Loren Paz

Bullish on Chinese Microcaps

Do people with degrees from Oxford and other high ranked schools commonly brag about their education level but choose to remain anonymous when publishing blogs these days?

In the article you mention how you been accumulating all those stocks and yet list under disclosure you list none?

And, seeing how you made so much money in your 25 years of investing and all those high powered degrees you have, your is blog still hosted for free on blogspot with a cheap default template; www.bullinachinamarket.../

Can't you afford to purchase a real domain and webhosting serivce, and hire a webdesigner with all your dough?

There is a reason these stocks trade with a lower P/E. Their financial statements aren't reliable very often. For those that actually have auditors like CBAK, you commonly see the auditors saying the company lacks sufficient internal control or lack understanding in complying with GAAP, etc.

Left-for-Dead Syntax-Brillian Should Jump on Bullish Note

You know what they say, every dog has its day.

By the way, the "book value" based on the released financial statements should not be used. Even the company itself said not to rely on them since they have to restate earnings.

When current and accurate financials are release, then there is a much clearer picture on the company for better or for worse.

Are the Changes at Syntax-Brillian Material?

James, you got to forgive the bagholders. They will attack anyone with any hint of negativity on BRLC. They seem pretty emotionally attached to the stock to me.

Until, the company releases some more current financial statements and clarification about the situation from their lenders, the stock isn't going anywhere and will probably stay around a buck.

Is Silver Point a Television Company Repairman?

If Silver Point actually wanted to save BRLC, why would they cut their credit limit down to $120 million from $250 million? Since the company borrowed $137, then will have to immediately pay down $17 million in addition to the $8 million in fees and interest?

Silver Points looks to be just making sure they can recoup their investments. They are taking title to BRLC's inventory from China and forcing the company to pledge 65% of Vivatar as collateral.

Syntax-Brillian Losing North American Market Share

Seeing how the company's brand sell at a lower price then the major name brand competitors, revenue might not be an extremely accurate measure either when you have $1700 42" Sony Bravia XBR's and $800 42" Olevias .

No one is certain about the product mix for BRLC except the company itself. However, ASP was around $550 last quarter. I don't expect it to dramatically increase to something like $1,000 for their fiscal second quarter. Most of the retailers selling Olevias like K-Mart, Target, Sears, Circuit City don't carry units larger then 42" in their stores.

The loss leader used by Target and maybe K-Mart on black firday was a 37" Oleiva I believe. Those 65" tvs were availible in small quantities at Costco's and Sam Clubs. I don't think 65" TVs accounted for a large portion of their product mix. A 65" TV isn't the preffered size yet since they cost around $3,500-$4,000. This holiday season 42"/50" seemed to be more popular. And at lower end stores like K-Mart / Target / Wal-Mart 37" seemed a little more prevelent.

Syntax-Brillian Disappoints Again

Hey Samuel, you have been admitting to be shorting BRLC ever since May of last year in your first piece on BRLC back when it was around $6. Now that is at $1.85 and 70% lower wouldn't it be wise to cover already? How much further downside do you really expect.

Is Syntax-Brillian's Wal-Mart Partnership Good for Sales?

I see. However, you should expand more on your claims.

The CEO did say they would be in Best Buy "in time" for the SuperBowl. I guess their "in time" defintion is different from what I'm reading. I read "in time" as being there weeks before the superbowl began and before the NFL playoffs started they can take advantage of those sales. I guess he meant that it'll be there before SuperBowl Sunday. There use to be a 42" Olevia tv on bestbuy's main website but isn't there anymore. There's still three weeks before the SuperBowl so we'll see.

Yes Costco is one of their customers but they only carry the 65" LCD TV and nothing else. That 65" Olevia tv use to be on CostCo's website but isn't there anymore either.

As for Sam's Club, they are selling the 65" Olevia LCD too but I do not believe they have any other SKUs at the moment. I personally did not see any Olevias at my Wal-Mart when I went shopping over the weekend but i'll take your word they are there in some Wal-Mart stores. This doesn't mean they well be availible in all Wal-Mart stores nationwide by the time the SuperBowl starts. They could be using stores in some regions as test markets.

Anyway I read your statement as you know that a wide range of Olevia SKUs will be availible in all those retailers to take advantage of Super Bowl TV sales and hence I thought you had insider information.

Is Syntax-Brillian's Wal-Mart Partnership Good for Sales?

"By Superbowl Sunday, Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) will be on the shelves at Sam's Club, Wal-Mart (WMT) and Best Buy (BBY)"

How do you know they will be on shelves of all those stores by Superbowl Sunday? Do you have access to insider information?

Syntax-Brillian: A Classic Bottom

As far as the new model China model goes there is no doubt that it is much less profitable then directly selling like previously. However, the 120 day terms and late payments in China resulted in cash flow problems. In sort, under the new model, the income statements would be much uglier but the statement of cash flows should be much improved. It might be possible for the company to actually generate postive cash flows from operations under this new model which I don't think was possible under the old China model.

Currently however, I still do not see where the cash freed up from the new model is going. Li himself stated that in the guidance conference call update that the company will not be producing television at maximum capacity due to supply constraints in the panels until after mid-2008.

I do not know how the author arrived at the estimates for revenue for calendar 2008 but it appeared to be a tad too high. Generously assuming that Vivitar digital camera revenue would be $100 million and the company can maintain somewhere around a $550 ASP (Average Scree Price) in calendar 2008, the company would still have to sell over 1.3 million units of LCD TVs to achieve $850 million in revenue. This 1.3 million units does not include those made by their licensed distrubutor in China.

For this quarter ending december, which is the busiest shopping season for LCD TVs, the company only expects to ship between 250,000 to 275,000 units when not counting those sold by their China distrubutor. With the panel supply constraints stated by the company, I do not see how units sold can be improved so darmatically to achieve $850 million in revenue.

International Competition Between Syntax-Brillian and Vizio Heating Up

It seems you Sandy Sanmina have changed your ID to RC Martin just now too? Why is it your previous username is so similar to the author of this blog piece and now you decided to change it all of a sudden?

Something seems fishy. It would be funny if the two of you are the same person staging a conversation with yourself.

Can Syntax-Brillian Compete With Vizio?

Love your articles Samuel. They are very inciteful. I would love to discuss BRLC with you. I have plenty of other reasons why BRLC will eventually fail and the stock will crash and burn. Please email me [e-mail]