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  • North American comp -24% at Coach in FQ1 [View news story]
    Hate the increase in inventories vs. the decrease in comp sales.
    Oct 28, 2014. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't buy the Amazon dip - Barron's [View news story]
    Very true. WMT is only doing about $10 bill reves on line in total.

    Wmt evidences committment to the online space though. They have a "whatever it takes" view. The recent addition if the Instagram CEo to WMTs board is additinal evodence. marissa Meyer is already on the board.

    But thinking about Amzn's third party sales: those are generally much higher margin than selling purchased goods. They also allow for even slower vendor repayment (thus adding to amzn's vendor float, aka negative working capital). Somwe should exepct amzn to post better margins than others on this. Compare ebay's margin, for example.

    Yet, amzn overall has thin margins.
    Oct 28, 2014. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't buy the Amazon dip - Barron's [View news story]
    I think it is only useful to count the actual revenues Amzn receives.

    Ebay is a similar situation, we do not count their gross volume (around 110 bill est for 2015), we look at the actual revenues to the company. Wmt also sells third party goods on its website. Sotheby's (BID) sells on behalf of others bit we only look to the booked commissions as revenues.
    Oct 28, 2014. 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't buy the Amazon dip - Barron's [View news story]
    I think the negative working capital amzn runs with is due to the very slow payment of accounts payable due to their vendors. They pay slow! It is a source of cash from operations to them. As their growth goes fast, this makes cash from ops bigger (slow payment of a larger AP base).

    By comparison, WMT runs a negative working caputal bases too, most of the time.
    Oct 26, 2014. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't buy the Amazon dip - Barron's [View news story]
    Agree that amazon does have serious potential in the search/ad placement biz. All the data they have accumulated over time on so many users can be put to work here. (One could say the same for all the other retailers, of course). So yes, there is a threat to goog and yes amazn is already doing ads and yes it is the only clearly profitable part of amzn's business.

    However, if you want to buy an ad company, there is google and it is cheaper by pe, totally dominant, has huge cash on the books and produces a firehose of actual profit. They are pretty good at technology too.
    Oct 26, 2014. 01:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't buy the Amazon dip - Barron's [View news story]
    65% of amazons revenues come from general merchandise sales. At a gross of 100 bill/yr that means 65bill of revs from general merchandise. TGT does 74 biil, WMT almost 500 bill.

    Amzn can get shoved around now that big retail is going after the online biz. Amzn is too high at current prices.
    Oct 25, 2014. 09:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Blows Earnings Again: Time To Sell? [View article]
    Lots of blood on the water for AMZN.

    WMT and TGT are going after the business with costless free shipping offers and better prices on merchandise. 65% of AMZN revs are general merchandise sales and the landscape is chaning on this business fast. The sales tax freebie advantage is all but gone with new state laws.

    AWS is not profitable and competes against players with huge cash and huge following. I wouldn't want to compete with GOOG, MSFT on price for what is looking like a commodity business.

    WMT has gotten religion on the internet business. They are doing $10 bill/yr now in that space and losing money. They are fine with losing money and have announced long term committment to doing whatever it takes. They just added the Instragram CEO to the board, and Marissa Meyer is already on the board. If anyone can shove AMZN around in this space it is WMT.

    Not interested in buying AMZN at these prices at all.
    Oct 25, 2014. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie declares $0.49 dividend [View news story]
    For sure! Was very unhappy until the deal failed. Thank god! Now CeO wants to keep his job by paying us shareholders who he previously alienated.

    He is in the situation where a lot of shareholders hate him and all the hedge funds hate him (who got burned on Shire).

    So looks like he is showing up with flowers and candy - i.e. Buy back and dividends :)
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Inverted With Shire [View article]
    Reading that many analysts think Gonzalez will keep his CEO job. Some think the attempted purchase was "gutsy" and find it a positive.

    I am an Abbvie shareholder, happy to see the deal fail. Abbv is higher now than before the deal failed. If the Shire buyout was supposed to be such a good deal for shareholders, we might have expected the stock to drop on the fail.
    Oct 21, 2014. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Inverted With Shire [View article]
    I tend to think ABBV CEO has his job in severe jeopardy.
    Oct 16, 2014. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Inverted With Shire [View article]
    Abbv has to have a vote of shareholders unless Shire grants a waiver to the vote.

    I am sure Abbv will apply for such a waiver from shire. If it is not granted, there must be a vote. However, if the shareholder vote is not completed by dec 14, 2014 the deal will die on its own.

    So the BoD recommending against the merger should be enuf to kill the deal, either thru 1) waiver from shire 2) shareholders vote against 3) shareholder meeting is delayed until after deadline.

    In each case, abbv owes the 1.6 bill
    Oct 16, 2014. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Inverted With Shire [View article]
    I suspect that Abbvie is taking a hard look at where it's best profits come from.

    They make their most profitable sales in in the USA. The US government is both their regulator and their best customer. Yet, they got the idea they could abuse this customer by charging high prices and paying low taxes. It was not sustainable.

    I bet there is a lot going on behind the scenes - government could have mentioned to ABBV that they would certainly look hard at using NON inverted pharma's in the medicare/Medicaid programs. And that could crush ABBV.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Inverted With Shire [View article]
    It appears the abbv-shire deal may fail.
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie's Acquisition Of Shire: Skepticism Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Appears the deal may fail.
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lesson Learned: The Unfortunate Case Of GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    This was a shocker. I am not familiar with the company but stunned none the less. It reinforces the idea that we need to really, really weigh the potential downside of every situation. It is easy to be optimistic in a good market. In the transcripts from the most recent cc management made a strong case that everything was ok. Many large mutual funds owned this stock. It was not easy to see this coming.

    Sometimes rule based systems are helpful. It is an old rule, but often a good one to simply refuse to buy a stock where one particular customer will account for more than 10-15% of revenues. (With some exceptions for manufacturers who sell to Walmart, provided they have strong balance sheets.)

    I am studying the company and will follow the situation to serve as a model for what can go wrong. There is a lot to learn here. It is pretty horrifying to see something like this.
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment