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Loungin

 
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  • Betting On Apple's Operations Team And Gross Margins [View article]
    Good article, but I have a slight correction to one of your statements. The closest call on margin was in Q3 2012 when they guided 41.5% and did 42.8%, which was a difference of 1.3%.
    Dec 13, 2012. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    Interesting chart comparison, but I would like to know what the P/E was of those stocks that you mention at the peak. AAPL was in the low 16 TTM P/E when it was in the low 700 range. Were the other stocks that you mention in the same valuation range or were multiples much higher? A little bit of fundamental/valuation overlay on this purely technical analysis would make it very cool. Thanks for the post.
    Dec 11, 2012. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Miss Its Estimates - And Every One After That? [View article]
    Absolutely no basis for iPhone numbers. You are writing as if there were no iPhone 5's in the USA at the beginning of the quarter, which is blatantly wrong. I had our assistants pick up iPhone 5's for our executives the day it launched and it only took 1-2 weeks to get them all, and that was back in late Sept / early Oct. We were table to get the white ones the same day. And, as another comment points out, I'd much rather buy a company with excess demand as opposed to excess supply. Supply is WAAAAY easier to solve than demand. Apple has the best possible problem you can have.
    Dec 7, 2012. 12:43 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Variance Between Apple's Intrinsic Value And Analyst Estimates [View article]
    Your growth rate seems VERY low relative to most models and you only included 20B of cash, which is just one line on the B/S. Look at the long-term portion which is all in 16 month treasuries I believe. That will add A LOT more cash to your model and increase your share price by maybe another $100, even in your ultra low growth (GDP growth) scenario.
    Nov 12, 2012. 07:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    Thanks. If you wrote this a couple weeks ago I would say that we'll never see 522, but with the recent craziness I just don't know. Could be tomorrow if things keep up.
    Nov 8, 2012. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    ycharts.com interactive charts is free and has some decent ratios, but the P/E ratio is not nearly as good as doing it manually in excel because it only adjusts every quarter or so. Very hard to trade off of, but if you want longer term direction it's not bad. That's generally what I use as a pre-check and then I go in and do it manually.

    All companies mature, growth slows and P/E multiples come down, so I'm not being naive about this being a temporary range, I'm trading Feb '13 calls and am comfortable with the range until then. Once all the new products refreshes come out I'll have to see what APPL does before making any big bets on the 14-16 range. Hope this helps.

    Thanks for the comment!
    Nov 6, 2012. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    Depends on how the stock performs going into earnings really. If it's towards the higher end of the range I will probably sell before earnings while volatility is still high. If the stock is still less than 650 then I will probably hold, but I'll have to wait and see what kind of overall environment we're in when Jan comes around. Thanks for the comment!
    Nov 6, 2012. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    I'm only trading through the Jan/Feb timeframe, partially because of the fiscal cliff stuff, but also for other reasons.
    Nov 4, 2012. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    Ha, nice. I guess I can see that interpretation. What is your #1 question that you would like answered then?
    Nov 4, 2012. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    I responded to this above. I had several small trades that were successful, but one big one for 2.6x with $1mm on the line. Geez, everyone is giving me hell over this.
    Nov 3, 2012. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    I am a one stock trader and I make big bets using options. Some credit spreads and other naked calls. See my reply to you above about my "millions" comment.

    I was not in apple when it fell $95. If you read my article I got out at 680. I know that what I do is risky and I know I can lose a lot. Why are you so angry?
    Nov 3, 2012. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    You just seem bitter in all of your comments. "chasing dimes"??? Really, do you think I write here to make money? LOL. Cheer up man.
    Nov 3, 2012. 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    I actually didn't know SA pays to write, so that was just a bonus. I put $1mm down on Jan '14 400 strike leaps in November when the stock was around 380. I sold at 530 or so. My return was 2.6x, so I ended up with $2.6 million. Not sure what else you want to know, but it's not "fishy". Cheers.
    Nov 3, 2012. 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    My wife has a Google/Samsung Nexus phone and complains about it every day. It's a piece of junk. I used to have one as well and it was SUPER buggy. Would randomly shut down in the middle of a call, quit applications, freeze, just plain crappy. She is dying for an Apple, but just needs her contract to end. I think that's a pretty common theme.
    Nov 3, 2012. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    YUP! I think I commented on this earlier. I used to HATE Apple, was a big Droid guy, loved my PCs. Well, the iPad was the gateway drug. Got that, then started opening up. Later got an iPhone when I got out of my Droid contract. It was just so simple to sync all my content. Then recently needed a computer, so I dropped another $3k on the new 15" MacBook Pro Retina (which I'm typing on now). I also bought about 6 20-pin to lightning adapters, hundreds of songs/movies, and every new gadget that came out. It all starts with the gateway drug, and just imagine, they are just getting started with that in China.
    Nov 3, 2012. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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