Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Lou Gray  

View Lou Gray's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Entry Level Lumias Should Grab Market Share [View article]
    Thanks for the article, Tom.

    I think MSFT/Nokia's strategy was always to push the high-end phones first to show that they can be competitive at the top end with the other systems. Then, the cheap phones come to drive volume, which attracts app developers and so on.

    If they had started with cheap phones first, WP would have been associated with cheap and that's not how MSFT wants to position the ecosystem.

    Starting with a full line, both low- and high-end, would have diluted marketing efforts and was probably not an option from product development constraint perspective.
    Feb 26, 2013. 05:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust - The Good, Bad, And Ugly News In Q1 Results [View article]
    Daniel, great analysis once again. Plenty of wells still to be drilled but track record here has been very weak. I think the comparison with the plans at the time of IPO is now just painful..
    May 16, 2013. 06:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ziopharm Offers High Risk, High Return [View article]
    Todd, thanks for highlighting this stock. The drugs are targeting tough diseases. Good luck with the results around 25th.
    Mar 18, 2013. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Small Cap, Domestic Oil Producer Carrizo Could Yield Huge Gains [View article]
    "The proven value of Carrizo's assets, discounted at a rate of ten percent (PV10) is already $1.6 billion. Contrast that with the current market cap of $950 million."

    Also, don't forget the $968 million debt...
    Apr 28, 2013. 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipmos: Shares Have Over 100% Upside And Near-Term Catalysts [View article]
    Thanks for the great article. Could you elaborate on why you think the company trades at just 1.5x EV/EBITDA? You don't get such a low valuation without any problems, potential or actual.

    For example, why did EBITDA slightly fall in 2012 although demand grew?

    The positives you listed are rather convincing but we should be aware of any potential risks even in the best story. Thanks.
    Mar 29, 2013. 06:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: Look Out Below ... Accelerated Free Fall Looming [View article]
    Thanks for the case for shorting the stock. The buyout was indeed a major driver of the stock but is now gone and all the other problems remain.

    Could you elaborate on how you reached to $12 as a fair value for Best Buy?
    Mar 28, 2013. 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14.5% Dividend Payer KKR Quadrupled Its Economic Net Income In 2012 - More Growth Ahead [View article]
    Thanks for the article, David. I think we should add that both earnings and dividends will be highly cyclical, good near-term outlook notwithstanding.
    Mar 28, 2013. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CenturyLink's Dividend Reduction Diverts From Decent Performance [View article]
    A cash cow progressing in its life cycle. A cut of dividend by a quarter, however, was too sharp for such a "stable", mature company.
    Feb 20, 2013. 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE: A Fundamentally Sound Time To Add It To Your Portfolio [View article]
    Hey Ed, thanks for the overview. I just want to point out that GE's important financial services business, GE Capital, distorts many of the metrics (from profit margins to Z-score) so the comparison is Diversified Machinery is not that straightforward.
    Feb 7, 2013. 06:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Return Of 'Arrested Development' Demonstrates Netflix's Strength [View article]
    Thanks all for the comments. You may have noticed that Netflix's Chief Content Officer had a long interview at a conference -

    A very relevant bit:
    "So I think there is a great scientific basis for how we license content and what we target and how much we pay, but there is also a -- it's coded in the art of saying, if we had that one, that would drive -- it doesn’t quite beat the model. So one of the things I look for in my licensing executives all the time is someone who can figure out the balance of analytics intuition. So they know when to question the data and say I know what the data says about it. It's wrong and the show is going to explode and it takes us certain kind of executive to do that. So for that reason, a lot of this season, I don’t believe that you can reverse engineer content, right. So I think some things have all the parts and still don’t work, or sometimes they have none of the parts, you know somehow they still work. So I think it's a mix of arts and science in that way."
    May 30, 2013. 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Brings Innovative Solutions To Sustainable Food [View article]
    Great article, Kevin.

    The roster of partners is impressive. However, do other companies at similar stage of development of technology/product have similar partnerships? From the point of view of the big company, why not try working with all startups like Solazyme even if the individual probability of success is low?
    Apr 29, 2013. 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Methanex Is On A Roll [View article]
    Philip, thanks - good argument. Do you know who operates the rest of the methanol capacity in the US?
    Apr 28, 2013. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fidelity National Financial: 33% Of The Title Insurance Market At The Cusp Of A Housing Recovery [View article]
    Interesting business but rather niche and thus hard to analyze. The unrelated businesses add further complexity. If you want exposure to the housing recovery, I think there are more straightforward ways to invest.

    Thanks for introducing me to this company, Intangible Valuation.
    Apr 26, 2013. 03:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: Blackhawk Network Holdings [View article]
    Great overview, IPOdesktop.

    "Safeway is also one of HAWK's largest distribution partners".

    Do we know what Safeway's strategy on HAWK is over the medium run? If Safeway plans to sell the remaining c. 80% of shares shortly, could Safeway negotiate more vigorously and make the distribution terms worse for HAWK? In other words, is the current deal between HAWK and Safeway arm's length?
    Apr 19, 2013. 03:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Now, Not Google Glass, Is A Game-Changer [View article]
    Matt, I don't see Now and Glass as such distinct projects. One of Google's strength is the complementarity between most of its products - as you say, mostly to support search. I think that if Google Glass has a killer app, it would be Google Now. Conversely, if Google Now works very well one day (i.e. addresses comments such as that by Dale Napier above), it would be most useful on Google Glass, where you do not need to do anything proactively such as looking at your phone. Thanks for the article!
    Apr 13, 2013. 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment