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Lowell Herr

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  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    Brian,

    Correct. It is akin to betting on the winning horse after the race is finished. Years ago there was a racket to do just this through wire tapping and delaying the transmission of the results.

    Lowell
    Apr 2 09:04 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    The shenanigans of high frequency traders has been known for some time. Michael Lewis brings it all together in an understandable form. Don't shoot the messenger.

    While most small traders who use limit orders are not likely to be impacted by the HFT folk, there are some solutions to this problem.

    1. Remember when trades were 1/2, 1/4, and 1/8 of a point? Move back to at least a nickel or better, dime limits rather than trades to the penny. This will reduce some of the skimming. Grasso, former chair of the NYSE, admitted after retirement that moving to the penny trades was a mistake.
    2. Set a tax per trade that will penalize the very high traders and use that money to pay down the national debt. After all, stock traders tend to be better off and can afford the additional cost. Of course this is not likely to happen.
    3. Establish a time delay of a minute or so. Something that will take away the "nanosecond advantage" the HFT now have over the average investor.

    There is a problem so come up with solutions for a fix.

    Lowell
    Apr 2 08:34 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Model Increases Return While Reducing Portfolio Risk - Part 2 [View article]
    95% of my securities are commission free. Even though I review portfolios every 33 days, I use large target bands so there is not all that much rebalancing.

    Lowell
    Mar 18 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Strengthen: Bullish Percent Indicators Rebound [View article]
    Here is the latest BPI data.

    http://bit.ly/OttdBz

    Lowell
    Mar 16 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Top Tactical Portfolios Based On 29 Asset Allocation Approaches [View article]
    Will you be posting a follow-up article of the top performers with additional details so your study can be duplicated by investors using out-of-sample data?

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 25 07:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Strong Market [View article]
    "As per Elliott Wave Theory the US and London and Japan stock markets already peaked in January and are going to be entering the 3rd wave Down this week and it will be a fast and scary wave down."

    Be sure to read my latest BPI article at this address.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Yes, the market might go down this week, but to make absolute predictions is also dangerous.

    Lowell
    Feb 24 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Show Little Change: VPU And VHT Are ETFs To Watch [View article]
    Remember that this was written over 10 months ago.

    Lowell
    Feb 23 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Management: Blending Asset Allocation And Momentum [View article]
    Indy,

    I'm using the model on portfolios that were launched many years ago, some in the late 1990s. Six months is much too short a time frame to draw any conclusions.

    I do maintain a spreadsheet to see how the IRR of the different portfolios are gaining or losing over a six-week period. Those results are encouraging.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 18 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Management: Blending Asset Allocation And Momentum [View article]
    Indy,

    Thank you for the link and I just finished reading the Butler et. al., paper. Most interesting. The exhibit that most closely aligns with what I am doing is #4. If working within a taxable account I'm not sure there is a great advantage to the weekly rebalancing.

    I wish the authors had listed the securities they used to come up with the results. They are missing or I missed them. At least the broad asset classes are listed.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 18 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Management: Blending Asset Allocation And Momentum [View article]
    Indy,

    The "winning" ETFs are not equally balance, but weighted based on an algorithm.

    I am not familiar with Butler et. al., paper.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 18 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Management: Blending Asset Allocation And Momentum [View article]
    Ron,

    DJP would work but it is an Exchange Traded Note, not an ETF. I prefer ETFs.

    The performance uses three metrics. Performance over the past three and six months plus a volatility factor. 50% is allocated to the three-month performance, 30% is assigned to the six-months performance and the remaining 20% takes volatility into consideration. These percentages and time frames can be adjusted within the spreadsheet.

    Lowell
    Feb 17 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Strong Market [View article]
    Ant21b,

    Are you moving all assets to SDS, an ultra-short ETF?

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 17 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Strong Market [View article]
    At least we have the "gloom and doom" here on record to refer to over the next year.

    BTW, I do have a risk reduction model in place to react to a bear market.

    Lowell
    Feb 16 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Strong Market [View article]
    Quantum,

    If one is looking for "Elliott Wave" entertainment, read this article.

    http://bit.ly/M3YQjK

    If there is one thing I've learned in over 50 years of investing it is the following. Never predict how much the stock market will move and when it will do it in the same sentence.

    Lowell
    Feb 16 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Strong Market [View article]
    Xpan,

    Inserting 17 charts within one article would be quite cumbersome. Further, charts would not show the changes from week to week due to how PnF graphs are constructed. They are not time dependent.

    Lowell
    Feb 15 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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717 Comments
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