>>...the proof is the low consumer price inflation we've had for a whopping 5 years since massive quantitative easing started.<<
Aviator:
This is why I said that Bernanke (and by inclination you, although in the case of "you" I intend no pejorative attack) are not seeing beyond the tips of your noses. What do you think happens to the inflation rate when the velocity of all this newly created money picks up? What Bernanke is doing is the equivalent of massively seeing a bunch of clouds and then immediately looking out the window and saying "See, it's not raining yet." Why not carry your claim through to its "logical" conclusion and just have the government continue to overspend forever while Bernanke keeps printing more and more money to buy the debt?
We are in extremely dangerous territory with Bernanke's "experiment" and he has no idea how it will turn out. Like a physician, the steward of the U.S. economy should "first do no harm."
>>...substantial credit contraction has offset a lot of 'printing'<<
For NOW it has. Rather than doing what's best for the long-term economic future of this country, Bernanke-- who has the luxury of NOT having to run for reelection-- runs things with a perspective that doesn't go beyond the tip of his nose. But then, what could we expect from a Fed Chairman who in 2007 (!!!) said that the sub-prime crisis was "contained."
>>There is no diverting. You have bought into the "crowding out" fiction that is promoted ad nauseum for political ends.<<
You are confusing two different concepts: "money on the sidelines" when the supply of that money is fixed vs. *newly created money* chasing a fixed number of places to put it.
A Much Better Alternative For Cyprus [View article]
How much buying power do you think 100,000 euros would have if it were converted to some sort of Cypriot currency? I'm not defending the governments' plan (certainly not without first wiping out those banks' creditors and equity holders) but I'd rather have 85,000 euros than whatever I'd have post-conversion.
Of COURSE the Fed is "printing money." I will explain it quite simply:
Five years ago when the Treasury wanted to sell $85 billion of debt to obtain funds for the government to spend, the money to buy that debt would come out of the private sector and thus be diverted from other investments and/or purchases of goods and services. Now, however, that money is simply "created" by the Fed while that $85 billion in private sector money is still available to go into other investments and/or continue to purchase goods and services.
None of the "Pundit's" obfuscatory charts, graphs and Bernanke-worship changes this simple common sense fact.
Let the debtholders and other creditors (and equity owners, if there are any) of those banks get wiped out first-- privatized gains and socialized losses are bullshit. (Of course, here those losers would probably be mostly French and Germans, which is probably why this isn't happening.) THEN if you need to tax the deposits, hit the amount over the 100,000-euro insurance level while leaving those first 100,000 euros alone.
ECRI's Recession Call: Proprietary Indicators Still Not Cooperating [View article]
Why would ANYONE still "respect the work" of the arrogant, insecure, not very bright (bright people acknowledge their mistakes so they can figure out what went wrong) people of ECRI?
Yes, at some future point (maybe next week, next month or three years from now) we will DEFINITELY have another recession, and when it occurs it will definitely NOT confirm their September 2011 and early 2012 calls which they have never acknowledged to be wrong.
Pizza Inn Inc: On The Verge Of A Breakout [View article]
How is this a "growth stock" when it isn't growing?
I did very well with PZZI in 2011, buying it in the $2s when I first heard about the Pie Five concept and then selling it in the $6s when Pie Five didn't seem to be making any money, and from what I can tell it still isn't. The last 10Q shows that year-over-year trailing six-month average weekly Pie Five sales declined significantly and Pie Five's loss from continuing operations doubled. If the company can't make these stores work, what makes you think it will be able to attract franchisees to give it a try? After all, the franchisees are supposed to run the stores exactly as the company tells them.
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]
Stephen,
By your logic, if you added Argentina and Venezuela to the Euro it would go UP. If the weak countries left there would be less need to print Euros to bail them out; therefore, fewer "Euros per GDP" would be created and the value of each Euro would increase.
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]
Did the "rich people" elect the current President of France or the populist billionaire blowhard (or is that "blownhard"?) who may once again be running Italy? Do the Germans want their currency to join a race to the bottom? (Well, MAYBE on that one if exports start to really tank.)
I'm not at all saying that you're definitely wrong here-- In fact, I'd say it's 60-40 that you're RIGHT. But for me, a 60-40 bet isn't attractive enough to make for, what, a maximum unlevered profit of around 20%?
