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Logical Thought  

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  • Tesla Acquires Surprising New Allies: Traditional Auto Dealers [View article]
    Lol, yes, VW is completely out of the picture:

    P.S. That's now two months old. It has subsequently been indicated that within three years VW, Audi and Porsche will EACH have a fully electric SUV and EACH have a fully electric luxury sedan, while VW will also have a less expensive fully electric Jetta, Passat or Golf.

    But other than that, VW's out of the picture!
    Nov 25, 2015. 10:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen Refuses To Go Down Without A Fight [View article]
    To keep this in perspective, even without further expanding QE the BOJ is still printing around 30% of the monetary base per year. I thus think the yen is in a "slowly boiling frog" situation-- the warm water feels good until it's too late:
    Nov 25, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Examining The Bull Case [View article]
    The new charging networks being rolled out are covered (and linked) in my letter. If you're not afraid of the truth, feel free to request it.
    Nov 24, 2015. 03:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Examining The Bull Case [View article]
    Bottom line: there's no "moat" here and a massive looming onslaught of competition in cars, batteries, charging and autonomous driving capability proves it. I have a long, link-filled (i.e., well substantiated) paragraph in my monthly fund letter that lays out the case quite clearly. If you're interested, email me (the address is on my profile) and I'd be happy to send that section of the letter to you.
    Nov 24, 2015. 03:14 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Prices Model X From $81,200 To $151,450 [View article]
    >>"Whether they can get it in enough volume to make the car viable remains to be seen."
    That has already been demonstrated with the S.<<

    Lol, so your definition of "viable" is hundreds of millions of dollars of negative operational cash flow each quarter? Stay long, my friend!
    Nov 24, 2015. 09:26 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Prices Model X From $81,200 To $151,450 [View article]
    Almost every luxury auto maker prices its premium SUV considerably cheaper than its premium sedan. For instance, the Mercedes GL starts at around $65,000 (with 7-passenger seating included, by the way) vs. $95,000 for the S-Class, and the Porsche Cayenne starts at $58,000 vs. $78,000 for the Panamera.

    With an SUV priced $5000 to $7500 MORE than the Model S on a battery & equipment comparable basis (and starting at $80,000 with just 220 miles of range and no options), Tesla is consigning itself to a relatively low-volume niche with this vehicle.

    And yes, there's a $7500 US tax credit (until Tesla sells its 200,000th cumulative vehicle), but any of those other SUVs can easily be bought for 7-10% off sticker, so those two factors balance each other out.
    Nov 24, 2015. 06:49 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Struggling Online Business Is A Big Concern [View article]
    Wal-Mart has free delivery on orders over $50, and here in Manhattan they arrive within two to seven days. For the two-day Amazon delivery you're paying more for the products plus the Prime membership fee. I have both (using Prime when I'm in a hurry), but I'm rarely in a hurry for paper towels, detergent, toilet paper, cleaning supplies etc., and that's when I use Wal-Mart.
    Nov 20, 2015. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Struggling Online Business Is A Big Concern [View article]
    I use on household goods ALL the time as it's way cheaper (like 20% or so) than Amazon on almost everything. (For more esoteric stuff you still need Amazon.) Sure, the web site is more "bare bones" than Amazon's, but if you're just buying detergent or paper towels, who cares? The problem is that Wal-Mart isn't promoting it right-- it needs to run a big ad campaign saying "We're cheaper than Amazon on almost everything." I don't know why it doesn't do this.
    Nov 20, 2015. 06:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Tesla Order 2,500 Danish License Plates? [View article]
    Congratulations! That's the longest financial statement-related post I've ever seen from someone who clearly has no understanding of them!

    P.S. There are lots of competing cars entering the market in the next 12 to 36 months that were designed as EVs from the ground up-- the Bolt of course, but also models from Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW, Porsche, Jaguar, Aston Martin and Nissan, as well as one from Ford that I expect will be announced in January. And then of course there's Farraday, Apple, and several from the Chinese. But stay long and strong-- bubble stocks need reality-deniers like you!
    Nov 19, 2015. 08:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Just Print More Money? [View article]
    >>And that's not even the issue. What you can have is decades and decades of lower living standards that what you might have had...<<

    Yes, agreed. But eventually those conditions often end in a hyperinflationary collapse as politicians try to print their way out of the malaise.
    Nov 19, 2015. 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Just Print More Money? [View article]
    >>I think this talk about "collapse" is way overdone....<<

    Perhaps not in YOUR lifetime, but that's not what I'm talking about here. I'm talking about what we're leaving people 30 years from now. And oh, by the way, in addition to jhooper's response to your comment about how much debt we had coming out of WW2...

    1) Unlike today, the ratio of household debt to income was tiny, meaning consumers had plenty of pent-up buying power, and

    2) If you include our currrent unfunded Medicare liabilities the debt back then was nowhere close, and

    3) as jhooper wrote, the rest of the world was pretty much destroyed so U.S. industry had almost no competition.
    Nov 19, 2015. 03:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Just Print More Money? [View article]
    To jhooper's (mostly) fine and beautifully supported comments, I'll simply ask Cullen if he's okay with Japan's 250% (and growing) ratio of government debt to GDP?

    P.S. I never said that the U.S. is "on the verge of collapse"-- I said Japan is (and by "verge" it could be ten years, which is a meaningless amount of time for a country). At our present pace, the U.S. is probably 20 years behind Japan, so I'll say that without drastic fiscal changes we'll have a U.S. economic collapse within around 30 years.
    Nov 19, 2015. 03:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Tesla Order 2,500 Danish License Plates? [View article]
    >>Those who are shorting the stock in expectation of a massive selloff due to missing the guidance are going to be disappointed. I'd cut my losses.<<

    Nah, we're short the stock because it has a $40 billion fully diluted enterprise value with massive emerging competition and absolutely nothing sustainably proprietary while burning $2 billion a year and showing NEGATIVE SCALE in its so-called "business model." THAT'S why we're short the stock.
    Nov 19, 2015. 12:18 PM | 54 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Just Print More Money? [View article]

    Because this country now owes $18 trillion (a figure that will rapidly escalate with the unfunded Medicare liabilities), the borrowing capacity of the generation born today is hugely reduced; in other words, we've tied their hands. I'm not sure why this isn't obvious to you-- every society in history that continued to pile on debt eventually suffered economic (and often political) collapse from it (as Japan inevitably will, in one form or another), and yet if today's newly born have to NOT pile on debt so as to avoid that collapse and instead reduce their living standards, it will be because we "pre-indebted" them. Again, this seems incredibly obvious to me.
    Nov 19, 2015. 08:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Not Just Print More Money? [View article]
    You're throwing up a red herring argument there, in that of course you wouldn't say that it's "always good". But you think it would be really good now, don't you? So what if you screw over your kids and grandkids-- let THEM deal with YOUR spending on top of the $18 trillion in debt-- before YOUR unfunded Medicare liabilities-- that you're leaving them already, right? How long do all those roads you want to borrow from future generations to repair today last, Cullen? I'd say just long enough for someone born today to inherit your debt and have to pay to fix them all over again by the time he's 30. You want to fix infrastructure? Great. Do it with user fees and not on the backs of people still unborn or in nursery school. The latter is the epitome of "me generation" selfishness.
    Nov 18, 2015. 08:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment