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Lowell Herr  

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  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Bazooooka,

    While I do not use leverage, options, etc., one investor and author on my blog does use options with a portfolio called the Hawking. He also will use options with his Rutherford portfolio.

    I have not been successful using inverse ETFs so I gave that up. This is not to say someone with more skill could not hedge a portfolios such as that described above.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Masmon,

    A "noise" factor was introduced in the back-tests that continue to be investigated over at ITA. As investors, we rarely make all our portfolio adjustments on the specified date of the portfolio review. For example, if we set limit or Trailing Stop Loss Orders, those orders are likely to trade a few days after the review date. For this reason, a "noise" factor of -2 to 5 days is introduced in the Monte Carlo analysis. What this means is that for some runs the trades are made two days before scheduled and other times the trades are made up to five days after the scheduled review. These variations have a major impact on the final performance results.

    These are just some of the reasons why I am not satisfied with one shot analysis runs.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 30, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back-Testing Results Are Filled With Uncertainty - Turn On Your 'Doubt Meter' [View article]
    Investors interested in back-testing procedures will find this series of "Robust" articles of interest. This is the first of three currently available with more to come.

    http://tinyurl.com/pl5...

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Google "robust ITA momentum" and you will find numerous links to research that is related to momentum investing.

    Lowell
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Masmon,

    If you are following the "Robust" series of articles (http://itawealth.com) you will see that a one time back-test can be misleading. However, the general trend is positive. That gives the investor the edge, even if the final results vary.

    Lowell
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Bunny,

    Yes it is, but there are differences. The review period is different, but the major difference is the look-back period. Antonacci uses a 12-month look-back, but we found that is too long. Granted, we did not use 40 years of data for back-testing as our securities did not go back that far.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Another portfolio to watch is the Galileo as I am using a momentum model with that portfolio.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Yes, going to SHY when all other securities in the portfolio are performing below SHY is a way to avoid major bear markets. Another option is to move to a money market.

    The 33-day review period will catch most bear markets as bear markets take time to develop. The spreadsheet has other early warning signals such as the "Golden Cross." This is when the 13-Day Exponential Moving Average moves from above to below its 49-Day EMA.

    I sent you the information on SS access.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Here is the logic behind using the 33-day review period.

    http://bit.ly/1Nb3Mxd

    Lowell
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    TMD,

    How true as to correlations going to 1 in bear markets such as we experienced in 2008 and early 2009. When you see the graphs presented on the above approach you will see this model helped to avoid the cratering of the portfolio.

    Most of the testing took place on a portfolio made up of 10 ETFs plus SHY. We used the Rutherford 10 for most of the back-testing. If you search "Rutherford 10" you will see a lot of references to this portfolio - a live portfolio managed by HedgeHunter.

    Lowell
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    If I missed sending someone information, let me know as the SA notification icon is not working all that well.

    Lowell
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    The spreadsheet picks up returns over specified periods. I use 87 to 91 days for ROC1 and set the weight to 30%. For Return of Capital (ROC2) the number of calendar days is set to 145 with a weight of 50%. Volatility is set to 20%.

    There are different Exponential Moving Averages measured as well as the "Golden Cross." These are explained in more detail on the blog.

    If you want more information I suggest you check out the 7.1.3 spreadsheet, soon to become 8.0.

    Lowell
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Makatol,

    I'll send you the information in a moment. To answer the Canada question, while I've not sought out Canadian ETFs, they must be available. Here is what to look for.

    Find an ETF that covers the entire equity spectrum of Canada. Next, find an ETF that closely matches VEU as VEU not only includes developed, but emerging market equities as well. Third, look for an intermediate to long-term bond ETF. The last ingredient in this mixture is to find a low volatile treasury ETF. Again, look for something that closely tracks SHY.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 23, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    The spreadsheet I use is extremely easy to use. After the securities are selected - only three plus SHY in this example, it is a one click operation every 33 days. It does not get much easier than this.

    Lowell
    http://itawealth.com
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan [View article]
    Sunny,

    The momentum model does provide for global diversification. Yes, it is a mechanical model and does not require specific insights.

    Using SHY as the "circuit breaker" ETF keeps one out of major problems when bear markets strike.

    Lowell
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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