Seeking Alpha

Logical Thought

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Logical Thought's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Tesla: Elon Musk Unveils Secret 2015 Margin Target [View article]
    >>I must have missed all the people at Telsa dumping all their shares.<<

    Maybe you weren't looking hard enough (or at all):
    http://1.usa.gov/13GPS3l

    Or did you literally mean that you missed seeing "ALL" the people dumping "ALL" their shares? You're not Elon himself parsing those words, are you?
    Sep 18 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    No one's "waiting"-- Google around and check out the upcoming competitive landscape. And LG, Samsung, SK Innovation, Panasonic (for all its non-Tesla customers) and the Chinese can and will ramp battery capacity in line with demand the same way Tesla will.
    Sep 18 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    >>Of course should a manufacture like BMW go that route they would be deliberately shooting their very successful ICE 3-Series in the head.<<

    This is a silly argument that I've refuted many times before. In case you hadn't noticed, BMW (or any other auto manufacturer) doesn't own a single oil well or gas station (or their dealerships) so if electric cars truly are more reliable (certainly not Teslas so far, but that's another story) then what they lose on parts sales they'll make up on warranty cost savings, and then they'll make up the parts sales all over again when they sell a big fat replacement battery one day. And all that aside, they'd certainly rather sell an electric car to an electric car customer than lose the sale altogether.

    As for Molli's comment about battery supply, Google "LG" and see what it's doing. Tesla is going to ramp up the gigafactory gradually in line with demand, and as (if?) demand materializes plenty of competitors will be doing the same thing. The only monopoly Musk has is on media attention, but that will fade as the press gets bored with his schtick.
    Sep 18 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Elon Musk Unveils Secret 2015 Margin Target [View article]
    >>Dead or Alive? Roasted or Fried?<<

    Lol, the funniest line of the week!
    Sep 18 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Elon Musk Unveils Secret 2015 Margin Target [View article]
    >>I refuse to give Rupert Murdoch (the owner of Faux "news") a penny, so I can't read that WSJ article.<<

    Lol, that's exactly how I am with the New York Times!
    Sep 18 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    >>So, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates because the present situation doesn't call for it.<<

    Sure there is. Any time you set rates below the rate of inflation you get a gross misallocation of capital which causes even bigger problems down the road. The Fed is supposed to be a politically independent organization that's the "trustee" for the U.S. economy for generations to come; instead it runs policy like a team of two-bit political hacks up for reelection on the third Wednesday of each month.
    Sep 18 10:19 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Hilsenrath is a nice guy, but when it comes to the Fed he's a kneepad-wearer who never asks a tough question.
    Sep 18 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Your "bond comparator" presupposes that bonds aren't in a bubble when actually-- based on the long-term solvency of almost the entire developed world-- they are.
    Sep 18 10:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Commerce Solution For Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Almost all the household stuff I used to get on-line from Amazon I now get from Wal-Mart as it's almost always much cheaper and Wal-Mart's free shipping for orders over $50 is excellent-- here in Manhattan the products often arrive the next day or within two days.

    This is the primary reason why AMZN will never come close to making the profits it would need to justify its egregious market cap; i.e., it has no pricing power.
    Sep 18 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Elon Musk Unveils Secret 2015 Margin Target [View article]
    slevental,

    The guy will gradually lose credibility (at least from an "investing standpoint," which is what counts to institutional investors) and I'll simply sit here while he does.
    Sep 18 09:20 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Elon Musk Unveils Secret 2015 Margin Target [View article]
    >>This statement is likely to disappoint the bears for several reasons. First, Musk suggests that model X will ship as expected next year...<<

    If you don't mind my asking, which bear claimed that the Model X *won't* ship next year? The real question is, will it be March or September? If we're talking about genuine, high-volume production, I'll bet it's the latter.

    >> In our base case valuation, we have a long-term non-GAAP margin of 16% for Tesla...<<

    Now this is fascinating, considering that Musk himself said he's targeting a 15% GROSS margin on the Model 3, and the Model 3 will have to comprise at least 80% of Tesla's volume. Just as a way of comparison, BMW has the highest standalone operating margins in the world at 11% on two million cars a year. In its last year as a standalone company, Porsche's operating margin-- adjusted for expensed engineering and R&D, which is how Tesla does it-- was around 12% and that was with an average selling price of $117,000 while Tesla's ASP is liable to be roughly HALF of that if you factor in the Model 3 priced where Musk claims he'll price it.
    Sep 18 08:54 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    >>They just need to steal some of the mid-range trendy sport sedan business from the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Jag, Audi, Infinity...<<

    Do you have any idea how incredibly competitive that market segment is? Here, I'll help you: http://bit.ly/1qheG7f

    And unlike today when the Model S is the only 200-mile electric car, by 2017 there will be a myriad of them and the ones from BMW, Nissan, Audi, GM, etc. will have pricing cross-subsidized by the profits in their conventional vehicles. So even if you turn out to be right and I turn out to be wrong (i.e., even if Tesla DOES manage to build and sell 400,000 Model 3s a year by 2020), it will make virtually NO money doing it and meanwhile you've got a company priced at $35 billion TODAY (long before you have a chance to find out if you're right and long before the additional tens of millions of shares of stock dilution that will take place between now and then). So (in the parlance of the biotech industry) I've got a huge number of "shots on goal" here while no one long this stock @ $35 billion in 2014 is coming CLOSE to being compensated for the massive number of risks and hurdles involved.
    Sep 18 06:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    That's a good (and interesting) find on the Model T production ramp. Although it was a far simpler car than those made today, it does shows that something similar was done before. However, that $345 price in 1916 (the 500,000-car year) is the equivalent of just $7500 today, and a 50%+ CAGR requires skyrocketing growth in both production AND demand, and the demand growth created by a price of $7500 is extremely different from that created by a price of $45,000 (which is where Musk will be lucky to be able to start the Model 3).
    Sep 17 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    Kurt,

    Okay, fair enough. I had no position then (and didn't until 2013) and thus forgot I made those comments. Email me your address and I'll send you $100 along with my apology.

    P.S. They are in fact hemmorhaging cash and never did sell that car for $50,000, so this is an excellent reminder of both the fallibility of my memory and-- more importantly-- of Musk's claims about his future products.
    Sep 17 10:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    >>Actually, Logical Thought posted the first of his over a thousand negative Tesla Motors comments here at Seeking Alpha over four years ago around the time of the $17 TSLA IPO.<<

    Hi Kurt,

    Pull up that link and I'll send you $100 in cash. Of course, after you CAN'T find it I hope you'll crawl back into the lying hole from whence you came. In actuality, I took the tiniest of initial short positions here last year in the high $90s and after averaging up have a current basis @ $201.
    Sep 17 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,351 Comments
13,831 Likes