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Lowell Herr

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  • Bullish Percent Indicators Reflect Strong Market [View article]
    Xpan,

    Inserting 17 charts within one article would be quite cumbersome. Further, charts would not show the changes from week to week due to how PnF graphs are constructed. They are not time dependent.

    Lowell
    Feb 15 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Upon The 'Swensen Six' Portfolio [View article]
    NN,

    If you happen to be a TDAmeritrade client, TLT and TIP are commission free ETFs. That will vary from broker to broker. It pays to reduce costs as you well know.

    Lowell
    Feb 7 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Upon The 'Swensen Six' Portfolio [View article]
    NervousNeville,

    No. The ETFs one selects as possible investments are analyzed on a regular basis. I do this every 33 days. The ETFs are run through an analysis called "Cluster Weighting Momentum." This process breaks the ETFs into potential clusters where the top performers are identified.

    Lowell
    Feb 7 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Index Funds Become Too Popular? [View article]
    Larry,

    If you follow all my links you will find that I agree with your position. I also recognize there are outliers.

    Lowell
    Feb 6 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Index Funds Become Too Popular? [View article]
    Larry,

    I'm well aware of the randomness of investors beating the market. It is not unlike filling Yankee Stadium and then locating (in advance of first coin flip) who is left standing after 15 coin flips.

    I posed my questions to those who state they are beating the market. I want to know what software is used to track performance of both the portfolio and benchmark as I know of commercial software that does not properly handle cash flowing in and out of the benchmark.

    Lowell
    Feb 6 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Index Funds Become Too Popular? [View article]
    Larry's article has generated so many comments I thought I would write a blog about some of the questions that come to mind when the passive vs. active debate surfaces. Here is the link to that blog.

    http://bit.ly/LBTlsv

    Lowell
    Feb 6 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Upon The 'Swensen Six' Portfolio [View article]
    Each ETF ends up in only one cluster, never more.

    Lowell
    Feb 4 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Upon The 'Swensen Six' Portfolio [View article]
    Wmjennings,

    The cutoff correlation of 0.80 groups those securities that have a correlation of 0.80 or higher. In the case of JNK and VNQ, they have a 0.64 correlation so each are placed in a different cluster.

    Many of the bond and treasury ETFs have a correlation greater than 0.8 so they fall into cluster #8. PCY, to take another example, does not have a correlation of 0.8 or higher with any of the other ETFs so it ends up with its own cluster. BWX does likewise.

    As for the final percentage weighting, that is a proprietary calculation based on ranking and the absolute acceleration or absolute momentum.

    Lowell
    Feb 4 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Upon The 'Swensen Six' Portfolio [View article]
    The longer the better, but since I cannot hurry time I'll track the trends as each week passes.

    Early results are quite positive.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 4 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Signal Market Correction Is Underway [View article]
    Little did I know how dramatic the down-turn.

    Lowell
    Feb 4 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Upon The 'Swensen Six' Portfolio [View article]
    Yesterday's down market shook up the ETF rankings to where VUG is the only remaining equity ETF that is still outperforming SHY.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 4 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Signal Market Correction Is Underway [View article]
    Tactical,

    By "correction" I meant that the PnF graphs are showing shifts from the offense being in control (X's in the right-hand column) to the defense taking over (O's in the right-hand column). In addition, several major indexes moved below the 70% line.

    A 10% correction would bring more changes than those shown in the above tables.

    Lowell
    Feb 2 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Signal Market Correction Is Underway [View article]
    Ray,

    I use an approach known as "Cluster Weighting Momentum." However, I don't apply it to sectors of the market as sectors limit exposure to many markets. Instead I track about 30 ETFs that provide exposure to all the major markets of the world. Searching for "Clusters" on my blog ( http://itawealth.com ) will bring up many posts, but not all are free to read.

    It would be possible to set up 10 or 11 sectors of the U.S. Market and run CWM analysis on those to see which are the top performers.

    Lowell
    Feb 2 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators Signal Market Correction Is Underway [View article]
    Betadog66,

    I cited the top reference in my article. The other well-known source is Thomas J. Dorsey. As you will see from this reference ( http://dorseywright.com ), Point and Figure is one of the cornerstones behind management of their mutual funds. Dorsey has written a few books on PnF and the latest one came out about six months ago. I would recommend starting with Dorsey before moving on to the very expensive du Plessis book.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Feb 2 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applying Momentum And Cluster Analysis To Replicate The Yale Portfolio [View article]
    Flires,

    The Cluster Weighting Momentum model extracts the top performing ETF from each cluster, assuming it is performing better than SHY. Note that VUG, VBK, and VOT were not included in the above analysis.

    I think all the performance data tables are protected only for Platinum members. That is why you cannot see them. One of the reasons is that viewers need to understand the numbers in context and what is mean by the customized benchmark.

    Lowell
    Jan 31 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
718 Comments
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