Seeking Alpha

Lowell Herr

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Lowell Herr's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Bullish Percent Index And Sector Indicators Dip Further South [View article]
    Bottoms are difficult to pick. Should several of the major indexes dip below the 30% line, it will be time to move all available cash into the market. However, the market could turn around and we never see the 30% level for many months.

    Lowell
    Nov 17, 2012. 08:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy Portfolio 2012: Yin And Yang [View article]
    Matthew,

    What I did was take five portfolios that were lagging the VTSMX and the ITA Index (a customized index built for each individual portfolio) and set them up to follow the ITA Risk Reduction model, a slight modification of the Faber-Richardson "Ivy Portfolio" model. Over time, I want to see if these portfolios gain ground on the two benchmarks. It is still too early to tell.

    To track portfolio performance and benchmark performance, I use the TLH Spreadsheet. There are a number of features to this spreadsheet that I have not found available except in some very expensive commercial software.

    Lowell
    Nov 9, 2012. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy Portfolio 2012: Yin And Yang [View article]
    Matthew,

    To save you time, here is the link I was referring to in the above comment.

    http://bit.ly/Idrr35

    Lowell
    Nov 8, 2012. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivy Portfolio 2012: Yin And Yang [View article]
    Matthew,

    I am employing a modified version of the Ivy Portfolio with five portfolios. Instead of using the 10-month SMA, I am using a 195-Day Exponential Moving Average and I update or review each portfolio every 32 days. The reason for the 32-day period is to rotate the review through the month so as to not bias the review with an end of the month update. The five portfolios are reviewed at different times of the month. This information is available on my blog at

    http://bit.ly/rfwO89

    Not all the material is free to read so be aware of that restriction.

    Lowell
    Nov 8, 2012. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio For A 25-Year Old: The Positives And Negatives [View article]
    Ypa,

    I ran an analysis using five years of data and then I looked at my "Delta Factor" projections. PCY, GLD, and VSS show up as a Sell and VWO and RWX as a Buy. Those are probability projections that look out over the next six to twelve months. Here is a link to a little more information on the "Delta Factor."

    http://bit.ly/zc5j8E

    Lowell
    Nov 4, 2012. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio For A 25-Year Old: The Positives And Negatives [View article]
    Ray,

    I agree with your assessment that gold is over priced. That is also true for some of the other ETFs - in my opinion. I use other analytical tools to determine when an ETF is priced to buy. In general, I think the market is a bit high for buying at this time.

    One general check I use is Bullish Percent Indicators.

    Lowell
    Nov 4, 2012. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio For A 25-Year Old: The Positives And Negatives [View article]
    Ypa Finance,

    Yes, the projections are based on three years of data, the recommended time frame by the author of the software. I can go out longer, depending on whether or not there is data for all the ETFs (or stocks) in the portfolio under investigation. I frequently use five years as that takes in the entire bear market of 2008 and early 2009. For this portfolio the results were similar.

    As we all know, making long range projections are dangerous. For a portfolio such as this one, I would review it at least once per year.

    Lowell
    Nov 4, 2012. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Equity ETFs Merit Attention [View article]
    Yes. In addition to the "Delta Factor" analysis I look at Bullish Percent Indicators, Point and Figure graphs for individual ETFs, and the 195-Day EMAs. I pay less attention to the 13-34 Day EMA combination, but I don't completely ignore those signals.

    The price of an ETF with respect to the 195-Day EMA seems to work well when backed up by positive BPI and "Delta Factor" signals.

    Lowell

    Lowell
    Oct 31, 2012. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Equity ETFs Merit Attention [View article]
    Yes, June was a good time to buy and the "Delta Factor" was signalling a Buy at that time as well. While the early gains were missed, the probability of future gains is also there. Only time will tell.

    Lowell
    Oct 31, 2012. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adjustments To The Alternative Number One Portfolio [View article]
    I meant to say "sovereign" debt, not distressed debt.

    Lowell
    Oct 27, 2012. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Socially Responsible Investing: From Fringe To Mainstream [View article]
    To see if social screening impacts performance I compared the Domini Social Fund (DSEFX), a large-cap blend fund with VFINX and SPY, two proxies for the S&P 500. Both are also large-cap blend investments. I used five time periods going out as far as 20 years. The data is available at this web location.

    http://bit.ly/VFsgFQ

    Lowell
    Oct 5, 2012. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Begins With Education: Top 12 Investment Books [View article]
    Ravee,

    Once more, why focus on Warren Buffett instead of Charlie Steadman? Given a sufficient number of investors we know a top performing manager will emerge based on the laws of probability. The same laws will project dismal failures.

    Lowell
    Sep 30, 2012. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Sectors Projected To Do Well In Fourth Quarter [View article]
    Ray,

    If you go to http://bit.ly/rfwO89 and look under Categories in the right sidebar, under the 200 Level you will find Portfolio Performance. Click on that option and I think you will find lots of data.

    To contact me via the blog, on the top of the page you will see a Tab labeled, About Me. Hover over that tab with your cursor and a menu will drop down should Contact. That is how you can contact me.

    Lowell
    Sep 29, 2012. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Sectors Projected To Do Well In Fourth Quarter [View article]
    Ray,

    Just to be clear, the above portfolio is not a real portfolio. Nor does it closely match any of the portfolios on ITA as I use asset classes rather than sectors to construct portfolios.

    Lowell
    Sep 29, 2012. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Sectors Projected To Do Well In Fourth Quarter [View article]
    Ray,

    Eleven portfolios are tracked on the ITA Wealth Management blog. Platinum members have access to all the transactions for eight of the eleven. These are real, not fictitious, portfolios. Performance data is provided from time to time. Once the third quarter data is available and I have all the portfolios updated, I will post another set of data. I would need to check, but I think the performance results are only available to Platinum members.

    I use two benchmarks - the VTSMX total market index and the ITA Index, a customized benchmark that is designed to track the asset allocation plan for each portfolio. The portfolios are of different size and were launched on different dates. The portfolios use index ETFs for the investment vehicles, although a few portfolios hold individual stocks.

    Here is a table that was posted over two years ago. I assume this is what you are looking for. Many similar tables have been posted since August of 2010.

    http://bit.ly/MjbQg8

    Lowell
    Sep 29, 2012. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
965 Comments
294 Likes