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Logical Thought

 
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  • Why Toymakers Are Leaving Mattel In The Dust [View article]
    >>Mattel's branding has struggled as Barbie dolls have been accused of setting unrealistic body image standards for young girls.<<

    I call those standards ASPIRATIONAL... I mean, am I supposed to quit tennis just because I can't serve like Federer?
    Jan 30, 2015. 05:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    The cost of carry on JGBD has been tracking at a bit under 2%/year... it's easier for me than trading the futures in Tokyo or London and worrying about periodically rolling them over.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    @slevental,

    Try reading the prospectus-- it's monthly balanced and-- unlike you-- I've done the homework on tracking its performance vs. the bond. Don't use it-- I really don't care!
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    @slevental,

    If you email me (my address is on my profile) I'll send you the study I did in December tracking the ETN's performance vs. the bond since its inception three years ago.
    Jan 29, 2015. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    I bought a chunk of Sangoma (not Sangamo, which is a biotech company) a few months ago (before it announced the acquisitions) because it was a 67% gross margin company selling for just 0.3x revenue and 3x EBITDA. However, it just bought a couple of companies which raise the EV-to-revenue metric to around 0.5x (still damn cheap considering the gross margin) but leave the EBITDA multiple a question mark because the acquisitions' EBITDA wasn't announced. So if I didn't own any I'd still buy it here, but I won't add to my position until the company reveals more about those acquisitions.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    New crude tanker truck production is cyclical, and until recently they were 100% tied into that cycle. As I wrote in the article, the game-plan now though is to develop the crude retrofit market and the "lateral markets" (chemical, aviation & waste oil tanker trucks as well as stationary storage tanks-- the latter of which I forgot to mention in the article) in order to pick up any slack from the next downturn in new crude tanker construction. One thing that MAY offset a chunk of that down cycle, by the way, is the new safety standards for crude railcars that will pull many of them offline for two-year retrofits, which thus may require more crude truck tankers.

    Then by this time next year (or maybe sooner) they should be selling their new gauges into the huge market for refined fuels. So thanks to all that I don't think they should have more than a couple of "oil price-related down-quarters" before growth can accelerate again; meanwhile, even if they never grew from here it would be an obvious strategic buyout candidate at 2x the price.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    The fact that there's almost NOTHING out there that's cheap tells you how much of a bubble this market is in. I can own TLA (and even smaller STC.V in Canada-- although I'd like more details about the acquisitions it just made) because I don't worry about liquidity-- if they're cheap enough I'll buy them by sitting on a bid over many months and then hold them until they reach fair value, even if it takes a few years. A very big position for me right now is the opposite extreme, in that it's as "macro" as you can get: JGBD, an ETN that's 3x inverse to the Japanese 10-year bond which currently trades at around 30bp. As far as I'm concerned, for a patient investor there's no more asymmetrical trade than shorting a 10-year bond @30bp from a completely bankrupt country printing 10 trillion yen a month to buy its own debt. (I'm also short the yen.) If the yield goes to "zero" you lose very little and yet when it goes to 12% in a flash and they have to overnight haircut it by 50% you'll make a lot.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    I originally found this via a scan of some sort (I don't remember the parameters) and have owned it since 2013 at an original basis of around .80/share. Then following last week's earnings report I added a bunch right where it is now, @ $1.18 - $1.20.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Logix May Be The Cheapest Stock In North America [View article]
    One additional risk here is the USD/CAD exchange rate exposure, although if the Canadian dollar does continue to decline (thereby lowering the stock price in terms of US dollars) the effect should be at least partially offset by increased profits for Titan, as US sales have recently comprised a bit over 50% of its revenue.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Are Safe Because Uber Will Implode [View article]
    >>The number of NYC Medallions has been fixed at its current level since 1930, and that is what has sustained its rise over the decades.<<

    Actually, that's not exactly correct. Here's the explanation from Wikipedia:

    >>In 1937, Mayor Fiorello H. La Guardia signed the Haas Act which introduced official taxi licenses and the medallion system that remains in place today. The law limited the total number of cab licenses to 16,900, but the number dwindled to 11,787 licenses over the next six decades until 1996 when the TLC added 133 new licenses bringing the total to 11,920. Since 1996, more medallions have been added to the fleet bringing the total number of cab licenses to 13,237 as of 2009.<<

    So prices soared from 1996 despite roughly 12% more medallions and (until very recently) more expensive gasoline and metered rates that I think (but am not sure) haven't kept pace with inflation, as well as the addition of "green car" medallions for the outer boroughs. My theory is that it became kind of an "immigrant asset bubble" that's now being popped by Uber and its similar competitors.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Are Safe Because Uber Will Implode [View article]
    >>I do not believe owners would ever walk away. A house is not a way one makes his living, but a taxi is.<<

    Do you understand the concept of being upside down in an asset that's in a downward price spiral?
    Jan 26, 2015. 09:49 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Are Safe Because Uber Will Implode [View article]
    I wouldn't get long TAXI but I don't know if it's a short either. They do other kinds of lending too and I just don't have enough experience analyzing financial companies to feel that I'm getting an edge "penetrating the black box." FWIW, I met the President (Andrew Murstein) once back in '07 when I was a banker and he seemed like a good guy-- at least not visibly oozing slime like some of the other CEOs I've met, lol.
    Jan 26, 2015. 09:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Are Safe Because Uber Will Implode [View article]
    The New York City Taxi commission requires only the following amount of insurance, which is CONSIDERABLY LESS than that provided by Uber:

    $200,000 per person
    $100,000 minimum liability and not less than $300,000 maximum liability for bodily injury or death
    (Source: http://bit.ly/1tfP9DS)

    And if the price of medallions keeps declining to the point where the owners are "upside down" in their equity they most certainly WILL walk away, the same way people did with houses (and it's a lot easier to walk away from a medallion than a house).

    I have no position here but as an NYC resident find the whole thing fascinating, as the appreciation in the value of taxi medallions always struck me as unsustainable (although I never knew what would finally kill it). On the other hand I think the $40 billion valuation of Uber-- based on the recent financing rounds-- is an absolute joke. If THAT company were public I'd definitely short it.
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:21 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining Real Household Income Calls Continued U.S. Economic Growth Into Question [View article]
    This is a good article about something I've been talking about for years. I call it "the international fungibility of labor" and it explains why so many people in the U.S. will experience wage pressure until foreign wages reach a point where it no longer pays to export U.S. jobs. The thing that astounds me is that the "geniuses" on the Fed seemingly CAN'T see this and instead are "puzzled" as to why U.S. wage growth isn't happening. I don't know what the right solution is for this problem (and maybe there's none-- the author's suggestion of "regulatory tariffs" may hurt as many people as it helps) but it sure as hell isn't "print more money."
    Jan 25, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Tesla Math, Is The Jeep Brand Worth $100 Billion? [View article]
    This is a great way to point out the complete and total absurdity of TSLA's bubble-stock valuation.

    P.S. Tesla doesn't have a PRAYER of selling 500,000 cars in 2020-- in fact, JPM just cut its forecast to 180,000... How many more billions will the company burn on THAT? It'll get real entertaining when the capital markets shut on this non-business.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:17 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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