S&P 1800: The Great Rotation Is Real [View article]
I posed something similar to Michael Shedlock (who was quoting Hussman) several years ago and he just ignored it. (Since then I've ignored Shedlock.) I don't have Hussman's email address but I do notice that he signed that article "John P. Hussman, Ph.D." That "Ph.D." part is kind of a yellow flag to me right there, lol (not so much because he earned the degree as because he feels it necessary to let us know about it).
Exactly. This author's claim that "We waited a long time and... inflation did not appear" requires one to define "long time." Even more laughably, the guy is STILL printing $85 billion a month. Are the several weeks between the most recent $85 billion and "today" considered "a long time" now?
Bernanke is supposed to be the steward of the U.S. economy for generations to come, rather than running things like a politician who's up for annual reelection. Before declaring victory, let's see how much "rain" his "cloud seeding" creates down the road.
Better yet, you should have listened to him in 2002 when he said that the Fed needed to create a housing bubble. (And then of course you should have STOPPED listening to him, as I don't recall his ever telling you that it was time to sell.)
S&P 1800: The Great Rotation Is Real [View article]
I really haven't looked for "evidence" but it seems pretty common-sensical to me.
Additionally, I've never understood the people who gainsay (35 years after I took my SATs, I finally get to use "gainsay" in a sentence!) the "money on the sidelines" theory. Let's say my cash is in a money-market fund that buys overnight commercial paper. One morning I redeem that paper to buy stocks, thereby driving up the value of the stock market (as prices are set on the margin), and the people who sold me those stocks use their money to buy other stocks. (In other words, no money leaves the stock market and I just added to what was already there.) Meanwhile the corporation that was using my money overnight to fund its business now funds itself by getting extended credit terms from its suppliers, or maybe offers an enticing enough interest rate to get a working capital line from a bank; i.e., the bank creates new money by lending it. So how did my "money on the sidelines" not drive up stock prices?
Is The Art Market A Bubble That's About To Burst? Maybe Not... [View article]
tallguyz,
This is definitely NOT an argument for buying BID-- just a suggestion that one think twice about shorting it (yet). However, to your point specifically: Sotheby's is an auction house, so it's completely agnostic as to WHAT super-rich people are willing to overpay for, as whatever it is, Sotheby's will be selling it and getting its cut. This company is much more dependent on the overall state of the economy than it is on what particular kind of art is "hot," as when stocks crash even billionaires (and especially FORMER billionaires) tend to curb their spending in the artistic stratosphere. Thus, I wouldn't short BID until it either gets a lot pricier or a market crash seems like a high probability.
Broadwind Energy Could Be Set For A 'Towering' 2014 [View article]
"It's Getting 'Windy' Again in Illinois": http://tinyurl.com/kfe... From the linked article: "...wind technology is becoming more efficient. "The towers are getting taller..."
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
Thanks... Although I've written a number of yen-oriented comments here on SA, I don't think I've tweeted anything about the yen. Most of the few tweets I've done so far have been about:
a) Some stocks I own and the SA articles I've written about them
b) My disgust with our Federal Reserve and President, and (and much more importantly)...
Yes, the Teslarians are hilarious... They remind me of the passionately defensive crowd in a scammy biotech stock just before the Phase 3 trial fails and the stock goes down 80%. (Not that TSLA's a scam-- it's just not a viable business.)
Gamestop: Negative Catalyst(s) Finally Emerging After Years Of Waiting For 52-Week High Darling [View article]
I'm not short NFLX (WAY too crowded), but unlike Barnes & Noble which has perpetually been PRICED for "technological obsolescence," NFLX has been priced for "technology of the far-flung future... here for you today!" In other words, it could be a buggy whip company priced like TSLA.
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
That's a ridiculous statement as all those things need to be paid for and Japan's government is broke. Yes, they have some foreign reserves but the current rate of deficit spending would burn through those in just a few years, by which time debt to GDP will be over 240%. Obviously you're Chinese and thus don't like Japan, but even if you loved Japan it wouldn't make a difference, as it's insolvent and there's nothing it can do but default.
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
Ben Gee,
You keep writing things like this as if Japan will have a choice. Sure, it could default on that debt today, but it won't. Instead the BOJ will keep printing yen in order to try to hold down those rates. Eventually the inflation this causes will be unbearable, and THEN Japan will default on its debt (perhaps via some kind of crazy restructuring), but I don't think this will happen until USD/JPY 200+.
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
Here are the unemployment rates as of December in each year; the middle of the decade was pretty awful:
1970: 6.1%
1971: 6.0%
1972: 5.2%
1973: 4.9%
1974: 7.2%
1975: 8.2%
1976: 7.8%
1977: 6.4%
1978: 6.0%
1979: 6.0%
http://1.usa.gov/Kv8U2r
S&P 1800: The Great Rotation Is Real [View article]
S&P 1800: The Great Rotation Is Real [View article]
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
Bernanke is supposed to be the steward of the U.S. economy for generations to come, rather than running things like a politician who's up for annual reelection. Before declaring victory, let's see how much "rain" his "cloud seeding" creates down the road.
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
S&P 1800: The Great Rotation Is Real [View article]
Additionally, I've never understood the people who gainsay (35 years after I took my SATs, I finally get to use "gainsay" in a sentence!) the "money on the sidelines" theory. Let's say my cash is in a money-market fund that buys overnight commercial paper. One morning I redeem that paper to buy stocks, thereby driving up the value of the stock market (as prices are set on the margin), and the people who sold me those stocks use their money to buy other stocks. (In other words, no money leaves the stock market and I just added to what was already there.) Meanwhile the corporation that was using my money overnight to fund its business now funds itself by getting extended credit terms from its suppliers, or maybe offers an enticing enough interest rate to get a working capital line from a bank; i.e., the bank creates new money by lending it. So how did my "money on the sidelines" not drive up stock prices?
S&P 1800: The Great Rotation Is Real [View article]
Is The Art Market A Bubble That's About To Burst? Maybe Not... [View article]
This is definitely NOT an argument for buying BID-- just a suggestion that one think twice about shorting it (yet). However, to your point specifically: Sotheby's is an auction house, so it's completely agnostic as to WHAT super-rich people are willing to overpay for, as whatever it is, Sotheby's will be selling it and getting its cut. This company is much more dependent on the overall state of the economy than it is on what particular kind of art is "hot," as when stocks crash even billionaires (and especially FORMER billionaires) tend to curb their spending in the artistic stratosphere. Thus, I wouldn't short BID until it either gets a lot pricier or a market crash seems like a high probability.
Broadwind Energy Could Be Set For A 'Towering' 2014 [View article]
From the linked article: "...wind technology is becoming more efficient. "The towers are getting taller..."
(Broadwind's headquarters is in Illinois.)
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
a) Some stocks I own and the SA articles I've written about them
b) My disgust with our Federal Reserve and President, and (and much more importantly)...
C) Hilarious re-tweets from Albert Brooks!
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
Tesla's First Red Flag [View article]
Gamestop: Negative Catalyst(s) Finally Emerging After Years Of Waiting For 52-Week High Darling [View article]
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
Japan Creates A Negative Feedback Loop In JGBs And Yen [View article]
You keep writing things like this as if Japan will have a choice. Sure, it could default on that debt today, but it won't. Instead the BOJ will keep printing yen in order to try to hold down those rates. Eventually the inflation this causes will be unbearable, and THEN Japan will default on its debt (perhaps via some kind of crazy restructuring), but I don't think this will happen until USD/JPY 200+.