Optimizing The Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
Bob,
The limit is 40 stocks with the QPP40 software. There is also a QPP20 where only 20 tickers can be evaluated.
If I recall, there are now 54 Dividend Aristocrates so I eliminated any with a yield below 2% and came up with 37.
You have the idea of how the optimization works. One can optimize on return, risk, beta, yield, or some other metric of your choosing, so long as it can be located in the QPP spreadsheet.
Optimizing The Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
Inzkeeper,
1) The double entry of CLX is an error. One should be CL, but when I entered it, Excel automatically "typed" CLX and I failed to catch the double entry. 2) QPP is a software program designed by Geoff Considine. To my knowledge QPP does not account for dividend growth rate. 3) To come up with the above results two spreadsheets are running in cooperation with each other. An optimizer worksheet links to the QPP spreadsheet projections and comes up with the "best" allocation of assets based on constraints one places on the investments.
Top Core Stocks Analyzed Using QPP Plus Delta Factor Projections [View article]
Oldlaxer59,
As way of explanation, Seeking Alpha editors picked this article up off my blog (http://bit.ly/rfwO89) so this piece was written for my readers. The portfolio needs to be read in the context of many other posts.
As way of color explanation, the individual holdings are compared to Vanguard's Total Market Index Fund, VTSMX. For a stock to receive a green background in the Delta column, the value must be equal or greater than 15%. That means the projected return minus historical return must be => 15%. This value is subject to change.
Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio And Market Stages [View article]
In William Bernstein new e-book, "Skating Where The Puck Was," he is less than positive as to the future performance of the "Permanent Portfolio." Gold is not likely to repeat the past performance, bonds will decline when interest rates begin to rise, and cash contributes little to the portfolio except as a downdraft protector.
I would be a very patient investor with the market near an all-time high. That is about as much investment advice as I prefer to give on a public forum.
Yes, you can use a Pimco bond instead of TLT and TIP. Here again, with interest rates as low as they are, it seems unlikely bonds will be the place to be over the next three to five years. However, I've thought the bond bubble would burst a year or so ago.
No, I've not heard of Betterment. I don't see any reason to pay an advisor to invest in index ETFs as it just lays on another fee.
Yes, I watch all the ETFs used in the portfolios I track. I call it the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model. I discuss this on my blog at the following URL. If you Google the full title you will come up with references.
I'm not a fan of the 60/40 stock/bond ratio, particularly when we are all waiting for interest rates to rise. That may be a few years off, but it is coming. There is no perfect portfolio so I advocate diversifying all over the globe. This includes domestic and international REITs, sovereign debt ETFs, emerging markets, commodities (gold), etc. Then hold through thick and thin unless one wants to work with a timing model such as the ITARR. The ITARR model is not for everyone.
Swensen did not recommend his "Yale Portfolio" in his Unconventional Success book. My interpretation of his recommendations comes from Chapter 3, Portfolio Construction.
As an aside, the highly leveraged funds have not done all that well recently. Apparently too many hedge fund managers are chasing too few opportunities.
I also recommended to the holder of this portfolio that they cut investments that are holding anything below 3%.
While the expense ratios are included in the analysis, this does not mean one should not find other investments to replace those with high fees. I totally agree with you on these recommendations.
Both Risk and Return are important and that is why I strive to construct portfolios that have a projected Return/Risk ratio of 0.60 or higher. One of the weaknesses of the above portfolio is that it does not meet this standard.
Clarification: Just so readers know, the above portfolio was sent to me by one of my blog readers. http://bit.ly/rfwO89 I posted the portfolio and my analysis for ITA readers. Seeking Alpha picked up the article and published it - which they have the right to do.
Optimizing The Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
The limit is 40 stocks with the QPP40 software. There is also a QPP20 where only 20 tickers can be evaluated.
If I recall, there are now 54 Dividend Aristocrates so I eliminated any with a yield below 2% and came up with 37.
You have the idea of how the optimization works. One can optimize on return, risk, beta, yield, or some other metric of your choosing, so long as it can be located in the QPP spreadsheet.
Lowell
Optimizing The Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
1) The double entry of CLX is an error. One should be CL, but when I entered it, Excel automatically "typed" CLX and I failed to catch the double entry.
2) QPP is a software program designed by Geoff Considine. To my knowledge QPP does not account for dividend growth rate.
3) To come up with the above results two spreadsheets are running in cooperation with each other. An optimizer worksheet links to the QPP spreadsheet projections and comes up with the "best" allocation of assets based on constraints one places on the investments.
More on how all this works can be found on my blog at
http://bit.ly/rfwO89
Lowell
Top Core Stocks Analyzed Using QPP Plus Delta Factor Projections [View article]
As way of explanation, Seeking Alpha editors picked this article up off my blog (http://bit.ly/rfwO89) so this piece was written for my readers. The portfolio needs to be read in the context of many other posts.
As way of color explanation, the individual holdings are compared to Vanguard's Total Market Index Fund, VTSMX. For a stock to receive a green background in the Delta column, the value must be equal or greater than 15%. That means the projected return minus historical return must be => 15%. This value is subject to change.
Lowell
Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio And Market Stages [View article]
Lowell
'Swensen Portfolio' Updated [View article]
Yes, you can use a Pimco bond instead of TLT and TIP. Here again, with interest rates as low as they are, it seems unlikely bonds will be the place to be over the next three to five years. However, I've thought the bond bubble would burst a year or so ago.
Lowell
'Swensen Portfolio' Updated [View article]
No, I've not heard of Betterment. I don't see any reason to pay an advisor to invest in index ETFs as it just lays on another fee.
Yes, I watch all the ETFs used in the portfolios I track. I call it the ITA Risk Reduction (ITARR) model. I discuss this on my blog at the following URL. If you Google the full title you will come up with references.
http://bit.ly/rfwO89
I'm not a fan of the 60/40 stock/bond ratio, particularly when we are all waiting for interest rates to rise. That may be a few years off, but it is coming. There is no perfect portfolio so I advocate diversifying all over the globe. This includes domestic and international REITs, sovereign debt ETFs, emerging markets, commodities (gold), etc. Then hold through thick and thin unless one wants to work with a timing model such as the ITARR. The ITARR model is not for everyone.
Lowell
Bullish Percent Indicators And Delta Factors For January 25, 2013 [View article]
If the Affordable Healthcare bill guarantees more money will go to healthcare, then one better buy an ETF such as VHT.
Lowell
'Swensen Portfolio' Updated [View article]
As an aside, the highly leveraged funds have not done all that well recently. Apparently too many hedge fund managers are chasing too few opportunities.
Lowell
A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
I also recommended to the holder of this portfolio that they cut investments that are holding anything below 3%.
While the expense ratios are included in the analysis, this does not mean one should not find other investments to replace those with high fees. I totally agree with you on these recommendations.
Lowell
Adding Piotroski Stocks (CRA) To A Core Index Portfolio [View article]
Lowell
A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
Again, this portfolio was submitted by a reader.
Lowell
A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
The 3.93% is the future projected return for BWX, not the historical return. It will likely do better or worse than 3.9%.
Lowell
A Portfolio That Reduces Risk [View article]
http://bit.ly/rfwO89
I posted the portfolio and my analysis for ITA readers. Seeking Alpha picked up the article and published it - which they have the right to do.
So read the article and analysis in that context.
Lowell
ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
Lowell
ITA Dozen: A Simple 12-ETF Portfolio [View article]
Here is the URL for the Bullish Percent Indicator (BPI) article.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Lowell