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  • Elon Musk's Statement On Chinese Scalpers Contradict Tesla Spokesman [View article]
    I just checked Wikipedia and English is in fact the native language of Zimbabwe; hence your response surprises me. In fact, Musk claimed that as of September 30th they had absolutely no cars left to sell. Seeing as the incredible deals on those 2300 reported leftovers began soon after the D was introduced in early-October, are you insinuating that within two weeks of the end of the quarter the company had suddenly produced 2000 unsold leftovers? If you do believe that, you're "the guy born every minute" who SHOULD be holding shares of TSLA. However, please don't despair as the air continues to leak out of your bubble-stock: behind your "writer's voice" I hear quite a refined Continental accent, and am thus certain that a more successful investor with a desire to impress his guests would happily take you into a forward-facing position of domestic servitude!
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:50 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk's Statement On Chinese Scalpers Contradict Tesla Spokesman [View article]
    I rarely even bother reading your comments Cecil, but as this one was directly under mine I happened to see it. Whether or not R&D is included in Tesla's gross margin is only important to me in as much as it represents yet more deception from Tesla management, which despite NOT including it favorably compares its gross margin to an industry that DOES include it. And your comment about "pre-paid R&D" is simply laughable, in that massive R&D *never* stops in the auto industry. Last year alone VW Group spent $13.5 billion on R&D and Toyota spent $9.1 billion: http://bit.ly/1bFhPPa

    Now go back to Africa, oppress some natives and name a country after yourself... It's what you do best!
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:33 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk's Statement On Chinese Scalpers Contradict Tesla Spokesman [View article]
    >>If Tesla weren't busy actually accomplishing things that no one else could, they would probably sue all of you for libel.<<

    If Tesla sued me for libel, in discovery I'd compare all internal sales data to the concurrent public statements from Musk, particularly relative to this episode: http://bit.ly/1EJ2Mk4 but also at other recent times, as I believe it would demonstrate a clear pattern of lying about the strength of demand. In fact, all communication between Musk and his recently demoted worldwide VP of sales would be particularly illuminating.

    Furthermore, I would examine all internal corporate communication to determine when Musk learned of the large Chinese inventory and the resellers, as we know he adamantly denied such knowledge on the Q3 call and didn't admit to it until just a few days ago.

    In fact, it would be quite fascinating to compare all of Musk's myriad public statements with what was simultaneously happening "behind closed doors," as I believe it would demonstrate a consistent pattern of deception regarding the strength of demand for the Model S.

    This is why Tesla won't be suing anyone for libel, but it really won't matter because if the stock keeps going down swarms of ambulance chasing securities lawyers will come out of the woodwork and conduct that investigation anyway, as might the SEC.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:52 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk's Statement On Chinese Scalpers Contradict Tesla Spokesman [View article]
    On the Q3 conference call on November 6th, 2014 the following exchange took place:

    >>John Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch: "... how do you get comfortable with selling vehicles to resellers in China that presumably don't have your best interest in mind or promoting the brand?"

    Elon Musk: "We're not really selling to resellers anywhere in the world. So it may be possible that someone's claiming that they're a reseller of Tesla, this is a false claim."

    John Lovallo: "Okay. I'm just saying because when I looked on T-Mall for instance the first two lines of cars or first two rows of cars were actually all resellers or listed as resellers as least."

    Elon Musk: "Thanks for telling us that. We will make sure that is removed."<<

    **********************...

    It's now almost five months since that call and Musk just admits this TODAY??? This is just another example (of many) of how untrustworthy that guy is. Fortunately, it appears that the lazy institutional investors who had previously bought into his bs hook, line and sinker have finally caught on and started dumping this bubble-stock.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:48 PM | 37 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    >>No one is even trying to produce generic Renvela in the U.S.<<

    Try the bottom of p.4: http://1.usa.gov/19mb6b2

    And I suspect that as Teva and Synthon are already selling it in Europe they've got FDA applications in too. Okay, I'm done responding to you now. So you stay long and I'll stay short and let's reconvene at the end of the year.
    Mar 25, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    I already gave you the full 12-week data: 43.9% (Auryxia) vs. 24.2 for GI events. But hey, you shouldn't be wasting your time on me-- you should be out yacht shopping for when those scripts pull the "hockey stick."

    P.S. Renvela could get FDA generic approval any time now-- it's already had it in Europe since last year: http://bit.ly/1FI6Q3M That will be another nail in the coffin of this stock's price.
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Here's a link to the abstract pointing you to where you can get the full trial paper. Unfortunately you'll have to pay $27 for it (as we did), but that should be no problem considering the yachts and private jets you'll have when this company is bought for $1000/share, right? http://bit.ly/19lYXCX
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    >>I lost a sister from the lack of effective ,safe treatment for her hyperphosphatemia before Aurexia was available. My sister Georgette was a Registered nurse on dialysis and preferred to die rather than continue with the GI problems that she suffered from taking the then available drugs for hyperphosphatemia.<...

    Sorry about your sister doc, but guess what? The active control in the Auryxia P3 trial was Renvela (sevelamer). Now let me help you with a little quote from the trial results:

    "After randomization, more subjects on ferric citrate (Auryxia) discontinued the study drug compared with the active control, notably in the first weeks of the study, most commonly because of GI nonserious adverse events (AEs)."

    In other words, if your sister couldn't tolerate Renvela it's extremely unlikely she would have been able to tolerate Auryxia.

    >>One IV iron is enough to make the author shut up and go make a living elsewhere.<<

    You make your living your way and I'll keep making mine by buying cheap stocks and selling overpriced ones, okay?
    Mar 25, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    I didn't say 2015 revenue would be $5 million; I said that's the current annualized run-rate. I'd guess that peak U.S. sales of Auryxia might be $40-$50 million/year in a few years before tailing off again. With 104 million shares already outstanding and more to be sold to cover future burn, that would generously make KERX worth somewhere in the $2s or $3s inclusive of some royalties from Japan.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Each script is for a bottle of 200 pills that retails in the $700s, so I guessed a wholesale price of $600: http://bit.ly/1HyQZSt

    The dosage is six to twelve pills a day so if the average were 9 then the average person would use 3285 pills/year = 16 bottles = around $12,000 at retail. But each bottle requires a prescription and counts as one of the 150 sold that week.
    Mar 24, 2015. 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    150 TRx x 52 = 7800 x $600 (est. wholesale price) = $4.7 million.

    (On the bright side, maybe your golf scores are ALSO a lot lower than you thought they were!)
    Mar 24, 2015. 05:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Sorry, that's "12-week" not "12-day."
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    There's no "twisting." The 12-day GI adverse event differential between the two was huge (again, 43.9 vs. 24.2) and I'm theorizing that may be making people not refill their prescriptions. We'll find out soon enough, won't we?
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    You're confusing "serious" adverse events with "adverse" events. The combined 12-week number for both (for GI issues) was 43.9% for Auryxia. But here's the thing: under clinical guidelines up to four diarrheas a day is considered "non-serious." Outside of the pressure of a clinical trial that could easily be enough to get someone to drop a drug.
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Why stop there? How long until we get to a trillion?
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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