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Logical Thought  

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  • Q2 Earnings Should Illustrate RadiSys Crossed A Meaningful Inflection Point [View article]
    I picked up a decent-sized chunk of this in the $2.50s over the past month-- in fact, on many of those days I think I was the primary buyer. In addition to the excellent points raised in this article, keep in mind that the company on an EV basis is selling for only around 0.5x revenue and has such a massive amount of NOL carryforwards and tax credits that it will be operating practically tax-free for a very long time.
    Jul 25, 2015. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Yen - Caution Is Warranted In Pressing Short Bets [View article]
    No matter what Kuroda jawbones (which can certainly move the yen in the very short-term) the BOJ is printing 35% of its monetary base every year: http://bit.ly/1JANQUn

    In light of this, do you have a fundamental reason why-- over time-- the yen will strengthen vs. the dollar (assuming no massive US QE4)?
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vulnerable Is Amazon To A New Attack On 'Prime' From Jet.com? [View article]
    No one is saying "Jet is a better investment than Amazon" (although from current price levels Wal-Malt definitely is). Jet & Wal-Mart are just two more great examples of why AMZN will never be able to raise prices enough to make any money. You and the other bubble-chasing Amazonians love to talk about your stock going up but clam up instantly when asked for the fundamental justification behind that-- I saw this in 2000 (when AMZN went down 95% from peak to trough) and again in 2008 (when it went down 75%). The only thing that keeps this company's market cap afloat is a general equity market bubble so that's what you're betting on, and even in one of THOSE speculators eventually lose interest in story-stocks where the story never translates into real profits. Good luck.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vulnerable Is Amazon To A New Attack On 'Prime' From Jet.com? [View article]
    >>Actually, I did, for the quantity I need.<<

    Well something must've changed since I used Jet last week, because back then Jet was even cheaper than walmart.
    Jul 22, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vulnerable Is Amazon To A New Attack On 'Prime' From Jet.com? [View article]
    >>BUT, it usually even with Walmart.com (to the penny).<<

    I think you're not subtracting Jet's "add to cart extra savings"-- it shows under the price and gets bigger the more quantity you buy.
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Proof That AWS Will Struggle In Amazon.com's Earnings Report Tomorrow [View article]
    Don't forget the drones-- they're worth at least $40 billion of that gain!
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:51 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen And The Monetization Of Debt [View article]
    So you think you can increase the supply of something (in this case yen) by 35% a year (the amount the BOJ is printing vs. the monetary base) without driving down its value? Good luck. And if the economy does improve somewhat, what happens to interest rates there vs. the massive (245% of GDP) government debt?

    Japan is trapped and will ultimately default either outright or via massive inflation.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: UBS' Reality Check Could Mark A Turning Point [View article]
    >> I'm sure it won't be long until they raise capital.<<

    Yes, agreed. I'm looking for a $2 billion equity deal with a week or two after they announce "earnings" (and I put that word in quotes for a reason).
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:31 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: UBS' Reality Check Could Mark A Turning Point [View article]
    If this really does mark a turning point, the best part of it will be how Musk blew his chance to raise capital at a stupidly high price. I'm sure he'll get a big "I told you so" from the departing CFO.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:17 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biotech Bubble Compared To The Dotcom Bubble [View article]
    There's a limited pool of money to pay for these six-figure drugs, especially the ones that aren't permanent "cures." At some point (long before enough of them are out there to justify the sector's current valuation) the tap will run dry. The hep-C guys are like the first guys in the gold mine-- there will be a lot less left for the guys who show up later.
    Jul 19, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful, AWS Could Disappoint Amazon.com Shareholders Next Week [View article]
    >>...as Amazon itself is by far the largest customer it can basically pay AWS whatever it wants to make the numbers look impressive.<<

    After speaking with a smart CFO, I stand partially corrected on this: according to GAAP the revenue Amazon breaks out for AWS is all external. However, Amazon DOES allocate AWS's expenses between Amazon itself and its external customers and THAT'S the leeway it has to make AWS profitability look better or worse.
    Jul 18, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorting Out The Spin From Amazon's Prime Day [View article]
    >Well I certainly have no idea but would seem "logical" that no one else can compete with Amazon on price.<<

    Try jet.com (when it officially opens) or the newly revamped walmart.com-- they're both way cheaper than Amazon on most household goods and offer free shipping on orders of $35 or more.
    Jul 17, 2015. 06:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorting Out The Spin From Amazon's Prime Day [View article]
    Maybe you can help me with something here: Amazon has terrible operating margins (less than 2%) AND loses money on its Prime customers. So why is it a GOOD thing to have a day that combines massive margin-slashing price cuts with hundreds of thousands of new Prime customers? Is this the long-lost (since March 2000) Wall Street logic that the more ways your company can lose money, the higher its stock price should be?

    Thanks in advance for your explanation!
    Jul 17, 2015. 05:40 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful, AWS Could Disappoint Amazon.com Shareholders Next Week [View article]
    Yes, it was down 600bp from the previous year and only 13% using pro-rata stock-based comp, and as Amazon itself is by far the largest customer it can basically pay AWS whatever it wants to make the numbers look impressive.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful, AWS Could Disappoint Amazon.com Shareholders Next Week [View article]
    >>I immediately expressed my approval of AWS's performance, arguing that it could very well be worth $85 billion...<<

    Could you please provide some actual math behind this assumption, keeping in mind the steeply declining year-over-year operating margin for AWS, as well as the raging price war being launched by Google and Oracle and Microsoft? I mean real-world math, not sell-side analyst "let's get on the cover for the IPO" math... Thanks.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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