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Lowell Herr

 
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  • Bullish Percent Indicators And Delta Factors For January 25, 2013 [View article]
    While the Bullish Percent Indicators are based on historical data, the same is not true for the "Delta Factor" information.

    If the Affordable Healthcare bill guarantees more money will go to healthcare, then one better buy an ETF such as VHT.

    Lowell
    Jan 30, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Swensen Portfolio' Updated [View article]
    Swensen did not recommend his "Yale Portfolio" in his Unconventional Success book. My interpretation of his recommendations comes from Chapter 3, Portfolio Construction.

    As an aside, the highly leveraged funds have not done all that well recently. Apparently too many hedge fund managers are chasing too few opportunities.

    Lowell
    Jan 30, 2013. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
    Danny,

    I also recommended to the holder of this portfolio that they cut investments that are holding anything below 3%.

    While the expense ratios are included in the analysis, this does not mean one should not find other investments to replace those with high fees. I totally agree with you on these recommendations.

    Lowell
    Jan 29, 2013. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adding Piotroski Stocks (CRA) To A Core Index Portfolio [View article]
    It should read CRAI in the title of the article.

    Lowell
    Jan 28, 2013. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
    Both Risk and Return are important and that is why I strive to construct portfolios that have a projected Return/Risk ratio of 0.60 or higher. One of the weaknesses of the above portfolio is that it does not meet this standard.

    Again, this portfolio was submitted by a reader.

    Lowell
    Jan 25, 2013. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
    The person who set up this portfolio wanted to reduce risk, so return was not the primary concern.

    The 3.93% is the future projected return for BWX, not the historical return. It will likely do better or worse than 3.9%.

    Lowell
    Jan 24, 2013. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
    Clarification: Just so readers know, the above portfolio was sent to me by one of my blog readers.
    http://bit.ly/rfwO89
    I posted the portfolio and my analysis for ITA readers. Seeking Alpha picked up the article and published it - which they have the right to do.

    So read the article and analysis in that context.

    Lowell
    Jan 24, 2013. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
    Taxes would not differ from those related with SPY. All but GTU can be purchased commission free and the fees are similar.

    Lowell
    Jan 23, 2013. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
    Tom,

    Here is the URL for the Bullish Percent Indicator (BPI) article.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Lowell
    Jan 22, 2013. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
    Contheon,

    VIG and DEM are certainly two options. I would need to run an analysis to see if they increase or decrease the Diversification Metric and how they impact the Correlation Matrix. Thanks for the suggestions. I hold VIG in a portfolio or two, but not DEM.

    I use TDAmeritrade and when possible use commission free ETFs. As I recall, DEM is not one of TDA's commission free ETFs, but that does not automatically eliminate it as an option.

    Lowell
    Jan 22, 2013. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
    The main objective of the above analysis is not historic, but rather what might one expect or project going forward over the next six to twelve months.

    If I were to make a guess, I would NOT expect this portfolio to grow at 8.4% annually as the current market is over-bought in my opinion. There are a number of reasons and one can be found within my BPI article.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Lowell
    Jan 21, 2013. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
    I've held the majority of these ETFs since well before the 2008 recession.

    Lowell
    Jan 21, 2013. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators For 11 January 2013 [View article]
    Romansic,

    Utilities likely provides the least useful information. I pay most attention to the NYSE BPI data.

    Lowell
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators For 11 January 2013 [View article]
    Lenstj,

    I don't disagree with you and I posit we will see the market dip sharply within two months unless Congress comes to some reasonable agreement over the national debt. The debt issue is a good excuse for an over-bought market to retreat and just take a rest.

    The other position is that the economy is strengthening and we could see the indexes and sectors remain strong for a long period.

    Lowell
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
    After reading this fine article I was reminded of the following quote from Sam Harris.

    “If someone doesn’t value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide that proves they should value evidence.

    If someone doesn’t value logic, what logical argument would you invoke to prove they should value logic?”

    Lowell
    Jan 9, 2013. 10:08 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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