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Logical Thought  

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  • Bullish On Japanese Yen Despite Wage Weakness [View article]
    I don't think there's any way to precisely time this-- I look at it as the "frog in slowly boiling water metaphor." I'm not sure how warm the water is at any given moment but it's pretty clear that over time it will get a lot hotter.
    Jul 4, 2015. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record [View news story]
    I can't help but be amused by doubleE saying that "no one will care" if the company misses full-year guidance by 7000 cars (and I think it 'll be more like 10,000), and yet the stock opened +$10 this morning because it beat Q2 guidance by five HUNDRED cars. So a 500-car "beat" is worth $1.5 billion in market cap (fully diluted) but a 7-10,000 car MISS will do nothing?

    Teslarian logic at its finest!
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:25 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Japanese Yen Despite Wage Weakness [View article]
    There's no way to produce 35% more a year of something without driving down its price. And if they do get real growth (unlikely) they'll have to print massively more to cap interest rates because of the massive amount of government debt. This trade is a "set and forget" no brainer-- the yen will @ 200 within a couple of years.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record [View news story]
    Sorry, just saw this comment thread. A few points:

    1) 10,000 in Q1 + 11,500 in Q2 and cars are now going into production within 10 days of being ordered so I predict 9000 for Q3. Would anyone like to help Tesla reiterate its 55K full-year guidance? It will only take approximately 25K cars in Q4.

    2) They beat low-balled guidance by 500 cars. Ford probably makes 500 F-150s in two hours. This is a $40B+ (enterprise value) company.

    3) Q2 almost certainly showed both a record loss (thanks to 40% low-margin 70s and a lot of deliveries to low-euro Europe) and a record cash burn, for the aforementioned reason as well as the number of used cars now in inventory, lack of ZEV credit sales and "investment" in the white elephant known as the "Gigafactory" that will be obsolete by 2020.

    When this bubble bursts it's gonna be fun to hear the Teslarians "blame the shorts."
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:40 AM | 38 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Japanese Yen Despite Wage Weakness [View article]
    Are you aware that Japan is printing around 35% of its monetary base a year? http://bit.ly/1JANQUn
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]
    Congrats to both (all) of you for having built this great must-read site. Enjoy your semi-retirement (David) and best of luck as the new CEO (Eli).
    Jul 2, 2015. 08:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    Tesla's business is showing negative scale even excluding capex, its management team lies all the time about the state of the business, your comparison to Porsche's gross margin is completely fallacious (http://tinyurl.com/pb4...) and your belief that other carmakers' upcoming EVs are half-hearted is complete nonsense-- Nissan sells far more than Tesla does and GM, VW Group and BMW are damn serious about crushing Tesla between now and 2019 and-- apropos to that-- Tesla has nothing meaningfully sustainably proprietary:
    http://tinyurl.com/qyq...

    http://tinyurl.com/nfr...

    http://tinyurl.com/npt...

    In sum, this is roughly a $40 billion (fully-diluted enterprise value) bubble-stock that will deflate when its lazy long mutual fund holders (such as Ron "a Tesla has only 14 moving parts" Baron) come to realize that they have bought into a fairy tale.
    Jun 30, 2015. 11:19 AM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Shipping Strategy And Why It Must Work [View article]
    >>Amazon should focus on its retail business and make it profitable. It cannot pursue all the directions at the same time.<<

    Yes of course, but the problem is that those profits (even if they were achieved) could never come CLOSE to justifying this company's $200 billion market cap so Bezos must always give his shareholders a new "bright shiny object" on which to focus so he can keep the stock promotion alive.
    Jun 28, 2015. 07:16 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon Is Paving The Way To Profitability Through Prime [View article]
    Here's a comparison (walmart.com, Amazon and jet.com) I did last weekend with four items (the only four I checked, so these weren't cherry-picked) that I buy all the time; I had put this as a comment earlier in the week under a different article:

    Post spoon-sized Shredded Wheat: not available on Jet. The Biscuits are $2.48 on walmart and $4.26 on Jet. Amazon: $29.95 for a 4-pack or $9.25 each!

    Charmin Ultra-Soft 328-sheet 18 rolls: $16.98 on walmart. Jet doesn't have an "18-pack" but a "16-pack" is $18.81. Amazon: $30.52 for 24 Mega Rolls vs. $22.64 for the walmart equivalent on a per-roll basis and $28.22 for Jet.

    Maxwell House 18-count decaf K-cups: Not available on Jet but Jet has (only) a 12-pack of regular Maxwell House K-cups for $6.24 vs. $6.82 at walmart. Amazon: $6.82 as an "add-on item."

    Bounty Select-a-Size 12 Mega Rolls: $15.97 at walmart vs. $19.88 at Jet. (Jet offers it as 8 "Huge Rolls" which is the same as 12 "Mega Rolls.") Amazon: $29.89 for 12 "Huge Rolls" which is the equivalent (on a per-roll basis) of $20.03 vs. the other two.

    As word of this gets out (assuming that walmart doesn't jack up its prices) and as walmart continues to build its dedicated fulfillment centers and improve the web site (remember, it now has several thousand Silicon Valley programmers dedicated to that), Amazon will be CRUSHED.
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors roundup: Gigafactory and Fremont plant hit higher gear [View news story]
    >>"We continue to expect the X launch sometime in September and would expect investor optimism to grow into this launch,"...<<

    Yes, because it will be such a surprise. Are there any sell-side analysts around any more who are over the age of 35 (i.e., who were in the business in 1999-2000)? Clearly there are very few TSLA holders who were-- "14 moving parts in a Tesla Ron Baron" excepted.
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:46 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon Is Paving The Way To Profitability Through Prime [View article]
    walmart.com is CRUSHING Amazon on pricing (typically 20% cheaper on household goods) and is rolling out a $50/yr 2-3 day delivery membership. As word gets out about this, Amazon profitability will become ever more elusive.
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla owners' love for their cars implies bright future, Jefferies says [View news story]
    I wonder if they'd feel the same loyalty if Tesla weren't bleeding thousands of dollars per car in valet warranty service. This is a nice example of an analyst confusing a "product/service" with a "viable business model."
    Jun 25, 2015. 05:55 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Pokes Tesla With Chevy Bolt Development Progress Report [View article]
    >>None of the upcoming BEV or PHEV models will cause any dent in Tesla's sales - they will be production constrained regardless.<<

    So even before most of the competing models are out you can get a new custom-ordered Tesla in 5 weeks and they're "production constrained"? You know, you remind me of someone... hmmm... Wait, I've got it! http://bit.ly/1n4w3Xw
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:13 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Amazon.com Without AWS Look Like? [View article]
    >>On the other hand, AMZN does not have an incentive to pretty up AWS at the cost of generating profits in places where taxes are high...<<

    You mean taxes on actual PROFITS??? Considering that's the last possible metric on which Bezos wants investors to focus, I think he'd gladly ignore income tax differentials if it allowed him to make AWS look better than it would if the rest of the company had an "arms length" relationship to it.
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Amazon.com Without AWS Look Like? [View article]
    >>I expect that what is motivating the bankers in part is that AWS will never look better and is likely soon to look a lot worse.<<

    Yes, EXACTLY-- here come the price wars and commoditization. And by the way, how much is the rest of AMZN overpaying/understating costs for AWS internally in order to sex up its numbers?
    Jun 24, 2015. 07:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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