 30:1
    - The disparate political system all but ensures any reaction to the crisis will be late and muted at best
    - A lack of political action could lead to considerably more bank failures than was experienced in 2008
    - The impact from resulting bank failures causes considerable damage to lending and securitization

    Thanks for another good article. Yours are normally quite provactive.
    Sep 13, 2011. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tax Break Lift The U.S. Dollar? [View article]
    A very interesting angle that I hadn't thought of. Thanks for pointing this out. I was already long USD under the assumption of a collapse in the Euro, but this could be fuel on the fire.
    Sep 7, 2011. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: The Euro Crisis Is 'Manageable' [View article]
    Cullen, I normally like you're articles but I can't help but feel like you're misrepresenting Ben for the sake of a headline. Ben said that US banks' exposure to the PIIGS is "manageable relative to their capital". Clearly he stating that the US banks' exposure to Europe is manageable, not Europe itself. That seems like a very big difference to me.

    I fully agree that the European debt crisis is being underestimated by most people, but on a relative basis US banks are in far, far better shape. US banks are leveraged ~10-15:1 as opposed to the Eurozone which is closer to 25-30:1. Further, European banks continue to carry soverign debt at 100 cents on the dollar. I wouldn't invest in any bank right now, but on a relative basis US banks are far safer.
    Sep 7, 2011. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So Long, Stock Picking [View article]
    Out of curiosity, what correlation are you looking at? Is it something I can pull on Bloomberg?
    Sep 3, 2011. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Reason Why The USD Index Is About to Plummet [View article]
    I have to disagree with you on most counts. First, the key technical support level for the USD Index is at $73, not $73.50. The index made a substantial bottom at $73 over the course of 5 trading sessions at the end of April. This level is more significant than $73.50 because it corresponds with the EUR/USD topping at $1.48 before its technical breakdown. I will cede that a break of the $73 or $1.48 levels would be quite significant.

    As for the Eurozone concerns, I think its absurd that the EUR/USD can even sustain these levels. The yields on Greek debt are already showing that the country is insolvent. Worse, it appears the Greek bailout is falling apart. The likelihood of a Greek default is rapidly increasing and with it the likelihood of a massive shock to the European banking sector. The European baking sector is insolvent and wouldn't be able to handle such a shock, at least not gracefully. Even Christine Lagarge has recently said European banks need immediate forced injections of capital.

    Simply put, the reason there is so much short interest in the Euro is because it is fundamentally doomed. European political leaders have proven themselves inept time and again. It is only a matter of time before Greece actually defaults and initates a chain of events that will bring the European banking sector to its knees.
    Aug 29, 2011. 02:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Excited for Windows Tablets [View article]
    I'm impressed with Microsoft's new tablet operating system as well but I think you are missing a bigger picture. Even if the next generation of Windows is compelling, it is still facing stronger competition than ever. Computing is quickly going mobile and Microsoft is badly lagging Apple and Google. This helps Microsoft's competitive position but hardly reverses the trend.
    Jun 2, 2011. 11:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold and Dollar at Biggest Inflection Point of the Year [View article]
    This is one of the better, more thought-provoking articles I've read in quite some time. I'm currently long the dollar via calls on the UUP. However, your analysis did give me pause. With regard to the dollar index, I think it put in a fairly substantial base at 73 before staging the recent rally. As such, a break below 73 would be far more alarming to me rather than a close below the 50 day. I certainly agree with you that we are at an inflection point, though I think it will take at least a couple days to shake out.
    May 30, 2011. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock at a Critical Juncture [View article]
    One point I forgot to add. Personally, I wouldn't put much faith in the recent inverted head and shoulders. Obviously technically analysis isn't very cut-and-dry, but to me this particular pattern doesn't seem particularly well defined, not substantial in duration. Head and shoulders seem to more accurately indicate large reversals and this just doesn't seem like a major inflection point higher.
    May 24, 2011. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock at a Critical Juncture [View article]
    Hey Andy,

    Good article as always. It looks like you put a lot of work into this one so first of all, thanks for that. A few points I think are worth considerings...

    - From a technical perspective, there is a major trendline that can be drawn from the Mar 9th bottom with a second reference point on 8/26/2011. It's hard to tell when Apple will test this trendline but it will likely be close to the $320 level you reference. Given the duration of this trendline, I'm inclined to believe a break to the downside would signal a significant selloff rather than a smaller one.

    - On a more macro perspective, it is becoming more clear that the market is facing several headwinds...the wind-down of QE2, the resurgence of the eurozone debt crisis, and increased evidence of a slowing global recovery (eg. Germany, the BRICs, and to a lesser extent the US). Traders and pundits have been referring to Apple as "defensive tech" but that's hardly a strong buy recommendation.

    - To your multiple contraction point, I was actually looking at consensus forecasts for Apple the other night and was surprised by what appears to be considerably dampened growth rate forecasts. It appears to me equities in general are heading towards far more conservative multiple (10x is the new 15x). With slowing growth rates and this new normal, its entirely possible Apple has some downside in its future.

    I think $275 is likely the next stop and I actually called for this back in October when Apple was $318. Frankly though, I don't know if I will be buying as aggressively as I had originally planned if it reaches this level.
    May 24, 2011. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time Around, Apple Is Microsoft [View article]
    im fairly tech savvy and even i found this incredibly difficult to read
    May 16, 2011. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So What Will Bernanke Do Now? [View article]
    I think the tone of this article is a bit extreme. I've been looking at the same chart you show of the dollar and it appears to be building a base at 73 with a top in the EUR/USD around 1.49. I personally believe the dollar is getting ready to stage a rally because congress will be forced to begin taking action to correct our budget problems. Frankly, the markets have had a huge run on the backs of QE1/2 and a temporary pullback in equities and commodities would be healthy at these levels. I could be wrong but compared to Japan's massive debt and the continuing problems in the Eurozone, the US dollar doesn't look too bad.
    May 4, 2011. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Physical Silver Investors Are Being Hoodwinked by the Futures Market [View article]
    If retail investors are stupid enough to buy silver at these insane prices, they have nobody else to blame for their losses when it comes crashing back down.
    Apr 26, 2011. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Don't Mess With This Bubble [View article]
    I'm curious what you make of todays price action. I'm short the Jul futures as of this morning. To me it looks like it touched previous resistance and sold off hard immediately after. It looks a lot like a blow off top to me after a parabolic move. I'll be watching closely to see where it closes.
    Apr 25, 2011. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Apple Run Over? [View article]
    All this really does is confirm what has been fairly obvious for the last couple weeks. Apple has lost momentum and is lagging the broader market. The major indices have all formed double tops and a significant correction is likely already underway. If that is the case, Apple breaks down just like all the other high fliers. Of course, this will be refuted the whole way down by the Apple bulls who think the stock is only capable of moving in one direction.
    Apr 18, 2011. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Consumers Have Big Banks to Blame for High Gas Prices [View article]
    This article is complete nonsense. You are essentially blaming banks for what boils down to simple economics.

    1) We're broke so we have to print more money for continued federal spending
    2) Printing more money makes each dollar worth less
    3) Assets denominated in dollars increase in price as a result

    Nevermind the fact that India and China are growing at close to 10% a year and as a result are increasing demand for commodities, especially energy.

    Its a free market. Prices are dictated by supply and demand. Making absurd claims like somehow its all the banks fault is ridiculous and shows a fundamental lack of understanding of simple economics.
    Apr 3, 2011. 06:50 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment