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Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons
- Over two months after launch, sales of Keryx's only drug - Auryxia - are extremely low.
- Auryxia's renewal rate appears to be particularly low, perhaps indicating a serious intolerability problem.
- Velphoro, a competing drug with several advantages over Auryxia, is also generating negligible sales.
- Despite these factors, KERX has a market cap of over $1.4 billion.
Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America
- Titan Logix Corp. sells a unique line of high-technology gauges for tanker trucks.
- It's a 53% gross margin business with no debt that currently sells for just 4.8x run-rate earnings and 2.8x EBITDA, net of its cash.
- While the company has the potential to double or triple earnings over the next four years, it's dirt-cheap based just on current earnings.
How Tesla's Deceptive Self-Defined Gross Margin REALLY Compares To Porsche's
- Tesla defines gross margin in a way that ignores the true cost of designing and manufacturing its cars.
- When this deceptive methodology is corrected we can see that the company's true gross margins are awful.
- Elon Musk's "gross margin benchmark" of Porsche may as well be on Musk's beloved planet Mars relative to where Tesla's margins are.
Why It's Absurd To Call The Oil Price Drop A 'Free Tax Cut' For America
Dec. 11, 2014 • 42 Comments
- The U.S. only imports approximately 1/3 of its oil.
- That means 2/3 of American's oil cost is already being spent domestically.
- If half the savings on the "imported 1/3" is reallocated to consumer products made overseas, the net benefit to U.S. GDP will be even smaller.
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla's Most Recent Conference Call
- On the Q3 conference call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk blamed the company's guidance reduction on "production problems".
- Musk stated that "...demand is not our issue. Production is our issue".
- Musk also made a VERY specific statement regarding inventory. That statement is highlighted and contradicted below.
Tiny Sangoma Technologies May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America
- Sangoma makes hardware and software for voice and data IP communications.
- Net of its cash, the company sells for 3x EBITDA and 0.27x revenue with 67% gross margins.
- With a market cap of $8.7 million (Canadian), this stock isn't for everyone!
Tekmira Pharmaceuticals' Ebola Run-Up Isn't In Touch With Reality
- Tekmira's stock has had a huge run-up recently due to its potential treatment for Ebola.
- There's no human clinical evidence demonstrating that Tekmira's drug works.
- Even if the drug does work, the Ebola market is tiny.
Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd
- The "sell-side" is forecasting that Tesla will sell 500,000 cars in 2020.
- If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year, 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%.
- No complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more.
Tesla May Have A Huge Unfunded Warranty Problem Due To Defective Drivetrains
- Many reports are circulating about Model S drivetrains needing to be replaced.
- The cost of these replacements is likely to significantly worsen Tesla's operating losses.
- The $15,000 ex-warranty replacement cost may significantly affect the resale value of the car and thus the cost of Tesla's "Resale Value Guarantee" program.
Why Shorting Japan's 10-Year Government Bond Is Now A Fantastically Asymmetrical Trade
- Japan's most recent core inflation report (for the month of March) showed a year over year increase of 1.3%.
- The 10-year Japanese government bond now yields just 0.6%.
- The all-time lowest yield of the bond was 0.425%, set when Japan's core inflation rate was -0.4%.
- A yield decrease to tie the all-time low would raise the bond's price by just 1.7% while an increase to current core inflation +1% would lower its price by 15.1%.
- Shorting the 10-year JGB is thus an extremely asymmetrically favorable trade.
Titan Logix: Multi-Hundred Percent Potential Upside With Limited Downside
- Titan Logix Corp. has a unique line of high technology products serving the energy and tanker industries.
- It has no debt and currently sells for just 10x estimated CY 2014 earnings, net of its cash.
- The company has the potential to triple its earnings (and quadruple its stock price) over the next four or five years.
- Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream
- New Models From Honda And Audi Will Consign Tesla And Its Superchargers To A Smaller Niche
- Pain Therapeutics: Very Substantial Risk-Adjusted Upside Vs. Downside
3 Questions That Advocates Of QE Are Ducking
Oct. 24, 2013 • 34 Comments
- Broadwind Energy Is Primed For Significant Year-End Upside
- Why Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued, Even If Everything Goes Terrifically
- Why Tesla Won't Be Able To Profitably Build A BMW 3-Series Competitor
- Tesla: A New Generation Of Competing Plug-In Luxury Hybrids Will Shrink The Niche Of The Model S
- At The Current Stock Price, Broadwind's Wind Businesses Are Free...
- Is The Art Market A Bubble That's About To Burst? Maybe Not...
- Broadwind Energy Could Be Set For A 'Towering' 2014
- Titan Logix: Novel Technology And A Low Single-Digit PE Ratio
- Broadwind Energy: The Turnaround Is Underway
- Lorex Technology Is The Cheapest Growth Stock I've Seen This Year
- Why It May Finally Be Safe To Short The 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Stocks, Bonds, Gold: At Least One Of Them Is Wrong
Aug. 22, 2011 • 47 Comments
- Hedging Against a Dollar Decline
- Be Careful What You Wish For: A Congressional Debt Deal Could Crush Stocks
QE2 Effect Was Entirely Psychological (and Thus QE3 Won't Work)
May. 20, 2011 • 13 Comments
- Is Volume Now a Contrary Indicator?
- Power-One: Extremely Cheap on a 'Sum-of-the-Parts' Basis