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Lowell Herr  

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  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    Jon1977,

    My first purchase would be VTI, an ETF that covers the entire U.S. Equities market. That would be my very first purchase. Be sure to set up an account with a discount broker who provides commission free ETFs.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Sep 10, 2013. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Model Increases Return While Reducing Portfolio Risk - Part 1 [View article]
    Varan,

    Yes, we tested TLT, but due to its great run during the test period it looked more like an anomaly and we were not interested in curve fitting to improve returns. Further, we wanted a cutoff ETF that had a low volatility and SHY fit the bill. TLT is quite volatile as you can see from the screen shot.

    The choice of ETFs was made before any tests were run, much as one would set up a portfolio without knowing past results.

    Lowell
    Sep 6, 2013. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Model Increases Return While Reducing Portfolio Risk - Part 1 [View article]
    Volatility is the standard deviation or price movement of the ETF over a specified time frame. Inside the spreadsheet one can select a time frame. In the example I used a 10-Day period.

    Lowell
    Sep 6, 2013. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Faber-Richardson Quantitative System Works: A Modified Approach. [View article]
    Brian,

    There is none. The owner of that portfolio requested that name. Also, I think there is one portfolio named after a president.

    Sorry to break the trend. (g)

    Lowell
    Aug 21, 2013. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Faber-Richardson Quantitative System Works: A Modified Approach. [View article]
    Will_7000,

    No connection. I name the portfolios I track after physicists and HedgeHunter ask me to give a name to this sample portfolio.

    Lowell
    Aug 9, 2013. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Permanent Portfolio Approach [View article]
    Varan,

    The real test is if I can make this work going forward. I'm testing the model with a few portfolios so I should know the trend a year from now. I will be rebalancing every 33 days.

    Lowell
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Permanent Portfolio Approach [View article]
    Varan,

    Part 5 of The Feynman Study, too long to explain here, showed an annualized gain of 10.5% from late June of 2007 through late June of 2013. The return of the S&P 500 over the same time frame was 2.7%. The greatest draw-down was only 12.5% despite the bear market of 2008. The study is not a curve fitting type of study. Eighteen ETFs, used in nearly all the portfolios I track, were used and a Momentum overlay was applied - similar to what you recommended to me about a year ago.

    Lowell
    Jul 30, 2013. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Permanent Portfolio Approach [View article]
    Mitch,

    The above was not a "planned" article for Seeking Alpha. Instead, it was a response to a reader of my blog (http://bit.ly/rfwO89) where I was answering a question related to the Permanent Portfolio.

    You may be interested in reading the series of articles by HedgeHunter titled, "The Feynman Study." To this point there are five articles and a number of Word documents. The most recent article (#5) contains the amazing results when one applies the momentum model.

    Lowell
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    Steve,

    Google "efficient frontier youtube" and you will see a number of presentations on the meaning or examples of the efficient frontier. Not all are of equal quality, but if you look at a few of these you will soon pick up the general idea.

    Lowell
    Jul 27, 2013. 04:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    Pamhub,

    I have book recommendations. Go to this site.

    http://bit.ly/134GukP

    Two very basic books not on this list are these two.
    1. "The Investment Answer" by Goldie and Murray This is an 80 page book that is very easy reading and covers all the basics for an index investor.
    2. "The Elements of Investing" by Malkiel and Ellis. This is an excellent 140 pages of investing advice.

    After reading these two I would definitely read Bernstein's "Investors Manifesto."

    As for investment sites, if you are looking for information and interactions that get down to the basics of portfolio construction, management, and monitoring, while I am biased, check out ITA Wealth Management at this site.

    http://bit.ly/rfwO89

    Lowell
    Jul 21, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    One could find equivalent index mutual funds with some exceptions. I'm no longer as familiar with index mutual funds as I am with ETFs. ETFs provide more flexibility in portfolio construction and the cost is frequently lower.

    Lowell
    Jul 18, 2013. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    BB,

    If I am setting up a passive portfolio, I skew the asset class percentages toward value over growth and toward mid and small-cap ETFs vs. larger cap ETFs. An example is the Schrodinger Portfolio on my blog ( http://bit.ly/rfwO89 ) site.

    Did I understand your question correctly?

    Lowell
    Jul 18, 2013. 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    TJ,

    While there is overlap in the options, one is not necessarily invested in all the ETFs at any one time based on the momentum-optimization recommendations. Now if the investor set up constraints requiring particular ETFs be in the portfolio, then overlapping, as you suggest, will certainly occur.

    I consider the percentage to invest in a particular asset class to be one of the most difficult problems facing investors.

    I'll take a look at your 10- international sector recommendation. Thanks.

    Lowell
    Jul 18, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting A New Portfolio Today [View article]
    Jim,

    No, it is not TDA software, but rather software developed by Peter Hoadley. It is an Excel add-on. Another investor developed two worksheets for the Hoadley spreadsheet so it is really a combination of two authors who put together the material I am using for this analysis.

    Lowell
    Jul 17, 2013. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Mebane Faber's Updated Risk Reduction Model [View article]
    Zazing,

    Both develop international and emerging markets have had a bad run over the last few years, particularly when measured against the U.S. Equities market (VTSMX or VTI). I see that when I rank the ETFs I am using in all the portfolios I track.

    Take a look at the Rankings data table within this article and you will see what I'm talking about. VWO is way down the table.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Lowell
    Jul 17, 2013. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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