The Trouble with Quantitatively Measured Hope [View article]
"Eight of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in December. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, index of consumer expectations, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), money supply* and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The average workweek of production workers and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in December."
"The largest positive contributor(s) – were interest rate spread (and) building permits..."
So if one believes that the spike in long rates was due to a fear of massive supply, rather than any economic strength (and rates came back down a bit this week, anyway, in a panic reaction to the dive in stocks), and that the housing permit increase was due to a soon-to-expire government tax credit, well, those two indicators become a lot less meaningful.
Indicators number three, four and five were "weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices (and) index of consumer expectations."
Whoops (initial claims rose this week), whoops (the stock market tanked) and whoops (the ABC consumer confidence index took a nosedive).
So, I wouldn't put any credence whatsoever in the accuracy of this report.
How to Kill a Rally, By Washington D.C. [View article]
You "kill a rally" when folks start to realize that stocks are priced for perfection, and perfection ain't happening and NEVER happens... If these latest news stories hadn't occurred, something else would've come along to (re)teach the market that one can't price stocks with no margin for error in an error-filled world.
Inflation vs. Deflation - The Great Debate [View article]
>>Japan’s ultra low interest rates are part of the problem not the solution... Saving not spending is a good and necessary response for overstretched households for a few years, but if they never get back to the shops and simply save, the economy never grows again.<<
Aren't you confusing "cause" and "effect" here? The low rates are not "part of the problem" but, rather, symptomatic of it. Wouldn't an ideal "solution" be if spending picked up while rates were able to remain low? After all, higher rates would just encourage MORE saving.
Will the 50-Day Moving Average Hold? [View article]
Sorry, Northern, but I don't agree with that. A moving average serves as a sort of "compass" for investors looking for a logical place to "take a stand" either as buyers or sellers, depending upon whether it's in a place of support or resistance. If buyers are lurking and looking for a place to get back in, the 50-day EMA is a good entry point, because they know that so many other people are watching it and willing to use it for the same purpose; i.e., it helps buyers combine their power to avoid the "catching a falling knife syndrome". I don't know whether or not it will initially hold this time (in an especially annoying twist, it was cleanly penetrated in November and then the market climbed back above it again), but before this year is halfway over, I think we're going to come damn close to revisiting the lows of July 2009, and thus won't be selling my SDS until we're down around 900 (unless the rally resumes and breaks into the high 1150s).
>>S&P 1105 (just below) - the first of 2 unresolved gaps in the S&P 500 chart.<<
Let's not forget the gaps around 1017 and 906, both of which will fill within the next four to six months. And yeah, I still see the 50-month EMA between 1150 and 1151 as possibly the final resistance for this rally, although it could be a multi-month topping process, kind of like the bounce (to the 50-month EMA) off the 2001 lows before the market set the ultimate lows in 2002.
Healthcare Stocks and Tuesday's Election [View article]
I think killing healthcare reform should be seen as NEGATIVE for big pharma, at least. After all, for $80 billion, they were going to get tens of millions of new customers in perpetuity.
NYT Metering Plan: Nine Quick Questions [View article]
>>...the Times thought TimesSelect would be more controllable than it was.<<
That's because only the Times itself and a handful of its kneejerk-left acolytes (nearly all of whom already subscribed) thought there were enough additional people out there willing to lay out cold, hard cash to read the useless musings of idiots like Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich.
P.S. I'm a political moderate who reads the Times daily-- just not the bulk of its opinion pages.
Warning Signs of 'Too Japanese to Fail' [View article]
When even a socially cohesive, "go along to get along" society such as Japan starts allowing equity holders to get wiped out in a major bankruptcy, you know that the next time the banks in a divisive place such as the US need a bailout, politics will ensure that the common shares wind up worthless (which is what should have happened the last time).
China Economic Update: Derailing the 'Through Train' [View article]
>>What can we read in the tea leaves from this decision? First, that Beijing is not worried about a bubble in the highly valued Shanghai stock market.<<
Is it possible that your interpretation of this is backwards, and that in fact Beijing *knows* it's a bubble, and thus is afraid that if capital is allowed to flow out of Shanghai into other markets, the bubble will burst?
The Trouble with Quantitatively Measured Hope [View article]
LEI for the U.S. increased in December. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest
positive contributor – were interest rate spread, building permits, average weekly initial claims for
unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, index of consumer expectations, index of
supplier deliveries (vendor performance), money supply* and manufacturers’ new orders for
nondefense capital goods*. The average workweek of production workers and manufacturers’
new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in December."
www.conference-board.o...
"The largest positive contributor(s) – were interest rate spread (and) building permits..."
So if one believes that the spike in long rates was due to a fear of massive supply, rather than any economic strength (and rates came back down a bit this week, anyway, in a panic reaction to the dive in stocks), and that the housing permit increase was due to a soon-to-expire government tax credit, well, those two indicators become a lot less meaningful.
Indicators number three, four and five were "weekly initial claims for
unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices (and) index of consumer expectations."
Whoops (initial claims rose this week), whoops (the stock market tanked) and whoops (the ABC consumer confidence index took a nosedive).
So, I wouldn't put any credence whatsoever in the accuracy of this report.
How to Kill a Rally, By Washington D.C. [View article]
Paul Krugman's 'The Accidental Theorist' Proves He's Almost Always Right [View article]
Inflation vs. Deflation - The Great Debate [View article]
Aren't you confusing "cause" and "effect" here? The low rates are not "part of the problem" but, rather, symptomatic of it. Wouldn't an ideal "solution" be if spending picked up while rates were able to remain low? After all, higher rates would just encourage MORE saving.
Will the 50-Day Moving Average Hold? [View article]
lol, you're bringing back fond memories... I haven't had a 50-day STD since my single days!
Will the 50-Day Moving Average Hold? [View article]
Housing Double Dip? [View article]
S&P 500 Ping Pong [View article]
Let's not forget the gaps around 1017 and 906, both of which will fill within the next four to six months. And yeah, I still see the 50-month EMA between 1150 and 1151 as possibly the final resistance for this rally, although it could be a multi-month topping process, kind of like the bounce (to the 50-month EMA) off the 2001 lows before the market set the ultimate lows in 2002.
Healthcare Stocks and Tuesday's Election [View article]
What's Wrong with Arthur Sulzberger Jr.? [View article]
NYT Metering Plan: Nine Quick Questions [View article]
That's because only the Times itself and a handful of its kneejerk-left acolytes (nearly all of whom already subscribed) thought there were enough additional people out there willing to lay out cold, hard cash to read the useless musings of idiots like Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich.
P.S. I'm a political moderate who reads the Times daily-- just not the bulk of its opinion pages.
Fund Manager Bullishness Could Be Warning Sign [View article]
And dare I suggest it, but Japan is actually and really starting to look interesting after 22 years! <<
Yes, especially if your "interest" lies in shorting its currency and government bonds.
Warning Signs of 'Too Japanese to Fail' [View article]
What the Yield Curve Is Telling Us About Financial Markets [View article]
China Economic Update: Derailing the 'Through Train' [View article]
Is it possible that your interpretation of this is backwards, and that in fact Beijing *knows* it's a bubble, and thus is afraid that if capital is allowed to flow out of Shanghai into other markets, the bubble will burst?