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]
What happens if the weak countries leave the Euro and the stronger ones stay? There's a non-trivial chance that this could happen and if it does the Euro will go UP. That's why there's enough risk here that I don't necessarily see shorting it as a "slam dunk."
The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
Sorry, that should have read "SEEDING" a bunch of clouds...
The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
Aviator:
This is why I said that Bernanke (and by inclination you, although in the case of "you" I intend no pejorative attack) are not seeing beyond the tips of your noses. What do you think happens to the inflation rate when the velocity of all this newly created money picks up? What Bernanke is doing is the equivalent of massively seeing a bunch of clouds and then immediately looking out the window and saying "See, it's not raining yet." Why not carry your claim through to its "logical" conclusion and just have the government continue to overspend forever while Bernanke keeps printing more and more money to buy the debt?
We are in extremely dangerous territory with Bernanke's "experiment" and he has no idea how it will turn out. Like a physician, the steward of the U.S. economy should "first do no harm."
The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
For NOW it has. Rather than doing what's best for the long-term economic future of this country, Bernanke-- who has the luxury of NOT having to run for reelection-- runs things with a perspective that doesn't go beyond the tip of his nose. But then, what could we expect from a Fed Chairman who in 2007 (!!!) said that the sub-prime crisis was "contained."
>>There is no diverting. You have bought into the "crowding out" fiction that is promoted ad nauseum for political ends.<<
You are confusing two different concepts: "money on the sidelines" when the supply of that money is fixed vs. *newly created money* chasing a fixed number of places to put it.
A Much Better Alternative For Cyprus [View article]
The Fed Is Not 'Printing Money' [View article]
Five years ago when the Treasury wanted to sell $85 billion of debt to obtain funds for the government to spend, the money to buy that debt would come out of the private sector and thus be diverted from other investments and/or purchases of goods and services. Now, however, that money is simply "created" by the Fed while that $85 billion in private sector money is still available to go into other investments and/or continue to purchase goods and services.
None of the "Pundit's" obfuscatory charts, graphs and Bernanke-worship changes this simple common sense fact.
The Cyprus Precedent [View article]
Let the debtholders and other creditors (and equity owners, if there are any) of those banks get wiped out first-- privatized gains and socialized losses are bullshit. (Of course, here those losers would probably be mostly French and Germans, which is probably why this isn't happening.) THEN if you need to tax the deposits, hit the amount over the 100,000-euro insurance level while leaving those first 100,000 euros alone.
The Cyprus Precedent [View article]
Quick, hide your cash somewhere those three consider sacred...
Casino chips, military-owned Gulfstream jets or a golf course!
ECRI's Recession Call: Proprietary Indicators Still Not Cooperating [View article]
Yes, at some future point (maybe next week, next month or three years from now) we will DEFINITELY have another recession, and when it occurs it will definitely NOT confirm their September 2011 and early 2012 calls which they have never acknowledged to be wrong.
Is Carnival Cruise Lines Being Sabotaged? [View article]
Maybe people are just eating too much at the buffet.
Pizza Inn Inc: On The Verge Of A Breakout [View article]
Dude, did you read the numbers in the 10-Q? As far as I can tell, the test FAILED!
I'm open to the company proving otherwise as I agree that it's sort of a sexy concept, but...
Pizza Inn Inc: On The Verge Of A Breakout [View article]
I did very well with PZZI in 2011, buying it in the $2s when I first heard about the Pie Five concept and then selling it in the $6s when Pie Five didn't seem to be making any money, and from what I can tell it still isn't. The last 10Q shows that year-over-year trailing six-month average weekly Pie Five sales declined significantly and Pie Five's loss from continuing operations doubled. If the company can't make these stores work, what makes you think it will be able to attract franchisees to give it a try? After all, the franchisees are supposed to run the stores exactly as the company tells them.
So again, why is this a "growth stock"?
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]
By your logic, if you added Argentina and Venezuela to the Euro it would go UP. If the weak countries left there would be less need to print Euros to bail them out; therefore, fewer "Euros per GDP" would be created and the value of each Euro would increase.
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]
I'm not at all saying that you're definitely wrong here-- In fact, I'd say it's 60-40 that you're RIGHT. But for me, a 60-40 bet isn't attractive enough to make for, what, a maximum unlevered profit of around 20%?
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]
Short The Euro While France And Germany Divorce [View article]