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Lou Gray  

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  • Why First Solar's Analyst Day Did Not Sway Our View [View article]
    Valuentum, I don't read the management comment the same way. I think they are just saying that others will drive themselves out by cutting prices and that will happen independent of what First Solar does.

    In any event, the presence of the Chinese companies, which do not care about profits apparently, means that it will be a long time until low profitability leads to sufficient capacity reduction in this industry.
    Apr 13, 2013. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviving The Blockbuster Potential Of LibiGel For BioSante And Antares Pharma [View article]
    Ali, thanks for this note. Although I am not interested in these particular stocks, your thoughts on how to properly think about trials have been very valuable. Looking forward to your next articles.
    Apr 8, 2013. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy 3D Systems? [View article]
    Profit Fan, thanks for the update. The price in January was getting too ridiculous. The problem with the high revenue growth, which is supposed to justify the valuation, is that it relies on acquisitions so I think investors should carefully think about DDD's organic growth rate.
    Apr 8, 2013. 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express To Start Gobbling Up Its Own Shares [View article]
    "Optimistically, that means we'd be looking at 38% capital upside over the next four years."

    Tim, doesn't this calculation actually imply that the stock is overvalued? The buyback on its own creates no value and, as Brucejfen above points out, financials are cyclical and face challenges with their business models. I think the "margin of safety" is negative here...
    Apr 7, 2013. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: Latest Stock Surge Offers Short Opportunity [View article]
    I am also puzzled by the reaction to the Samsung deal announcement. I doubt it would have large impact on traffic or margins (if, say, Samsung agreed to sell to BBY at much lower prices). Whatever the deal signals, I don't see how it addresses any of the fundamental problems of the company.
    Apr 5, 2013. 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Mobile Is Hot Investors Get A Tableau [View article]
    This IPO is going to be an interesting one. I am working on a peer comparison and QlikView (QLIK) is a very relevant peer because it is a direct competitor of Tableau.
    Apr 5, 2013. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payer Blackstone's 49% EBITDA And 48% Distributable Earnings Growth Are Outstanding [View article]
    Regardless whether the recession is in 2013, 2014, 2015 or later, earnings for this business model are cyclical and will drop in the next recession as fast as they rose in the current valuation upturn.
    Apr 4, 2013. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Wait For The Pullback [View article]
    I think the valuations of the tobacco companies rarely diverge too much from one another and from fair value so you might be in for a long wait. But why buy if there is no gain?

    I think the P/S ratio is never useful but is particularly misleading with the amount of debt that tobacco companies have. Thanks for the peer comp, nonetheless.
    Apr 4, 2013. 03:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T-Mobile's Bad Side: Too Much Debt And Too Little Equity For PCS [View article]
    Tricky situation. Thanks for the breakdown, Chris.
    Apr 4, 2013. 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Online - Spin Off To A 40%+ IRR [View article]
    I really have trouble liking such obsolete businesses (Content, Communications) or business in a very competitive market (flowers). Your argument on the valuation, however, is convincing. I will need to do some further peer comparison...

    Thank you, great note.
    Apr 4, 2013. 03:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Its Recent Price Decline, Prospect Capital Is On Sale [View article]
    I agree - the underlying assets are high-yield debt and Prospect is further leveraged.

    Albert, how does the 5.875% coupon compare to that of previous debt financing the company uses?
    Apr 2, 2013. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Healthcare Services: Worth At Least $10.60, Probably More [View article]
    Well argued, sir. Capex consumes a lot of cash in these businesses, especially since the availability of latest equipment is a major differentiator.
    Apr 2, 2013. 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 IPOs Set Terms As April Calendar Quickly Builds [View article]
    PE-backed homebuilder floating - another sign (or reflection of the fact) that housing is a relatively strong sector now.
    Apr 1, 2013. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams-Sonoma: Unappreciated Housing Recovery Play [View article]
    I found the article useful even though I was familiar with the company. Discussion of fundamentals is important regardless of short-term price fluctuations. Thanks, Alan.
    Mar 31, 2013. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Portfolio Update: Doing Nothing Also Works [View article]
    RS, thanks for making the case for inaction. Studies have shown that individuals often overtrade unnecessarily with fees hurting profits.
    Mar 30, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment